MLB DFS Slate Preview: Monday, August 21st
Erik Wardenburg previews the Monday, August 21st slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Seven game main slate to begin the week (CIN/LAA was PPD), with overall good weather and a nice variety of pitching options. Lefty SP Drew Rom will make his MLB debut for the Cardinals, and Allan Winans will get another start for the Braves in a rematch with the Mets, who he dominated nine days ago.
Castillo and Montgomery lead the way for top pitching options, while the Braves are in another smash spot hitting at home in 90 degree temps against Peterson. A few other offenses have projected totals above 5 runs currently, so we have plenty of pivots from ATL for lower owned stacks. Let’s check out today’s news, notes, and some MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- CIN/LAA has already been postponed due to the the hurricane.
- KCR/OAK is our only game with even a hint of possible rain, but even there it looks like any rain should stay East of Oakland and not impact the game. Temps in the high 60s, with 10mph wind out to left center.
- NYM/ATL is by far the best hitting weather, with temps in the low 90s, 50+% humidity, and a slight breeze out to center. STL/PIT is also solid hitting conditions, with temps in the low 80s and 8-9mph wind out to right center.
- SEA/CHW will be in the low 70s, with a 5-8mph left to right breeze. MIA/SDP will be in the 60s, with a slight breeze out to right.
- Dome games today are BOS/HOU & TEX/ARI.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Michael Harris was scratched from the lineup yesterday with a foot contusion, but for now he’s expect to be back in there for ATL. Against a lefty, I’d expect we see Vaughn Grissom get the start at 2B over Lopez.
- Casas dealt with a tooth infection over the weekend, but there’s a chance he returns to the BOS lineup today. Duran left early yesterday with a toe contusion, so he may need at least a game off.
- Kyle Tucker wanted to play yesterday, but was held out another day coming back from an illness, but he should be back in there today.
- JP Crawford will come off the concussion IL and get his leadoff spot back for Seattle. Julio Rodriguez is getting a rest day.
- Tim Anderson continues to serve his 5-game suspension, so look for Andrus to remain at leadoff, while Sosa should continue to get most of the time at 2B. Jimenez is off the paternity list and will start at DH regularly again, while Sheets is getting the start at 1B today over Vaughn.
- Ryan Noda is expected back for Oakland today, and we’ll see if he makes the lineup against a lefty opener for KC.
- ATL is the obvious top stack hitting in the best weather with the highest projected run total of the slate. STL and TEX are my next favorite stacks, while SDP and SEA round out my top five.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Allan Winans ($6,500) is currently the best p/$ projected SP, and it’s hard to argue with it as he threw 111 pitches in his last major league start, shutting out this same Mets team over 7 innings with 9 strikeouts. The only downside for Winans is the Mets are also hitting in fantastic weather for bats, and they know what to expect from him this time around, but I think for this cheap of a salary we can still use Winans in cash games. Drew Rom ($5,500) is another excellent value option that I would make sure to have exposure to in GPPs, and Paul Blackburn ($7,800) is definitely worth having exposure to as well with three 43+ FP games in his last four outings. If you want to spend up at SP in cash games then Castillo ($10,700) is the top choice, while Montgomery ($10,300) should also be in your GPP pool.
I like taking higher than 4.0 strikeouts for Winans on Underdog, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Michael Harris ($3,100) and Tyler O’Neill ($2,700) both remain too cheap and are my favorite p/$ bats of the slate. Ozuna ($3,000) is my next favorite value from ATL, while Edman ($2,900) and Contreras ($2,800) are more great values from STL.
- I like using a couple value bats from Seattle such as Suarez ($2,800), Raleigh ($2,900), or France ($2,800). The Padres offer a couple nice value bats in Kim ($3,100) and Bogaerts ($2,900), while Chisholm ($3,000) is my favorite target from Miami
- Drew Rom ($4,000) is just way too cheap on DK given what he’s done in the minors this season (10.95 K/9), and against a strikeout prone Pirates team, I will be taking the chance on Rom hopefully getting 15+ FP in cash games. Winans ($7,500) is still a fantastic value and pairing him with Rom will let you really load up on bats, but you can still make a very strong lineup going with Castillo ($10,300). Blackburn ($7,000) and Montgomery ($9,800) remain top GPP options.
- O’Neill ($3,700) remains a cash game lock for me from STL, while Edman ($4,300), Contreras ($4,000), and Walker ($3,200) are all in play, depending on your positional needs. Harris ($4,800) and Ozuna ($4,500) remain top p/$ targets from ATL, along with Kim ($4,700) and Bogaerts ($4,600) from SDP.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!