MLB DFS Slate Preview: Thursday, June 15
Erik Wardenburg previews the Thursday, June 15th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Seven games on today’s main slate with just one rain game to monitor. Ohtani vs. Eovaldi is the must-watch matchup of the day, and there are a good amount of top SPs to choose from outside of those two. The Braves lead the way with a 5.6 run total currently, so hopefully the rain allows them to play today.
Let’s check out today’s news, notes, and some MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- COL/ATL is currently rated yellow, as slow moving storms could cause a late start. It’s too early to know just how bad the storms will be and for how long they’ll stay over the stadium. Roth thinks a late start and play is still the most likely outcome, but just be prepared for other options if it does get an early PPD.
- PIT/CHC will have fantastic pitching weather, with temps in the 50s and 17mph wind blowing in.
- CLE/SDP and CHW/LAD will both be in the 60s, while DET/MIN will be in the 70s with 10mph wind in from left.
- Dome games today are LAA/TEX & WSH/HOU.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Max Muncy has a grade 2 hamstring strain and will be out until at least Saturday at the earliest. Taylor should continue to play 3B in his absence, while Peralta should maintain his 4th or 5th spot in the order. JD Martinez is getting a breather today so Heyward will DH and hit cleanup.
- Eloy Jimenez returned from his leg injury yesterday, so look for him to DH for a while. Yoan Moncada is dealing with a back injury and going on the IL, so Burger should get most of the 3B time now. Benintendi is getting a day off so Sheets will hit second and Frazier will start in LF.
- Cody Bellinger is back for the Cubs, while Mervis has been sent back to AAA for him.
- Nelson Cruz came off the IL yesterday and even hit a pinch-hit HR, so he’s back in there today at DH. Gary Sanchez is getting a day off so Nola will catch, and Dixon is getting the start over Cronenworth.
- Zach Neto is going on the IL with an oblique strain, so Rengifo and just promoted Velazquez will get most of the playing time at SS. Drury is taking his 1-game suspension today and is out, and Moniak is getting a start over Renfroe along with Wallach over Thaiss. Texas is is going with as many lefties as they can as Jung, Garver, and Duran are all sitting.
- Ozuna was able to return from his wrist contusion for game 2 of ATL’s doubleheader yesterday, and against a lefty today, he’ll be back in there. Pillar will start over Rosario at LF, and Albies is up to second in the order with Olson down to fifth.
- Jorge Alfaro has been called up by the Rockies and is DH-ing today hitting sixth. Grichuk, Moustakas, and Castro are all out of the lineup.
- Byron Buxton is off the IL and will be in there at DH for MIN today hitting cleanup.
- Jeremy Pena is back in the Houston lineup after missing three games, and McCormick is hitting leadoff today with Dubon getting a day off. Meneses is getting a breather for Washington so Garrett will get a rare start against a righty.
- Kwan is out of the lineup for CLE, so Gimenez will move to leadoff and David Fry will get a spot start.
- ATL is the clear top stack today assuming their game can play, sitting at a 5.6 team total at home against Freeland. The Padres are my next favorite stack, as they have a lot of affordable, high-upside bats that will allow you to fit in Tatis. HOU, CHW, and MIN round out my top five stacks today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Michael Grove ($6,100) is coming in as a top p/$ SP, but with plenty of other options with 50+ FP upside, Grove is just a GPP flier for me today. Gray and Ohtani have the highest projected ceilings, so I can’t fault anyone for using either in cash games, but right now I’m leaning towards Stroman ($10,500) as SP1. With almost 20mph wind blowing in at Wrigley along with 50 degree temps, it’s going to be hard for the Pirates to put up runs today, and Vegas agrees as they have just a 2.87 run total currently. Stroman has allowed 2 or less ER in eight of his last nine starts, and even though he may not have the strikeout upside as some of the other expensive SPs today, I think the pitching conditions he’ll be in gives him one of the highest floors for cash games.
- I’m going to do everything possible to jam in Tatis ($4,500) and Acuna ($4,600) in cash games, as both are scorching hot at the plate and their SB upside just gives them higher ceilings than any other hitters on the slate. Riley ($3,000) and Albies ($3,200) are other excellent values from ATL, while Machado ($2,900), Bogaerts ($3,000), Kim ($2,800), and Cruz ($2,500) are all in play for value from SD depending on your positional needs.
I like taking higher than 1.5 total bases for Tatis on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- McCormick ($2,800), Bregman ($3,100), Tucker ($3,400), and Abreu ($2,600) are all in play for value from Houston and make for a great cheap GPP stack. If you need more extreme value to complete your favorite lineup, I’d look to Minnesota, as guys like Solano ($2,400), Farmer ($2,500), Taylor ($2,500), and Jeffers ($2,300) are dirt cheap with the platoon advantage.
- Grove ($5,200) and Smith-Shawver ($5,500) are the top p/$ projected SPs, and if I really need the salary savings, I’d consider Smith-Shawver for cash games but not Grove. Stroman ($8,700) is my clear SP1 as the fifth most expensive SP, while Gray ($9,300) also comes at a nice discount to Eovaldi/Ohtani/Javier and will likely be my SP2 in cash games.
- Minnesota bats are coming in as excellent values on DK, and using a few of them in your main build will make it very easy to fit in Acuna ($6,600) and Tatis ($6,000). Donovan Solano ($2,000) is minimum price and hitting leadoff today, so he’d be my first extreme value target. Kyle Farmer ($2,500) will hit fifth today, making him a very strong value target at either 2B or SS.
- If you have the salary, I’d try getting in at least one of Albies ($4,800) and Riley ($5,300) in cash games to stack with Acuna. Ozuna ($3,600) is a decent value option as well. Nelson Cruz ($2,400) is a fantastic value option at 1B if you want a bit more upside than Solano there, and Bogaerts ($4,700) is an excellent play at SS if you don’t go with Correa ($4,000) or Farmer ($2,500). Jose Abreu ($3,100) is also in play for value at 1B, and he’s easily one of the best ways to get exposure to Houston for cheap today, with McCormick ($3,000) being the other.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!