MLB DFS Slate Preview: Monday, June 12
Erik Wardenburg previews the Monday, June 12th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
7-game main slate to begin the week, with a lot of strong pitching for a slate this size. Zach Eflin is looking like the top spend-up coming off his second-best start of the season and now gets to face Oakland. Jesus Luzardo vs. Bryce Miller will be a fun one to end the night, and both SPs are in play at similar prices. James Paxton and Logan Webb round out the highest upside options while Matthew Liberatore is my favorite value SP today.
Boston leads the way with a 6.2-run total currently, while a few other teams are sitting at 5+ projected runs, so there are plenty of great bats to choose from. Let’s get to today’s news, notes, and MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Very quiet weather news today as only COL/BOS has any kind of rating. Some spotty drizzles could happen during the game, but it shouldn’t be enough to stop play, and we’ll see a 10mph right to left breeze with temps in the low 70s to high 60s.
- SF/STL and CIN/KC will be in the low 70s to high 60s as well, with both seeing very slight breezes from left to right. TBR/OAK will be in the low 60s with 5-10mph wind out to right-center.
- Dome games today include LAA/TEX, PHI/ATL, and MIA/SEA.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Charlie Blackmon will be out multiple weeks with a broken hand, so Profar/Grichuk/Jones/Doyle will get pretty much all the OF work now. Coco Montes was called up for Blackmon and should get most of the 2B time, with Trejo being sent down. Elias Diaz is back in the lineup after missing a game.
- Yoshida is getting a day off for Boston, so Duran will get another start at leadoff and play LF while Duvall is back in the lineup hitting fifth.
- We should see the Giants start all their available righties against the lefty Liberatore, and STL made a slight change to their lineup yesterday, moving Carlson up to sixth.
- Fraley went on the IL over the weekend, and TJ Friedl came off the IL and should be the regular leadoff hitter against righties. Pasquantino also went on the IL over the weekend, so Pratto should get most of the 1B starts now, and KC can rotate plenty of guys at DH. KC called up speedster Dairon Blanco who will start in LF tonight and sent Bradley down.
- Alec Bohm is off the IL with Ellis being sent down for him, and against the lefty Henry, I’d expect Bohm to play 1B and either Sosa or Harrison to start at 3B. Carson Kelly is back for AZ and hitting seventh, while Gurriel is getting a day off.
- Boston’s projected run total is currently almost a full run higher than any other team today, so they’re the clear top stack of the slate at home against Seabold. TB and TEX are currently the next top stacks with run totals between 5 and 5.5. PHI and AZ round out the top five stacks with both teams sitting at 5 projected runs. CIN, KC, and LAA are lower-owned stacks I like having exposure to in GPPs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Zach Eflin ($10,800) and James Paxton ($9,800) are my top cash game SPs, as they are facing weak offenses and both have 10+ strikeout upside today with plenty of likely run support behind them for a win. Luzardo, Miller, and Webb will round out my GPP pool for spend-ups, with Liberatore getting some exposure as well for the super cheap price of $6,500.
- Most cash games lineups will likely have 3-4 Red Sox bats in them, as they are too cheap for a team with a 6+ run total. Rafael Devers ($3,700) continues to be about $500-800 too cheap and is the highest-upside play of the slate. Justin Turner ($2,900) is my favorite value bat from BOS, as he’s hitting .455 over his last three games and should have plenty of RBI opportunities today. Adam Duvall ($2,800) is my next top p/$ target, followed by Duran ($2,800), Verdugo ($3,200), and Casas ($2,500).
- Trea Turner ($3,000) has been this price for seven straight games now, which seems crazy as he’s had games of 50.1 FP and 27.6 FP during that stretch. Hitting second with the platoon advantage today puts him right back in play as the top p/$ shortstop of the slate for cash games. Realmuto ($2,800) and Castellanos ($3,400) also remain at fantastic prices with the platoon advantage for more cheap PHI exposure.
- I like getting some Texas exposure against Tyler Anderson, who has more ER (10) than strikeouts (8) over his last two starts. Semien ($4,100) Seager ($4,200), and Garcia ($3,800) are top spend-ups if you have the extra salary, while Lowe ($3,300) and Jung ($3,400) are strong cheaper options.
- CIN/KC is a game I like taking some cheap one-offs from, with guys like Friedl ($3,000), Steer ($3,400), and any of the top five bats in the KC order as value options to consider in your main build. It’s also worth mentioning LAA for some value bat options in Ward ($2,800), Rendon ($2,900), and Thaiss ($2,500).
- Eflin ($11,000) is $1.4k+ more than any other SP I’d consider for cash games but is still my top option if you can afford him. If you’d rather spend on more bats, then I’d go with the combo of Paxton ($9,300) and Luzardo ($9,600) in your main build, with Liberatore ($6,400) remaining my favorite extreme-value SP option.
- Justin Turner ($3,500) will be my cash game 1B, but if you want a lower-owned and cheaper 1B from Boston, Triston Casas ($2,800) is another great option. Jarren Duran ($3,500) is hitting leadoff again today and is a top value play of the slate.
- Elly De La Cruz ($4,300) continues to be underpriced on DK, and I love that you can use him at either 3B or SS. Pratto ($3,100), Melendez ($3,000), and Massey ($2,300) are a great value ministack from KC. I like taking higher than 2.0 hits+runs+rbis for De La Cruz on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Bohm ($3,400) and Rivera ($3,300) are decent value options at the 1B/3B spots, and from LAA, I will be considering Ward ($3,200) and Thaiss ($2,700) in my main build.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!