MLB DFS Slate Preview: Thursday, August 3rd
Erik Wardenburg previews the Thursday, August 3rd slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Just six games on today’s main slate with the Cubs looking like the top stack at first glance at home against Weaver. We have some solid pitchers to choose from with Ohtani the clear headliner, but Keller is always in play and Urias is in a nice spot at home against Oakland.
Let’s check out today’s news and notes and some MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- MIN/STL is rated yellow/green as rain gets close to St. Louis tonight, but the heavy stuff should stay just southwest. There’s still a low chance of a delay if a stray shower lands over the park. It’s also the warmest game today with temps in the 80s and 75%-85% humidity.
- HOU/NYY is rated green/yellow as there may be a few drops a rain, but nothing that should stop play. Winds moving right to left at 10-15mph with temps in the mid 70s.
- CIN/CHC, SEA/LAA, and OAK/LAD will all be in the 70s with slight 5mph breezes. PIT/MIL is our lone done game.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Alvarez and Altuve got staggered off days the last couple games, but both should be in the lineup today along with all the Houston regulars.
- Rizzo is going on the IL with a concussion and Cabrera is back with the Yankees. Bauers is back at leadoff handling 1B, and Kiner-Falefa is at 3B with LeMahieu getting a breather.
- Newly acquired Alfonso Rivas is hitting leadoff for the Pirates today and should be the regular 1B against righties now.
- Buxton remains out of the Twins lineup with his hamstring tightness, so Polanco will DH and Julien will get a rare start against a lefty.
- Arenado, Contreras, and O’Neill are all sitting for the Cardinals, so Knizner will catch, Motter will play 3B, and Burleson gets a start at 1B. Jordan Walker has moved all the way up to third today. Gorman is now out as well with a foot contusion, so Fermin will handle 2B.
- Elly De La Cruz should be back in there after getting a breather yesterday, and I’m expecting Maile to catch today since Stephenson caught the last two games.
- Suzuki is sitting for the Cubs tonight, so Tauchman/Happ/Bellinger will man the outfield. Candelario is at 1B, Gomes is catching, and Madrigal will play 3B and hit ninth.
- Tony Kemp is dealing with a rib injury after crashing in to the outfield wall yesterday and is out of the A’s lineup. Jonah Bride is back with the team and will hit leadoff against the lefty.
- Against another lefty we should see a similar Dodgers lineup as yesterday, and it sounds like JD Martinez will need at least another game off as he works out a groin injury. Barnes is catching today with Smith at DH.
- With 36 runs over their last two games and another great matchup at home against Weaver, the Cubs are easily my top stack of the slate. They are going to be extremely popular though as their prices on both sites haven’t fully adjusted to their current offensive explosion, but it’s going to be hard to not use a full stack in cash games. The Dodgers are my next favorite stack with a current team total of 5.4 runs against Sears, who’s allowed 6 HR’s over his last three starts. MIN also has a solid team total around 4.8 runs and offer a bunch of strong value options with the platoon advantage against Liberatore, so I’d have some stack exposure to them in GPPs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Most cash game lineups will likely have Ohtani ($10,400) or Urias ($8,800), and depending on how many expensive bats you want, I’m fine with either tonight. The A’s have scored 4 total runs over their last three games, and Urias has about as extreme home/road splits as anyone this season with a home ERA of just 2.47 compared to a road ERA of 7.88. OAK has the lowest team total currently of just over 3 runs, so Urias at home is looking like the top p/$ SP if you can’t fit in Ohtani, who still has the highest ceiling at SP. Keller, Javier, and Taillon are other SPs I like for GPPs.
- The Cubs remain way too cheap, especially Dansby Swanson ($3,200) with four HR’s over his last three games, so he’s my priority at SS. Hoerner ($3,300) and Happ ($3,200) are my next favorite values, and I will do my best to fit in Bellinger ($4,000) for the full stack. Tauchman ($3,200) is another strong value option hitting leadoff, but he does come with pinch-hit risk. Morel ($4,100) and Candelario ($2,900) are solid GPP plays likely drawing much lower ownership than the first four Cubs mentioned here.
- Amed Rosario ($2,900) should hit clean-up again for LAD, and although he’s at the same position as Swanson, he makes for a solid UTIL option to fit in both. Taylor ($2,800) remains another great value target from LAD, while Smith ($3,600) and Betts ($4,400) are guys I’d include in full GPP stacks and both are strong cash game targets if you can fit them. Even without the platoon advantage Freeman ($4,300) remains as high an upside play as anyone, with 12+ FP in ten of his last fourteen games.
I like taking higher than 1.5 total bases for Betts on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- If you need a couple extreme salary savers to help fit in other bats, then I’d consider Solano ($2,400) and Farmer ($2,600) from MIN, as each should hit in the top four of the order with the platoon advantage in the best hitting weather of the slate. Correa ($3,000) and Polanco ($3,000) are both great value options as well, and I’d definitely have some full MIN stacks in GPPs.
- Some other value bats I like today include Jeremy Pena ($2,600), Alex Bregman ($3,200), Endy Rodriguez ($2,500), Jack Suwinski ($3,100), Joey Votto ($3,100), and TJ Friedl ($3,200).
- I’m still looking to use Ohtani ($11,000) and Urias ($9,800) as my cash game SPs, but if you want $3k+ extra to spend on bats, I’d consider going with Taillon ($6,200) over Urias. Woo ($7,500) and Schmidt ($7,200) are a couple super cheap guys I like taking shots on in GPPs, along with Houser ($5,200).
- Ian Happ ($3,300) is my favorite p/$ bat on DK tonight, and this could be our last chance to play him for under $3.5k for a long time once his price adjusts to his current production. Tauchman ($3,400) should also be a cash game staple for most people if you are willing to risk him not getting 4+ at-bats. Swanson ($4,600), Hoerner ($4,800), and Bellinger ($5,200) are pricier but still not expensive enough to not call them each top cash game targets. Morel ($5,000) and Candelario ($4,200) are both in play and remain great GPP plays.
- Rosario ($3,900) and Taylor ($3,300) remain the best value bats from LAD, while Betts ($6,200) and Smith ($5,600) are my top spend-up targets. Correa ($4,700) and Polanco ($4,400) remain solid mid-range options from MIN, while Solano ($2,700) and Farmer ($2,800) are two of the best p/$ value options of the slate, along with Jeffers ($2,500) at C. A contrarian cheap stack I don’t mind taking a shot on in a GPP is Hayes ($3,500), McCutchen ($3,700), Suwinski ($3,600), Davis ($2,900), and Rodriguez ($2,500) from PIT.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!