MLB DFS Slate Preview: Monday, June 19
Erik Wardenburg previews the Monday, June 19th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Seven game main slate to begin the week, with one rain spot to monitor, the long-awaited debut of Henry Davis for the Pirates, and a fantastic pitching matchup between Scherzer and Brown.
The White Sox and Giants are going with bullpen games today, and the Reds were considering an opener, but will stick with Williamson as the starter. Speaking of the Reds, they currently lead the way with a projected team total of 5.5 runs, which is almost a full run higher than any other offense today.
We’re going to need to consider a few other offenses besides the Reds in case they get rained out, so let’s check out some MLB DFS picks and today’s news and notes!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- COL/CIN is rated orange/yellow, as scattered slow moving downpours will be in the general area today. We’ll need to see whether heavy rain ends up over the ballpark or near it, so check this game closer to lock as the Reds are going to be a popular offense to target, if it sounds like this game will play. Temps in the 70s with 10mph wind in from left here.
- CHC/PIT is the only other game with any hint of rain, but at worst it sounds like a low chance of a delay could happen at some point. Temps in the 80s with 7mph wind in from left.
- BOS/MIN is today’s hottest game with temps in the high 80s along with a 10mph breeze in from right. SDP/SFG is the coolest game with temps in the 50s. TEX/CHW will be in the high 60s with 10mph wind out to right.
- Dome games today are ARI/MIL and NYM/HOU.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Joey Votto is back in the Reds lineup tonight hitting sixth. I’d strongly consider him on FanDuel where he’s just $2,000.
- The Pirates called up their first overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft yesterday in Henry Davis. Davis will almost certainly be in the lineup at C or RF, and he’s a top value play on DK at just $2k today.
- Ezequiel Tovar left early yesterday to attend the birth of his child, so he will go on the paternity list today. Connor Kaiser will take his spot on the roster and likely get most of the starts at SS like he is today. Against a lefty, we will see both Diaz and Alfaro in there at C and DH as well.
- Michael Taylor was hit in the head by a pitch yesterday, and although early testing didn’t show signs of a concussion, Baldelli said he “probably won’t be in the lineup” for today. This should give Kepler or Gallo a rare start against a lefty, while all their regular righties will find a spot in the lineup.
- Perdomo has started consecutive games at leadoff for Arizona, so I’d expect that to continue today, with Pavin Smith moving down to sixth. Jesse Winker returned from the IL over the weekend and should be the regular DH against righties now.
- Tim Anderson is dealing with shoulder soreness and remains out. Benintendi will hit leadoff today even against a lefty.
- Pete Alonso made a miraculous early recovery from his 4-6 week timeline and returned to the Mets lineup yesterday. Vientos was sent back to AAA. Alvarez is down to ninth again.
- Casey Schmitt was drilled by a fastball in the arm yesterday, and although x-rays came back negative, he may need a game off. JD Davis was able to pinch-hit recently and could be back in the lineup soon.
- If the Reds game is able to play then they are my top stack of the slate, with a healthy 5.5 team total at home against Gomber and his 7.29 ERA. TEX, CHC, COL, and PIT round out my top five stacks today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- There’s no shortage of pitching options today, as Paxton, Lopez, Scherzer, Brown, Kelly, Burnes, and Wacha all have arguments for cash game consideration. Max Scherzer ($9,000) is the cheapest from that group, as his price dropped $400 from his last start in which he scored -2 FP. Houston still has a projected total under four runs currently, so assuming Max bounces back, he has a great shot at being the top p/$ SP. His cheap salary will let you fit in the most high-priced bats in cash games. It’s so close between Burnes ($10,600), Paxton ($10,200), and Wacha ($10,000) for top spend up SP, as I like all their matchups and they’re basically the same price. I’ll give the slight edge to Paxton against MIN. Kelly, Brown, and Lopez should all be in your GPP pool if you’re doing MME, and for cheap I don’t mind having some shares of Heaney, Smyly, Bido, and Williamson.
- Assuming the COL/CIN game plays, I’m starting my cash game build with Reds bats. Spencer Steer ($3,300) remains at a great price, as he’s averaging around 15 FPPG over his last five and is my favorite p/$ play at 3B. Tyler Stephenson ($2,800) is also a strong value play with 15+ FP games in two of his last three. If Kevin Newman ($2,700) hits leadoff, he’s going to be hard to fade at that price, especially with SS eligibility. De La Cruz ($3,900) is still the highest upside play from CIN if you can fit him, but McLain ($3,800) and India ($3,600) are great options if you need the salary savings from Cruz. Votto ($2,000) is now in play as well with the news he’ll be in the lineup today.
I like taking higher than 8.5 fantasy points for De La Cruz on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- After using 3-4 CIN bats I like using one-offs from a few offenses around them. Mike Tauchman ($2,600) has been an excellent source of value lately and remains in play for an OF spot in your main build. Andrew McCutchen ($3,100) is a lefty masher and has just one strikeout in 18 career ABs against Smyly. Meanwhile, Reynolds ($3,500) and Hayes ($3,000) are both hitting over .300 in their careers against Smyly, so consider them as well. Henry Davis ($2,500) is now available on FD as well for more cheap PIT exposure.
- COL has some decent value options with the platoon advantage in Grichuk ($2,900), Diaz ($2,800), and Alfaro ($2,000). TEX/CHW has some value to consider as well in Lowe ($3,200), Jung ($3,400), Vaughn ($3,000), Burger ($3,200), and Jimenez ($3,200). From SD, I don’t mind using Machado ($3,200), Bogaerts ($3,000), or Cronenworth ($2,800) as cheap one-offs.
- Wacha ($8,300) is looking like too much of a value to fade in cash games, and at the other SP spot, I’ll likely go with Paxton ($9,300) or Scherzer ($8,800) depending on salary available.
- Newman ($3,200) is my top p/$ target from CIN, followed by Stephenson ($3,800) and Steer ($4,500). India ($4,600) and McLain ($4,700) are also very affordable, so I will almost certainly have 4-5 Reds in cash games if their game looks likely to play.
- Mike Tauchman ($2,500) is one of my favorite value plays of the slate at almost minimum price. Speaking of minimum price, we have Henry Davis ($2,000) available at catcher who will be a very popular cash game play today.
- If you don’t end up on Wacha in your main build, then I’d consider Luis Matos ($2,800) for OF value, as he’s still super cheap and worth targeting for Wacha’s reverse splits.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!