MLB DFS Slate Preview: Monday, May 8
Erik Wardenburg previews the Monday, May 8th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’re starting the week with an eight-game main slate and pretty nice weather overall. Only three of 16 teams currently have a projected run total above 5, as there are many strong pitching options today. HOU/LAA leads the way with a game total of 9, while STL/CHC is our lowest game total currently at 7 runs. It’s cold with the wind blowing in from left in Wrigley, along with two solid starting pitchers on the mound.
The Yankees and Diamondbacks are looking like top offenses to target, but there are plenty of other MLB DFS picks I’m liking today. So let’s get to today’s news and notes!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- STL/CHC looks like tough hitting weather, as it’s the coldest game in the low 50s, along with 13mph wind blowing in from left. There’s also a low chance of storms landing over the ballpark that could cause serious delays or even worse, so make sure to monitor this game throughout the day if its risk factor gets better or worse close to lock.
- OAK/NYY is my favorite hitting weather of the slate, with temps in the low 70s to high 60s, and 10mph wind blowing out. CHW/KCR will be even warmer with temps in the mid-70s, but 5-9mph wind blowing in from left puts it just under NY for top upgrade to bats.
- HOU/LAA will be a pleasant 60-65 degrees with 5-10mph wind blowing out to center, WSH/SF will be in the mid-50s with 5-10mph wind blowing out, and today’s dome games are MIA/ARI, TEX/SEA, and LAD/MIL.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- It was announced over the weekend that Willson Contreras will get more starts at DH than C over the coming weeks, as STL brought up Barrera to handle most of the catching duties with Knizner. Against righties, we should see today’s projected lineup a lot, with Donovan, Burleson, Gorman, and Carlson rotating starts at 2B/DH/OF.
- Eloy Jimenez will be out indefinitely after an appendectomy, and Grandal was announced as getting most of the DH starts in his absence. Like STL, the White Sox have three catchers on their roster, so Seby Zavala and Carlos Perez will handle most of the C starts, with Grandal mixed in occasionally. Yoan Moncada has an outside chance of returning today, but tomorrow seems more likely.
- Chas McCormick is on track to return for Houston today, so he’ll likely start over Meyers or Julks. Michael Brantley is on track to return tomorrow.
- Kolten Wong hurt his wrist over the weekend and sat out yesterday, so for now, I’d assume he’ll be out again today with Caballero starting at 2B.
- Victor Robles landed on the IL yesterday, so Stone Garrett or newly promoted Jake Alu should start for him. We’ll see if Jeimer Candelario is able to return to the lineup after missing the last two games due to dehydration.
- The Angels are going back to Ward at leadoff and moving Neto back to 9th.
- The Dodgers are giving Will Smith and Miguel Vargas days off, so Heyward will move up to 3rd, Barnes will catch, and Busch will enter the lineup.
- Gurriel is getting the night off for AZ, so Carroll will hit 2nd and Smith will start for him.
- The Yankees are my top stack today, hitting at home in great weather. JP Sears has been solid in two of his last three starts, but he’s still given up 10 ER over that stretch and will have to face a lineup that should have 8+ righties in it. Arizona is close behind as my next favorite stack, as they too are hitting at home against a lefty that is prone to blowups. Garrett is coming off an 11 ER disaster last start including 4 HRs allowed, and the righty-heavy AZ lineup could do similar damage today. I also like CHW, HOU, SEA, and SF as stacks to cover in GPPs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- It’s between Zac Gallen ($11,300) and Nestor Cortes ($9,300) as my cash game SP today, but if I have the salary, I will do my best to force in Gallen. Cortes draws a solid matchup with OAK and has 7+ strikeouts in three of his last four games, but he also has 13 ER over his last three starts, so his floor is a lot lower than Gallen, in my opinion. Gallen has three total ER over his last five starts, and already dominated Miami once this year, going for over 50 FP.
- Luis Robert ($2,900) is standing out as a top cash game bat today, as he’s gone for 12+ FP in five straight games and is still somehow under $3k. Greinke isn’t the greatest matchup on the board, but Robert will be hitting in warm weather likely from the cleanup spot. His combination of power and potential stole base upside is just too great to fade at this low of a price.
- I love the Yankees today, especially because of how cheap they are on FD. Their entire projected lineup is under $3k, so it should be no problem stacking them or at least using 2-3 of them in your main build. Gleyber Torres ($2,800) and Harrison Bader ($2,700) are my favorite bats to start with, while Volpe ($2,700) and LeMahieu ($2,800) are solid secondary targets.
- Arizona is also an underpriced team on FD today, as only one of their projected righties is over $3k. Emmanuel Rivera ($2,800) is afantastic value option, while Ketel Marte ($3,200) and Christian Walker ($3,500) are other great targets depending on your salary and positional needs.
- Lastly, Houston has a bunch of strong value bats to consider either as a GPP stack or fill-in cash games pieces. Alex Bregman ($2,900) needs to be over $3k with his talent and remains a top value option, while Kyle Tucker ($3,200) is about $300-500 too cheap in the L/L matchup. Dubon ($2,700) and Abreu ($2,500) remain in play if you want more HOU value.
- Zac Gallen ($10,200) remains my SP1, while Nestor Cortes ($9,400) is pricey but should be a solid SP2 if you have the salary. If you want to load up on more expensive bats, then Miles Mikolas ($6,000) is a solid option. He’s pitching in some of the toughest hitting conditions of the slate, and has a great shot of going for 20+ FP. Anthony DeSclafani ($8,100) is another SP I really like today, as he’s $2,100 cheaper than FD, is coming off b2b starts of 21+ FP against STL and HOU, and gets a nice home matchup against WSH today.
- The White Sox are popping with value today, as Benintendi ($3,100), Vaughn ($3,100), Alberto ($2,300), Grandal ($3,000), and Sheets ($2,500) are just too cheap given the hitting conditions and the low strikeout pitcher their facing in Greinke. Luis Robert ($4,200) is also underpriced and remains one of my favorite cash games bats today.
- Emmanuel Rivera ($3,100) is who I’m locking in next for value, and he’ll be easy to fit in at either 1B or 3B. Walker ($4,300) is a bit more expensive, but I will do my best to get him in my cash game lineup for a mini-stack with Rivera.
- Harrison Bader ($3,500) is too cheap and will be a cash game lock at one of the OF spots, as he’s swinging a hot bat (6 for his last 11 with three extra-base hits), has the platoon advantage today, and is hitting in great weather. Volpe, Torres, and LeMahieu remain solid secondary Yankees targets. I like taking higher than 1.5 hits+runs+rbis for Bader on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, check out our Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
- The Giants have some nice value too, and with a projected team total above 5, I’d at least have some exposure to them in GPPs if not your main build. LaMonte Wade ($3,200) brings nice SB upside with some pop from the leadoff spot, while Davis ($3,700), Haniger ($3,600), and Conforto ($3,400) make for a nice cheap stack.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!