MLB DFS Slate Preview: Monday, June 5
Erik Wardenburg previews the Monday, June 5th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We have a 7-game main slate to begin the week, with no rain to worry about and great weather for all of the outdoor games. Andrew Abbott will make his MLB debut for the Reds, and right now he’s only available on DraftKings for the minimum price of $4,000. I’m sure FanDuel will add him later today, but for that price in one of the best matchups for a lefty SP, Abbot is squarely in play for DK cash games. (Update: Abbott is now on FD for $8k)
The A’s have lost 14 straight road games, so Johan Oviedo is looking like a great value SP pitching at home against them. Aaron Nola tops the elite SPs for today at home against Detroit, while Blake Snell is starting to turn things around with consecutive starts of 6+ strikeouts and 1 or less ER. Alek Manoah continues his downward slide with seven straight starts of 2+ ER, and against Houston today, he’s just a GPP option. And even there I’ll likely go pretty light on him.
There’s currently seven teams with projected run totals of 4.75 or higher, so lots of great MLB DFS picks to get to along with today’s news and notes!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- MIL/CIN is the warmest game today with temps in the low 80s to mid 70s. OAK/PIT and DET/PHI will be in the mid 70s, with PIT seeing 5-8mph wind out to center, and PHI seeing a 7-10mph breeze in from left.
- CHC/SDP will be in the low 60s to high 50s with a 6-8 mph breeze out to center. Dome games today are STL/TEX, HOU/TOR, and KCR/MIA.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Schwarber looks to be the permanent leadoff hitter for Philly now even against lefties. Drew Ellis is coming off an absolutely monster game yesterday, and against a lefty he’ll be back in there today hitting seventh.
- Jorge Soler remains out for Miami, so Cooper will DH and Gurriel will remain at 1B. Pasquantino is getting a day off for KC, so Pratto will play 1B and Melendez will move up to third.
- Brandon Belt is getting a day off for Toronto, so Chapman will hit cleanup, Springer will DH, and Biggio will play RF.
- Jose Altuve is likely still out with his oblique issue, so Houston is calling up infield prospect Grae Kessinger. Kessinger can play most of the infield positions so he’ll be an asset to give some guys rest days, and he may even take the 2B job away from Dubon right away until Altuve returns.
- With Adames still out and Ruf on the IL, we’ll see a slightly different lineup for the Brewers against the lefty Abbott. Owen Miller will hit leadoff, Monasterio is hitting second, and Luis Urias is off the IL and will start tonight at 3B hitting sixth.
- Fraley was at leadoff for the Reds but has been scratched, so Kevin Newman will hit leadoff and Fairchild will join the lineup.
- STL faces a lefty for the second game in a row, so I’d expect a very similar lineup with Edman at leadoff and newly promoted Luken Baker either at 1B or DH.
- Bogaerts is dealing with a nagging wrist injury and remains out, while Odor is back from his groin injury and will hit leadoff tonight.
- I don’t have a top stack between PHI, TOR, CIN, and TEX, and but they are easily my favorite offenses to target today and my cash game lineup will likely consist of mostly players from those teams. STL and PIT are a couple stacks I like for GPPs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- It’s between Aaron Nola ($10,000) and Johan Oviedo ($8,400) for cash game SP, and with the price gap not being too big I’m leaning towards Nola currently. Detroit has scored three or less runs in their last four games, and their current projected lineup is a career 6 for 29 against Nola. Oviedo has 5+ strikeouts in three straight games along with 1 ER or less in three of his last four starts, so against Oakland he has the upside to be the top p/$ SP. Make sure to have exposure to him in GPPs if you go with Nola in cash games, and I also like having exposure to Snell, Abbott, and Garrett in tournaments.
- Hitting in warm weather against a very average lefty, the Phillies are a great offense to target today, and pretty much everyone in their lineup is underpriced. Besides Harper ($4,100) everyone is $3,300 or less, so the full stack of Schwarber, Castellanos, Turner, and Realmuto will cost you just above $12k total making them one of the best value stacks of the slate, and I’d expect most cash game lineups to have at least two Philly bats in them. Drew Ellis ($2,000) is coming off a two HR game and is still minimum price, so I don’t mind taking a shot on him at 3B for extreme value. I like taking higher than 1.5 total bases for Castellanos on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus offer.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Teheran is someone I’m always going to target bats against, especially in a hitters’ park with temps in the 80s. Newman ($3,100) is a solid value option hitting leadoff, while McLain ($3,400), India ($3,600), and Steer ($3,500) are all high upside options at a variety of infield positions.
- The Rangers continue to put up huge run totals with 12 and 16 runs in their last two games, and with a 5 run projected total at home I’d get some exposure to them in your main build. Nate Lowe ($3,200) is my top p/$ target, while Corey Seager ($3,900) is my top overall option from them. Garcia ($3,600) and Heim ($3,300) would be my next targets if you have want more exposure.
- Springer ($3,300), Varsho ($3,100), and Chapman ($3,200) are a great value stack from TOR, while Odor ($2,800), Machado ($2,800) and Cronenworth ($2,700) are a cheap mini stack from SD if you want exposure there. Edman ($2,800), Contreras ($2,800), Arenado ($3,100), and Baker ($2,000) are all solid cash games options with the platoon advantage on Perez. Arraez ($3,100), De La Cruz ($2,900), and Sanchez ($2,800) are one of my favorite GPP value stacks from Miami.
- With Abbott ($4,000) available on DK for minimum price, I’m going to be using him in my cash game lineup. The Brewers have the lowest team average against lefties, and Abbott is an above-average prospect who has 25+ FP upside in his range of outcomes today. Johan Oviedo ($6,900) is also looking way too cheap against Oakland, and the combo of him and Abbott will allow you to make a loaded cash game hitting lineup. Aaron Nola ($10,200) is still a great play if you have the extra salary, but for now I’ll just be using him in GPPs, along with Garrett ($8,300) and Snell ($9,700).
- Castellanos ($4,500) and Realmuto ($4,600) are my top targets from Philly, and if you do go with Nola in cash games, Drew Ellis ($2,000) is a solid salary saver to help you fit him.
- Newman ($2,600) is my top p/$ bat from CIN, and with Steer ($4,300) hitting cleanup I think he’s a solid pivot at 1B over chalkier options.
- Luken Baker ($2,000) is a top p/$ cash game play of the slate hitting fifth today for STL. Jesus Sanchez ($3,200) remains a fantastic value at OF, and PIT offers some nice value options in Joe ($3,300), Santana ($2,900), and Hayes ($4,100). Rougned Odor ($3,000) is now a top value option hitting leadoff for SD.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!