MLB DFS Slate Preview: Monday, June 26
Erik Wardenburg previews the Monday, June 26th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Small 6-game main slate to begin the week, and we do have a couple worrisome rain spots in the first two games. It’s pretty loaded at SP for such a small slate, headlined by Spencer Strider, with other strong options in Castillo, Detmers, Heaney, and Verlander.
Baltimore is calling up top infield prospect Jordan Westburg, and he is expected to be in the lineup today. He’s $2k on DK and $2.6k on FD, so no matter where he hits in the order, he has to be in cash game consideration at those prices. The Angels traded for Escobar and Moustakas over the last few days, and we’ve already seen Escobar start, but we could see Moustakas make his Angels debut today.
I really hope the weather cooperates for CIN/BAL, as the hitting weather is great and I like a lot of bats for cash games. If we have to look elsewhere, there’s plenty of other great MLB DFS picks, so let’s get to today’s news and notes!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- MIL/NYM looks the most risky as it’s rated orange/yellow, with pop-up storms during game time with increasing coverage through the end of the game. There’s also a batch of storms moving in around 10-11pm, so all three outcomes of early delay, mid-game delay, and postponement are in play depending on how much rain and where/when the storms end up hitting hardest. Because of this, Verlander and the Mets bats are just GPP plays for me, while I’m not interested in anyone from MIL. Temps in the 70s with 10-15mph right to left if the game plays.
- CIN/BAL is our next concern, currently rated yellow/orange and a likely 50/50 chance of scattered storms causing some sort of delay. We’ll see how it looks closer to lock, but if there’s a good chance they play, I am loading up bats in this game, as it’ll be in the high 70s with 5-10mph wind blowing out with mediocre pitching for both teams.
- MIN/ATL is today’s hottest game with temps in the mid 80s, 60% humidity, and 10-13mph wind blowing out to left. I don’t want any Twins against Strider, but the Braves are still very stackable against Gray.
- CHW/LAA will be in the 60s with 6mph wind blowing out, and today’s dome games are WSH/SEA and DET/TEX.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Against a lefty, Austin Hays will hit leadoff for Baltimore, and Hicks is up to cleanup. Westburg will hit seventh in his debut, Henderson is getting a day off, and Mullins will hit sixth in the L/L matchup.
- Votto is getting a breather for CIN, so Stephenson will DH and Casali will catch.
- Buxton remains out of the lineup for MIN, so Julien will DH, Correa will hit cleanup and Solano will play 2B. Lewis and Taylor are getting days off so Farmer and Castro will start for them.
- Sean Murphy will sit on the b2b so d’Arnaud will catch and Ozuna will DH.
- DET and TEX will load up on righties with two lefty SPs going, along with CHW against Detmers, and Tim Anderson is expected to go back to SS after a couple starts at 2B.
- The Angels have a lot of lineup versatility now with the additions of Escobar and Moustakas. Today Escobar is sitting with Moustakas at 3B, while Renfroe is getting a breather so Drury will handle 1B. Moniak is at leadoff with Ward hitting sixth, and they’ve flipped Trout and Ohtani in the order.
- The Orioles are my top stack today, hitting in warm weather at home against Williamson, who has allowed 3+ ER or had less than four strikeouts in five of his last seven starts. If the weather starts looking worse in BAL towards lock then I like pivoting to Texas as the top stack. They’re the only other team with a 5+ run total currently. CIN, ATL, SEA, and LAA round out my top stacks today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Strider ($11,300) is our top p/$ projected SP, has a ceiling 10 FP above the next highest, but does have a projected pOWN north of 40%. He is the clear #1 option for cash games, but just know most other cash game lineups will have him too. When an SP on a small slate is going to be this high-owned, I actually don’t mind pivoting in cash games to get a more unique hitting lineup, and hopefully my SP can stay in a similar p/$ range and my unique bats can make up the raw FP difference. Reid Detmers ($8,500) is my favorite pivot off Strider for almost $3k cheaper, as he’s had 8 strikeouts and 1 or less ER in three straight starts, and today gets a plus matchup against the White Sox. Castillo ($10,600) and Heaney ($9,200) are other SPs I like a lot today and would go overweight on in GPPs as Strider should still be very highly owned in tournaments.
