MLB DFS Slate Preview: Thursday, April 20
Erik Wardenburg previews the Thursday, April 20th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Just a five-game main slate today starting at 6:35 PM EST, and like the last slate Kodai Senga pitched on, we’re left with a whole lot of mediocrity at SP after him.
Chicago will have some rain but likely play after a late start. We have one of the biggest pricing errors I can remember, as DraftKings didn’t get the announcement Fernando Tatis is back from suspension today and left him at minimum price. He’s an obvious MLB DFS pick for today, but there are plenty more optimal bats to consider, so let’s get to it!
UPDATE: Taillon is going on the IL and Javier Assad will start for the Cubs
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- LAD/CHC is our biggest weather concern today, as there are scattered showers and storms all day, but by game time or after a delay, they should be able to play fine. It’s extra important to monitor this game as we’re looking at 15-20mph winds blowing out to left center, and we know how wind affects Wrigley Field for hitters.
- CIN/PIT and COL/PHI are also looking at good hitting weather with temps in the 60s-70s, while NYM/SFG will be a bit cooler in the mid-50s with 10mph wind out to center. SD/ARI is the lone dome game.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- By far the biggest lineup news of the day is the return of Fernando Tatis for SD, as he should slot right into the leadoff spot moving Grisham towards the backend of the order. Soto is expected to hit 2nd with Machado and Bogaerts behind him.
- Mookie Betts is likely out another game on the paternity list, so look for Outman to hit leadoff again and Peralta to remain in the lineup. With Miguel Rojas on the IL and Chris Taylor dealing with an injury too, Luke Williams will likely play SS until Betts returns. Will Smith is also still out as he works to return from a concussion.
- Starling Marte left yesterday with neck soreness, so I’d expect him to get a day off today, and also in that game, Michael Conforto has a great chance of returning to the lineup for SF after pinch-hitting yesterday. He has extra motivation against his former Mets team today. Spencer Steer will return to CIN’s lineup after missing a few games and bat 3rd.
- With Coors Field out of play and a lot of mediocre pitching going today I’m expecting stack ownership to be pretty spread out today. With the wind blowing out in Wrigley, I would definitely have exposure to both LAD and CHC in cash games and stack both teams in GPPs. PHI is also looking like a great stack option as they currently have a 5.4 run total, are hitting at home in pretty warm weather, and face a pitcher in Feltner who’s allowed 10 ER over his last three starts. PIT is another stack to target today as they have almost a 5 run total, are hitting in the warmest conditions of the slate at home, and have a lot of hot bats in their lineup coming off an offensive explosion in their Coors Field series. Lastly, I like having exposure to an SD stack somewhere as this lineup just got even more upside with Tatis in it, and they’re facing a mediocre righty in Nelson.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Kodai Senga ($11,000) and Roansy Contreras ($7,300) are my top two SPs to consider for cash games. It’s a huge price difference between them, so depending on how much value we can find or how many expensive bats we want in our lineup, I will go with the SP that fits the hitter build I like most.
- Juan Soto ($3,500) remains way too cheap and is the first guy I’m locking into cash games. Manny Machado ($3,000) is also too cheap and makes for a great mini stack with Soto for cheap SD exposure in your main build. Check out our Underdog Fantasy promo offer for new signups, where I like taking higher 1.5 hits+runs+rbis for Soto today.
- I need some LAD and CHC exposure with the wind blowing out in Wrigley and two mediocre righty SPs on the mound. Freddie Freeman ($3,600) should be a $4k+ hitter and is my favorite p/$ play from LAD, while James Outman ($3,200) and JD Martinez ($3,200) are both excellent bats to stack with him for cheap. From the Cubs, I’m looking at Swanson ($3,200), Suzuki ($3,200), and Bellinger ($3,300), as all are a bit underpriced with huge upside.
- Trea Turner ($3,500) went down $100 after going for over 40 FP last game, and like Soto and Freeman he is just way too cheap and should be a $4k+ hitter with his HR and SB upside. Kyle Schwarber ($3,100) is also underpriced, and Stott ($2,900) is a great value play too to complete a huge upside mini PHI stack.
- More value bats to consider today include Ke’Bryan Hayes ($2,900), Carlos Santana ($2,900), Kris Bryant ($3,100), CJ Cron ($3,200), JT Realmuto ($2,900), Jake Cronenworth ($2,900), and Christian Walker ($2,700).
- The way Senga ($10,300) and Contreras ($6,400) are priced makes them a pretty obvious SP tandem in cash games. Wacha ($8,600) is pretty much the only other SP I’d consider, even in GPPs.
- Fernando Tatis ($2,000) is the minimum price and a free square in DK cash games today, but definitely make some GPP lineups without him, as he’ll still be exceptionally highly owned there.
- Cody Bellinger ($3,300) remains way too cheap and is my favorite p/$ OF play today, while Outman ($4,000), Martinez ($4,700), and Hoerner ($4,500) are my next favorite plays from the Wrigley game.
- Santana ($3,400) and Suwinski ($2,900) make for an excellent value stack from PIT, and with Wacha’s reverse splits, I don’t mind taking a shot on Walker ($3,200) and Gurriel ($3,500) for a cheap mini-stack from ARI.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!