MLB DFS Slate Preview: Monday, August 7th
Erik Wardenburg previews the Monday, August 7th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Really fun 8-game main slate to begin the week, as there’s at least five SPs you could argue as cash game options, and currently four offenses have projected run totals above five. Temps have cooled down a bit across the country, as all the games will be below 80, and we do have a couple games with some potential rain that could cause a delay.
Let’s check out some MLB DFS picks along with todays news and notes!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- ATL/PIT is rated yellow as early rain looks pretty likely, so a delay or late start is on the table. Forecasts have it clearing pretty quickly though, so a full game after a late start looks like the most likely outcome. Temps in the low 70s, with 10-13mph wind blowing right to left.
- CHC/NYM is also rated yellow, with a decaying storm system moving in during the game. If the storm is strong enough, we could see a late start/delay, but either way they should get a full game in eventually. Temps in the mid 70s, with 15-20mph wind blowing right to left and slightly out to left. (Update: latest models are looking a bit worse, so Roth is putting it at orange/yellow rated now)
- TOR/CLE will be in the high 60s, with 15mph left to right wind. KCR/BOS will be in the low 70s, with 10mph right to left wind. NYY/CHW will be in the low 70s, with 5-10 left to right wind. SFG/LAA will be in the low 70s,with a slight breeze out to left. TEX/OAK will be in the 60s, with 5-10mph wind out to left center. COL/MIL is the lone dome game.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Palacios, Rivas, and Hayes are getting breathers for PIT, so Joe will hit leadoff and play 1B and Triolo will handle 3B.
- Seiya Suzuki continues to lose playing time against righties, as he’s been out of the lineup the last three times the Cubs have faced a righty SP. The arrival of Candelario at 1B has moved Bellinger to full-time OF, and they’ve been going with Morel as the regular DH.
- Willy Adames is getting a day off for MIL, so Turang will handle SS with Monasterio at 2B. Frelick moves up to clean-up.
- Salvador Perez was hit in the hand yesterday and will get today off, so Fermin will catch and Melendez will DH.
- Starling Marte is going on the IL and Bretty Baty is being DFA’d. Arauz is back up and Abraham Almonte as well to help in the OF.
- Kevin Kiermaier received stitches in his elbow after crashing in to the wall yesterday and will sit today. Merrifield is also out, so Schneider will hit leadoff and is a great value option.
- Boston hasn’t faced a lefty starter in forever, so Refsnyder will get the start at leadoff with Duran and Verdugo getting a breather. Reyes will get the start at SS over Chang today.
- Seby Zavala went on the IL, so Grandal should get most of the catching duty for now, although Carlos Perez is back up to help there, too. Amateur boxer Tim Anderson should be back at leadoff after getting yesterday off.
- Estrada came off the IL Saturday for the Giants and immediately got his 2-hole spot back even against two righties. Against a lefty today, look for SF to load up on righties as they can start eight of them.
- Josh Jung broke his thumb yesterday and will be out indefinitely for Texas. They are expected to call up infielder Jonathan Ornelas to help at 3B, although Ezequiel Duran should see plenty of time there as well now.
- Esteury Ruiz is out of the A’s lineup so Cody Thomas will hit leadoff today. Rooker is also out and Tony Kemp is back in there after missing some time.
- The Braves and Brewers are my top stacks today. I like their matchups better than BOS and TEX, who also have very high projected run totals.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Coming off a 63 FP game with 11 strikeouts, Dane Dunning ($8,400) gets a fantastic matchup against Oakland today. He is an extremely tempting cheap SP that I am expecting to see in some cash game lineups. Using Dunning will make it much easier to stack Braves, and I would make sure to have some of that combo in GPPs. Spencer Strider ($11,500) is over $3k pricier but is the clear highest-upside SP on the board, as the Pirates have a projected run total below 3 currently. I will do my best to fit him in as my cash game SP. Freddy Peralta ($10,500) is $1k cheaper and also draws an excellent matchup at home against the Rockies, who currently have a run total just above 3. If Peralta was below $10k, I would consider him the best p/$ SP of the slate, but I think it should be easy enough to find the extra $1k of salary to get Strider. Somehow Gerrit Cole ($11,000) is my 4th favorite p/$ option today, and with a ton of ownership likely going to Strider/Peralta, Cole is someone worth going overweight on in GPPs or someone to go with in cash games if you want to be more unique at SP.
- Christian Yelich ($3,600) remains underpriced and is the first bat I’m locking in to cash games. All of the other Brewers bats are solid value options as well, and I may end up with Contreras ($3,100) and/or Adames ($3,000) in my main build for a mini stack of my second favorite offense of the slate. (Update: Adames isn’t starting today)
I like taking higher than 2.0 hits+runs+rbis for Yelich on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- We definitely want some ATL exposure in our main build, and Ozzie Albies ($3,700) is the cheapest of their big four bats, so he’ll be my 2B in cash games. Acuna ($4,700) is clearly the highest upside Braves bat given his SB upside, so I will do my best to jam him in. Meanwhile, Olson ($4,500) and Riley ($4,000) are luxury options if you find yourself with enough salary available.
- I’m going to the Rangers next and their 5.5 run total against the lefty Waldichuk. With Jung out, we could see Duran ($2,900) hit third today, which would make him a top value play of the slate and easy to fit in at either 2B, SS, or OF. Mitch Garver ($2,900) is the same price and another great value target likely hitting sixth, while Semien ($3,600) and Garcia ($3,700) are both very affordable. It doesn’t hurt that Semien has some extra motivation against his former A’s team, along with the fact he’s on a seven-game hit streak with three HR’s in that span.
- More value bats I like today include Schneider ($2,400), Guerrero ($3,400), Springer ($3,000), Chapman ($3,000), Refsnyder ($2,600), Duvall ($2,900), Urias ($2,300), Massey ($2,500), and Gonzalez ($2,500).
- Freddy Peralta ($9,600) is an absolute steal at this price, and will likely be the highest owned SP in DK cash games for good reason. After Peralta, it’s between Strider ($12,800) and Dunning ($7,200) for me, and right now I’m leaning towards the much cheaper Dunning against OAK. He’s shown big-time upside and the bats you can fit with him have way more upside than the value bats you’ll need with Strider. Cole ($11,300) remains an elite GPP play, and I don’t mind having some Ragans ($5,200) shares coming off his huge 28.7 FP performance.
- I’m not considering Yelich ($5,600) a must-play at this price, but going with two cheap SPs will make it very easy to fit him, and he’s still my favorite way to get MIL exposure. Santana ($4,100) and Frelick ($4,200) are strong mid-range MIL bats, while Contreras ($4,900) and Adames ($5,000) remain solid plays, but I don’t love their prices. (Update: Adames isn’t starting today)
- All of the ATL bats remain expensive, but Albies ($5,600) is still my favorite p/$ target. Ozuna ($4,500) and Rosario ($3,900) are fine cheap ways to get more ATL exposure. Duran ($3,700) and Garver ($3,500) are two of my favorite value bats of the slate, and using both will really help fit in Strider.
- Schneider ($2,700), Refsnyder ($2,700) and Bauers ($2,600) are a few extreme salary savers I like today, and some other strong value options to consider include Belt ($3,300), Gonzalez ($2,600), Arias ($2,700), Melendez ($3,000), Massey ($2,500), Urias ($3,000), and Slater ($3,200).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!