- The salaries of a lot of CIN and BAL hitters are sort of forcing me to stack this game in cash games. Newman ($2,700) will hit leadoff at a fantastic salary, while Hays ($3,000) is also too cheap for the leadoff hitter on my favorite offense today. Rutschman ($3,000), Santander ($3,200), Urias ($2,500), Westburg ($2,600), and Hicks ($2,400) are all in play for value from BAL, while Steer ($3,300), India ($3,400), and McLain ($3,600) are very affordable options from CIN. Elly De La Cruz ($4,700) is in a tier of his own as far as salary and upside, but I would absolutely do everything possible to find a spot for him in your cash game lineup today.
I like taking higher than 1.5 total bases for McLain on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- The Rangers are more of a GPP stack offense for me than a cash game target, as most of their top bats are pricey, and Matt Boyd has actually looked pretty solid over his last four starts. Josh Jung ($3,400) would be my top p/$ play if you wanted a cash game bat for exposure to their 5+ projected run total, followed by Heim ($3,200) and Duran ($2,800).
- Sonny Gray has really struggled lately with just one game above five strikeouts in his last seven starts, and that will likely continue with a brutal matchup in Atlanta. The Braves don’t have a massive team total, but its still pretty solid around 4.75 runs, so I don’t mind using a couple of their cheap bats in cash games. Ozzie Albies ($3,500) and Austin Riley ($3,300) fit that bill today at excellent salaries, so I will likely use at least one in my main build. Ozuna ($3,000) and Rosario ($2,900) are decent value options for more cheap exposure.
- Seattle could go under-the-radar today as an offense, but they are full of value as only Julio Rodriguez ($3,700) is above $3k in their projected lineup. We’ll see if there’s any room left in cash games after using bats from the offenses mentioned above, but if there is I don’t mind using Kelenic ($3,000) or Hernandez ($3,000) in the OF, France ($2,900) at 1B, or even Crawford ($2,800) at SS. Overall this is an offense worth stacking in GPPs and using as one-offs in cash games.
- The Angels are tough today as they are clearly an offense that can go off in any matchup. However, they face a pretty tough SP in Cease, who has allowed 2 or less ER in four straight starts. I doubt I’ll find room for Ohtani ($4,400) or Trout ($4,000) in cash games at those prices, but if you really want some cheap exposure to them then I’d consider Ward ($2,800), Drury ($3,100), Thaiss ($2,500), or Moniak ($2,700) as one-offs.
- Strider ($12,600) is super expensive so his ownership could be a bit lower compared to FD, but if you can fit him with a hitting lineup you love then he’s still the clear highest upside cash game play. Andrew Heaney ($8,000) and Reid Detmers ($7,300) are jumping out as excellent values today, and one if not both will almost certainly make my main build. Using both in cash games will make it so much easier to fit in more top bats, and currently Detmers is out top p/$ play, while Heaney is right there with Strider as far as p/$ projection. Castillo ($11,000) remains and elite GPP play, while Cease ($7,700) is worth having some exposure to at this low of a salary.
- Jordan Westburg ($2,000) is easily my favorite cash game SS at minimum price no matter where he hits in the order. The great news with Westburg is that using him doesn’t prevent you from using McLain ($4,700) or De La Cruz ($5,800), as they can be used at the 2B and 3B spots with their dual eligibilities. Kevin Newman ($2,800) remains a top value option at 1B/3B, while Hays ($3,800), Santander ($4,400), Urias ($2,900), and Hicks ($2,600) are all fantastic values.
- If you can’t fit Rutschman ($5,400) at catcher, then I’d go with Cal Raleigh ($4,400), and if you want more cheap SEA exposure then look at France ($3,500), Hernandez ($3,700), and Suarez ($3,400). Mike Ford ($2,100) is a decent extreme punt, while Julio Rodriguez ($5,200) is always a potential slate winner.
- Ward ($3,900), Thaiss ($3,300), and Moniak ($4,000) remain my favorite values from the Angels, while Ozuna ($4,100) and Rosario ($3,800) are decent values from ATL.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!