MLB DFS Slate Preview: Thursday, April 13
Erik Wardenburg previews the Thursday, April 13th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
It’s our warmest weather slate of the year as three of the five games on the main slate will be 75+ degrees, with Yankee Stadium in the 80s at first pitch. I’m expecting a pretty high scoring slate as there’s a lot of mediocre pitching going, and two of the warmest weather games are in already hitter-friendly parks (CIN & NYY).
We’re still waiting on a confirmed Brewers starting pitcher, but for now, Bryse Wilson is a likely option. He’d likely only go 2-4 innings, so he is not on my DFS radar, but check back for confirmation later in case they end up promoting someone to start. (Update: Colin Rea is starting for the Brewers) Let’s get to some MLB DFS picks and other notes for today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can get a better idea if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- MIN/NYY has the best hitting weather today, as it’s going to be in the low 80s to high 70s all game, along with 10mph wind blowing out to left center.
- PHI/CIN will be in the 70s with no relevant wind, and PIT/STL will be in the 70s with a small 5mph breeze out to left. MIL/SD will be in the low 50s with 6-8mph wind blowing out.
- DET/TOR is the lone dome game, although the roof will be open today.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- PHI & CIN will both go righty heavy against lefty SPs, with Harrison/Sosa/Pache likely starting over Marsh/Cave/Clemens, and Newman/Fairchild/Casali likely starting over Vosler/Fraley/Benson. Steer should continue to hit second as he’s been doing against lefties. Nick Senzel is off the IL and hitting 6th today.
- Buxton is in the lineup after his nasty collision yesterday, and Carlos Correa is back in there too. Edouard Julien is hitting leadoff and at minimum price he’s a great value play on both sites.
- The Yankees will keep starting Franchy Cordero against righties as he’s homered in four of his last six games, and Volpe will go back to his 9-hole spot after starting at leadoff yesterday. LeMahieu is still out today and Torres will hit leadoff, and Willie Calhoun will start and hit 5th.
- DET, TOR, MIL, STL, and SD should have their standard lineups against righties, although Jesse Winker may still be out with his illness. PIT will go righty heavy against the lefty Montgomery, with Hayes likely at leadoff.
- My favorite stacks are STL and TOR, as both face mediocre righties at home and are sitting on team totals above 5 currently. NYY & SDP are my next favorite stacks, while CIN, MIN, and MIL are other teams I don’t mind taking shots on in GPPs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- There are three clear cash game SPs in play today, and all are at different price points. Nick Lodolo ($10,800) is the most expensive but offers one of the safest floors with his strikeout upside, and draws the same matchup with Philly as his last start in which he dominated with 12 strikeouts in 7 shutout innings. Jordan Montgomery ($9,400) is coming off a 9 strikeout shutout of MIL over 7 innings, and should find similar success against a Pirates offense that’s scored over two runs just once in their last four games. Lastly Chris Bassitt ($7,300) draws a great matchup with Detroit, and although he started the year badly, his last start was very strong against a tough LAA lineup, going for 37 FP. All three options have 100 pitch count upside and matchups they can dominate in, so it’s really going to depend on the bats you want in cash games, and which SP fits your salary remaining.
- Daulton Varsho ($3,200) dropped $100 and is standing out as a top p/$ bat of the slate. He should hit clean-up on the highest projected scoring offense of the slate, and is my favorite way to get TOR exposure today.
- I definitely want STL exposure in cash games, and if you can’t fit in Goldschmidt ($3,800) and/or Arenado ($3,700), I’d look at Nolan Gorman ($3,300), Alec Burleson ($3,000), or Brendon Donovan ($3,100) for cheap guys with the platoon advantage today. Tyler O’Neill ($2,400) dropped $600 in price overnight after hitting an HR yesterday, and even though he probably won’t hit higher than 7th, he’s still a fine extreme salary saver today.
- Steer ($3,000), Myers ($2,400), Fairchild ($2,100), and Stephenson ($2,600) are a great value stack with big HR upside today, and in the other hitters’ ballpark I can’t fault anyone for using Franchy Cordero ($3,100) as he’s still at a great price and is scorching hot right now.
- I’d consider Juan Soto ($3,600) a value still at that price, as most of the elite hitters are closer to or above $4k on FD by now, so take advantage of this price before it skyrockets soon. Grisham ($2,700), Machado ($3,200), and Cronenworth ($2,600) are all in play at great prices as well, and from MIL I’m loving the salaries of Yelich ($3,200) and Tellez ($2,700). Check out our Underdog Fantasy promo code for new signups, where I like taking higher on Soto’s 1.5 hits+runs+RBI’s today.
- I have to add Edouard Julien ($2,000) as a top p/$ 2B option hitting leadoff for the Twins today.
- There isn’t enough of a price gap between Bassitt ($8,200) and my other favorite SPs in Lodolo ($9,400) and Montgomery ($8,500), so unlike FD I’m considering the latter two must-plays at those salaries, especially Lodolo.
- Varsho ($4,100) remains my favorite way to get exposure to TOR in cash games, while Belt ($2,500) and Biggio ($2,400) are decent extreme salary savers.
- Alec Burleson ($3,200) and Nolan Gorman ($3,800) are really standing out to me for STL, and both will almost certainly make my main build at salaries that are just way too cheap.
- Franchy Cordero ($2,800) is also looking like a must-play at that price, and should be easy to fit in at either 1B or OF. Edouard Julien ($2,000) is a top p/$ 2B option hitting leadoff.
- Steer ($3,000), Fairchild ($2,300), and Myers ($2,700) remain top value bats from CIN (along with Senzel for $2k), and if you need a couple more value bats today, I’d consider Tellez ($3,200) or Mitchell ($3,100) from MIL.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!