MLB DFS Slate Preview: Thursday, July 6
Erik Wardenburg previews the Thursday, July 6th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Six games on today’s main slate, with Tanner Bibee in a great spot at home against KC, Nathan Eovaldi looking for some revenge in Boston, and Julio Urias trying to get back on track after getting blown up in his first start off the IL last time out.
Let’s check out today’s news and notes and get to some MLB DFS picks for today!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- KCR/CLE is our only rain concern today, which is pretty unfortunate considering Bibee is my favorite SP of the slate. As of now, I’m still riding with Bibee in cash games, as current forecasts have a batch of storms clearing early after a potential late start. Another batch of storms could come in-game, but it could also miss the park completely. I think the upside of Bibee is too high, and I’m willing to risk him if the current forecasts hold. As always with orange/yellow ratings, check for Roth’s updates closer to lock. Temps in the 70s here.
- BAL/NYY and TEX/BOS will be in the low 80s to high 70s. PIT/LAD will be in the mid 60s, with 5-9 mph wind blowing out. Dome games are NYM/ARI and SEA/HOU.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Josh Naylor is back in the lineup for Cleveland at cleanup.
- Aaron Hicks was scratched from the lineup so Cowser is up to sixth in the order and Urias joins the lineup.
- Stanton is off the for the Yankees, and Volpe is up to the leadoff spot today.
- Yu Chang remains out but is likely back tomorrow. Duran and Arroyo are off today, so Verdugo will leadoff and Hernandez will handle 2B.
- Jose Altuve is likely out at least through the All-Star break with his oblique discomfort, so Mauricio Dubon should be the everyday leadoff hitter for now.
- Ketel Marte is back in the lineup for Arizona after sitting the last two games. McCarthy gets a breather with Fletcher taking his spot.
- Will Smith is getting a breather for LAD so Barnes will catch and everyone else moves up a spot in the order.
- Currently four of the twelve teams have projected totals above 5 runs, but against the low-strikeout Lyles, Cleveland is my top stack today, especially with how underpriced they are on both sites. LAD is my second favorite stack, followed by TEX and ARI.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Tanner Bibee ($9,200) is who I’m using in cash games, as the only negative for him today is potential weather issues. He has gone for 46 and 50 FD points his last two starts and only increased $700 in price. He has 6+ strikeouts in three straight starts and gets a KC team that just struck out 12 times in a CGSO yesterday by Pablo Lopez. Kirby and Eovaldi are worth having exposure to in GPPs, along with Bradish, Urias, and Nelson.
- I will be using four Guardians in cash games, as they’re my top stack of the slate, and only Jose Ramirez ($3,800) is above $3.3k in their lineup. Andres Gimenez ($2,700) is one of my favorite values of the slate, while Naylor ($3,300), Kwan ($2,800), Rosario ($2,900), and Bell ($2,600) are all fantastic values to help fit in Ramirez.
I like taking higher than 1.5 total bases for Ramirez on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- With Bibee and a value CLE stack, it should be pretty easy to fit in a couple top Dodgers bats, with Betts ($4,400) and Freeman ($4,200) the priorities. Guys like Muncy ($3,700), Martinez ($3,800), Peralta ($2,600), and Heyward ($2,500) are all in play depending on your salary and positional availability.
- Nate Lowe ($3,000) is a solid value from TEX if you want cheap exposure to their offense today, and Colton Cowser ($2,000) went down $500 overnight to minimum price, making him an excellent extreme salary saver option from BAL. Starling Marte ($2,900) is another cheap bat I like today, and Julio Rodriguez ($3,600) is underpriced if you want some SEA exposure.
- Tanner Bibee ($8,700) is still the clear SP1 in cash games, as his price only went up $300 after going for 31.8 DK points last start and 25.3 DK points the start before that. Bibee has scored over 6 FPPG more at home this year and draws one of the best matchups in baseball against KC. I’m sure Kirby, Eovaldi, and even Urias will see plenty of cash game exposure, but I’m going with Kyle Bradish ($7,200) for SP2. He’s over $2k cheaper than all of those options and has gone for 20+ DK points in four of his last five starts. Ryne Nelson ($6,000) is also worth mentioning as a great value GPP play.
- I’m loading up on Cleveland bats in cash games, as everyone in their projected lineup can be considered a value outside of Jose Ramirez ($6,000). Josh Naylor ($4,200), Andres Gimenez ($4,000), Steven Kwan ($4,100), Amed Rosario ($3,800), Josh Bell ($2,800), and Will Brennan ($2,700) are all in play for value and I will have five CLE bats in my main build.
- Colton Cowser ($2,000) remains at minimum price and is a top value of the slate, and I like Ryan O’Hearn ($3,600) if you want more cheap BAL exposure. Even though they’re facing Kirby, I still think Diaz ($3,700), Dubon ($3,400), and Abreu ($3,300) are in play for cash game value for Houston if you need a one-off bat to fill a position.
- From the final two games, we have some solid value bats as well in Starling Marte ($3,900), Jeff McNeil ($3,700), Francisco Alvarez ($3,600), Tommy Pham ($3,400), Carlos Santana ($3,200), Jason Heyward ($3,000), David Peralta ($3,400), Connor Joe ($2,800), Henry Davis ($2,700), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,400), and Nick Gonzales ($2,600).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!