MLB DFS Slate Preview: Monday, July 17
Erik Wardenburg previews the Monday, July 17th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
It’s a solid 10-game main slate today to start the week, and like the weekend, we’ll have to navigate a couple of games with rain concerns.
Grayson Rodriguez is back with the Orioles to start today, and the Pirates have a trio of guys making their MLB debuts, in SP Quinn Priester and hitters Liover Peguero and Endy Rodriguez. The Reds also promoted top prospect Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who should find a spot in the lineup most days at various positions.
Lots of news and notes to get to, along with some MLB DFS picks, so let’s build some lineups!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- CLE/PIT is looking at multiple rounds of storms, so I will likely avoid SPs here and may get off any hitters if the current orange/yellow rating gets downgraded closer to lock. It shouldn’t rain the entire night, but it could be a scenario with multiple in-game delays and possibly worse if the storms bunch together instead of spreading out.
- SFG/CIN also looks pretty risky with a yellow/orange rating currently. Rain is possible at any time during the game, with an increasing chance the later the game goes. SPs are completely off the table for me here, and I will likely look elsewhere for cash game bats.
- MIA/STL could see a late start, but the game should play fine eventually without issue. Great hitting weather with temps in the 80s, 60%+ humidity, and a slight breeze out to right.
- LAD/BAL is worth keeping an eye on closer to lock, as a few showers and storms are forecasted west of Baltimore, but as of now, no models have them making it far enough east to impact the game. Also great hitting weather here with temps in the high 80s, 50%+ humidity, and 5-8mph wind out to left.
- DET/KC will be in the 80s, WSH/CHC will be in the low 70s, NYY/LAA will be in the 70s, and BOS/OAK will be in the 60s. Dome games are MIN/SEA and TB/TEX.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Heyward hurt his neck yesterday but is back in the lineup for LAD. Chris Taylor will get the start at SS and Rojas will get a breather. Mullins remains out for BAL, while Hays and Westburg are getting days off.
- The Pirates are going to have a variety of different lineups the rest of the way with two more prospects getting called up today in Peguero and Rodriguez. Peguero will get starts at SS and 2B, while Rodriguez can play C, 1B, and LF. I’d expect both to start today and most days, while older players like McCutchen and possibly Santana may start losing more playing time.
- The Reds finally promoted Encarnacion-Strand, who can play 1B, 3B, and OF. Today Steer is the odd man out, and De La Cruz has moved up to the leadoff spot.
- With Edman still on the IL and STL facing a lefty, I’d expect either Walker or Carlson to take the leadoff spot today.
- Yandy Diaz should be back for the Rays after missing the maximum of three games on the paternity list.
- Jeimer Candelario was a late scratch yesterday with a thumb issue, so consider him questionable today for the Nationals.
- Salvador Perez left yesterday with a hamstring injury, so he’ll likely miss some time. Freddy Fermin should get most of the starts at catcher now for KC. They’re also going with Isbel at leadoff and giving Garcia a day off.
- Donaldson went on the IL over the weekend and Peraza took his spot on the roster. LeMahieu should get most of the 3B starts now, while IKF and Cabrera can help there too.
- Devers is getting a day off for Boston, so Turner will handle 3B and Verdugo is up to second in the order.
- The Red Sox are my top stack today against Blackburn and his 4.86 ERA this season. Blackburn is allowing a .318 average to lefties this year, so I’d load up on as many of Boston’s lefties as you can. LAD and BAL are my next favorite stacks hitting in fantastic weather and both facing righties with blowup potential. TB is another stack I like today, while both DET and KC are my top “sneaky stacks.”
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Jesus Luzardo ($10,300) has been the most consistent SP lately of our available cash game options, with four straight starts over 50 FP on FanDuel. A matchup on the road against the Cardinals in great hitting weather isn’t exactly ideal. Still, his track record lately, along with his very affordable salary, makes him one of the “safest” cash game options with a high floor and elite ceiling. I’m going to let others risk McClanahan ($10,000), who could be somewhat limited in his first start off the IL in a tough matchup @ Texas. Logan Gilbert ($9,900) is my other top cash game SP along with Luzardo, and I’ll likely go with Gilbert as he’s in a better pitchers’ park, and I like his matchup with MIN. Sonny Gray ($9,600) is one of my favorite GPP targets against a Seattle team that is averaging just 2.2 runs per game over their last five games.
- The Boston lefties are too cheap, and I will likely have at least three of them in my cash game lineup. Yoshida ($3,300) is my favorite play of the slate coming off a 51.4 FP game, along with multi-hit games in nine of his last ten starts. Duran ($3,200) is my next target, assuming he hits leadoff, followed by Devers ($3,800), who should be over $4k by now. Casas ($2,800) is another excellent value lefty to complete the full stack, as he’s homered in three straight games and his salary hasn’t budged. (Update: Devers is not starting today)
I like taking higher than 8.5 fantasy points for Yoshida on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- The top LAD bats are all very pricey, so if I have the salary for one or two, it will be for Betts ($4,400) and/or Freeman ($4,300). Baltimore is full of value and I’ll likely round out my cash game lineup from them, as they don’t have any rain concerns and the hitting weather in Camden is too good to pass up. Gunnar Henderson ($3,000) is my top play hitting leadoff, as he’s still way underpriced, while Rutschman ($3,000) is also still too cheap. Santander ($3,300) has an 8-game hitting streak, including three HRs over his last four games, so adding him to your BAL stack makes for an ideal value trio at the top of the order.
- Raley ($3,300) and B. Lowe ($2,900) would be my top values if you want some cash game Rays exposure. From KC/DET, I’d consider McKinstry ($2,400), Carpenter ($2,900), Massey ($2,200), Witt ($3,300), and Melendez ($2,700) as guys to fill a spot or two in your main build.
- Luzardo ($10,200) and Gilbert ($9,800) remain my favorite cash game SP combo on DK. Matt Manning ($6,800) and MacKenzie Gore ($7,900) are decent cheaper options if you absolutely need more salary for your bats.
- Yoshida ($4,400), Duran ($3,900), Devers ($5,000), and Casas ($2,600) all remain underpriced and are my top cash game targets. If you want a fifth Red Sox bat to complete a full stack then either Turner ($4,300) or Verdugo ($4,200) are who I’d go with depending on your positional needs. (Update: Devers is not starting today)
- Max Muncy ($4,600) and David Peralta ($3,200) are my favorite p/$ plays from LAD. From Baltimore, I’m looking at Henderson ($4,700) and Santander ($4,500) mostly, as Rutschman ($5,100) is very expensive, and there are plenty of value catchers in play like Soderstrom ($2,600) or Thaiss ($3,000).
- If the weather in Cincinnati cooperates, then the Giants have some great value options with the platoon advantage against Williamson. Slater ($3,400), Flores ($3,200), Davis ($4,300), and Matos ($2,800) are all in play and make for a great value GPP stack, and you can include Bailey ($3,800) in there too for a full stack.
- Peguero ($2,000), E. Rodriguez ($2,000), and Encarnacion-Strand ($2,000) are all minimum price, so if you want to risk the rain, then they are all top extreme salary savers to consider today.
- More value bats I like today include Carpenter ($3,200), Massey ($2,500), Neto ($2,800), Abrams ($2,900), Melendez ($2,700), Suzuki ($3,200), Moustakas ($2,500), and Garrett ($2,800).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!