MLB DFS Slate Preview: Monday, May 15
Erik Wardenburg previews the Monday, May 15th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’re starting the week with a solid ten-game slate that will have really nice weather overall. It’s also looking like a high-scoring slate, as we currently have six offenses with projected run totals above 5.
Coors Field remains in play with the Reds in town, while the Rockies will be without CJ Cron as he deals with back spasms. The Rangers are calling up lefty Cody Bradford to make his MLB debut. We’re also looking at a couple opener situations today as the Phillies will use Brogdon before Falter, while the Yankees will use Cordero before Brito.
Plenty more news and notes along with some MLB DFS picks so let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- CIN/COL looks like some potential rain, although it should be light enough to play through possibly after a short delay. MIL/STL may also see some light rain but should play fine.
- SEA/BOS and MIL/STL are today’s warmest games with temps in the high 60s to low 70s, and BOS will see 10mph wind blowing out to right-center.
- MIN/LAD, PHI/SF, ARI/OAK, KC/SDP, and CIN/COL will all be in the low 60s to high 50s, with the former three all seeing about 5-10mph wind blowing out.
- Today’s dome games are CHC/HOU, ATL/TEX, and NYY/TOR.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Willson Contreras will go back to regular catching duties after a string of DH starts, while Dylan Carlson will get at least today off after spraining his ankle yesterday. This will give Donovan and Burleson starts in the OF alongside Nootbaar. Meanwhile Gorman, DeJong, and Edman will handle DH/SS/2B.
- The Reds are calling up infield prospect Matt McLain today, and he’ll start right away at SS and hit second today. TJ Friedl has landed on the IL and is the corresponding move for McLain.
- CJ Cron left early yesterday with back spasms and will require an IL stint. Profar and Diaz are getting days off so Wynns will catch and McMahon will move up to second in the order. Moustakas will hit cleanup and play 1B.
- LeMahieu and Bader are getting days off for the Yankees, so Bauers will stay at leadoff, Torres will hit cleanup, and Hicks will take an OF spot.
- Boston is giving Yoshida a day off, so Duran will move up to leadoff and Tapia will join the lineup hitting sixth.
- Arizona is giving Christian Walker a day off, so Gurriel will move to cleanup, Smith will play 1B, and Thomas will join the lineup.
- MJ Melendez is getting a day off for KC, so Pratto will hit cleanup and Dozier will start in RF.
- James Outman is getting a day off for LAD, so Peralta will join the lineup as the third OF.
- Toronto is my top stack today, as they’re at home and will see a lot of Brito even if he follows an opener. This season Brito has been a reverse splits pitcher allowing a .292 average to righties compared to .241 to lefties, and the Blue Jays are full of righty power bats. He also has just a 15.3% K rate to righties along with a 2.70 HR/9. AZ and SD are my next favorite stacks, as both have run totals around 5.4 and are facing very mediocre righties. I have to include CIN as a top-five stack today in Coors against the low strikeout Seabold. SEA rounds out my top five hitting in great weather in Fenway.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Framber Valdez ($10,700) has been excellent this year, with 40+ FP in six of his last seven starts. He is who I’m leaning towards currently for my cash game SP. For $1k cheaper, I’m also considering Merrill Kelly ($9,700) against Oakland, as he usually does pretty well against weaker opponents like the 58 and 40 FP he put up against WSH and COL in two of his last three starts. Peralta ($10,900), Lopez ($10,400), Kirby ($10,000), and Morton ($9,800) are other expensive SPs I’d make sure to have GPP exposure to. Also, even though he’s in Coors I think Hunter Greene ($8,800) could dominate this Rockies lineup at a great salary and potentially super low ownership.
- I’m not sure what it will take to get George Springer ($2,800) above $3k again, as it’s been almost two weeks at his current salary, and he’s been solid over that stretch with five games of 12+ FP. His HR and SB upside hitting leadoff on my favorite offense today makes him a slam dunk cash game bat at a salary that should be at least $500-$1k higher. Daulton Varsho ($3,000) is very similar as he should also be about $500 more expensive, and I will absolutely stack him with Springer for one of the highest upside combos of the slate at a fantastic price.
- Christian Yelich ($3,100) joins the underpriced outfield club as he only went up $100 overnight. Yesterday he had his third straight game of 22+ FP, and in that stretch, he’s hit three HRs and stolen two bases. He’s hitting .290 in his career against Flaherty, and at this low of a salary with his power and SB upside, I just can’t fade him in cash games until his price starts getting closer to $3.5k. Rowdy Tellez ($3,100) and Willy Adames ($3,000) remain super cheap and are great options to stack with Yelich.
- I’m sounding like a broken record, but there are just too many outfielders that shouldn’t be priced as low as they are. Kyle Tucker ($3,000) and Corbin Carroll ($3,300) are jumping out as top options. Especially Tucker, who gets a matchup with Taillon, who has allowed 7 ER and 3 HRs over his last two starts. Carroll is still getting his timing back since returning from injury and the SBs should start to pick up more, assuming he can get on base consistently again. The huge upside is still there as he has just one strikeout in his last five games, and Rucinski has been obliterated lately with 13 ERs over his last three starts. Carroll is who I’d target first for AZ exposure in cash games. I like taking higher 7.5 fantasy points or 1.5 hits+runs+rbis for Carroll on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Jake Fraley ($3,400) is another top OF target if you want CIN exposure in your main build for pretty cheap. While Tyler Stephenson ($3,200) and Spencer Steer ($3,400) are who I’d look to next from CIN in cash games.
- Jarred Kelenic ($3,100) and Julio Rodriguez ($3,400) are two more cheap OF’s I have to mention for value consideration. From SD, I’m loving the cheap stack of Machado ($2,900), Cronenworth ($2,800), and Bogaerts ($3,100). Trea Turner ($3,000) and JT Realmuto ($2,900) are another great ministack to consider for value with the platoon advantage against Wood today.
- Valdez ($10,700) and Kelly ($8,800) remain my favorite cash game SPs, while Peralta ($9,000), Kirby ($9,400), Lopez ($10,100), Morton ($8,500), and Greene ($8,300) are my favorite pool of GPP pitchers.
- Matt McLain ($2,000) is hitting second tonight for the Reds, and at minimum price he is my top p/$ bat of the slate for cash games. He’s been raking in AAA with a 1.184 OPS and gets to make his MLB debut in Coors Field. Jake Fraley ($4,200) and Spencer Steer ($3,400) are my other top value bats from CIN today.
- Dominic Fletcher ($2,400) continues to be way too cheap on DK, as he’s averaging almost 18 FPPG over his last four starts and draws another excellent matchup today against Rucinski. Pavin Smith ($3,200) is another solid value OF from AZ, and I’d look to get at least one of them in my main build today.
- Springer ($4,600) and Varsho ($4,600) remain my favorite TOR bats for the price, while Yelich ($4,700) and Tellez ($4,400) are going to be hard to fade with the platoon advantage on Flaherty and very affordable prices.
- More cheap bats to consider for cash games include Alex Kirilloff ($2,800), Trevor Larnach ($3,200), Jake Bauers ($2,000), JP Crawford ($2,900), Jesse Winker ($2,800), Brice Turang ($2,500), Jose Abreu ($2,500), Nick Pratto ($2,800), and Michael Conforto ($3,000).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!