MLB DFS Slate Preview: Thursday, June 22
Erik Wardenburg previews the Thursday, June 22nd slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Just five games on today’s main slate that kicks off at 1:05PM EST. After ATL/PHI was postponed yesterday, the Braves decided to skip Smith-Shawver’s start and stick with Bryce Elder today, while the Phillies moved Aaron Nola to today. Boston is going with an opener before Brandon Walter likely gets some bulk innings, although it’s going to be scorching hot in Minnesota again, so the Twins bats are high on my cash game radar.
Grab some coffee, get those lineups pages up and ready, and let’s start building with some news, notes, and MLB DFS picks for today.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- ATL/PHI and ARI/WSH have low chances of some sprinkles, but both games should play fine, with Washington having a slight delay possibility. Temps in the mid 60s and 10mph wind blowing in for both.
- BOS/MIN is the best hitting weather, with temps in the high 80s and a slight breeze blowing right to left. OAK/CLE sill be in the low 70s, and SDP/SFG will be in the high 50s with 11mph wind out to left.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Before ATL got postponed, we saw their lineup with Marcell Ozuna up to the cleanup spot and d’Arnaud down to sixth, so we should see that lineup for today.
- Victor Robles went on the IL and Derek Hill took his spot, so he should get most of the CF starts. Joey Meneses and Dom Smith are getting days off, so Chavis will play 1B and Ruiz will DH with Adams at C.
- OAK and CLE should both get in as many righties as they can against lefty SPs, along with SD and SF. Bogaerts is getting a day off, so Kim will play SS and hit leadoff.
- Reese McGuire is heading to the IL with an oblique injury, so Wong should handle most of the catcher starts for now. Verdugo is going on the bereavement list, so Duran should handle the leadoff spot until he returns.
- Facing a righty opener and likely lefty bulk pitcher, the Twins could mix and match their lineup with varying handedness, although most of the usuals against righties will likely remain at the top of the order.
- Arizona is my top stack today, as their opponent Jake Irvin has four or less strikeouts in each of his last four starts, along with 4+ ER in four of his last six starts. In 90 degree temps, the Twins are my next top stack, and my cash game lineup will likely consist of mostly MIN and ARI players. WSH, CLE, and SDP round out my top five stacks for today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Blake Snell ($10,800) has 12 strikeouts in each of his last two starts, and those were in Coors Field and against Tampa Bay. He also has 1 or less ER in each of his last five starts, so in a pitchers’ park against SF, Snell is the clear SP1 and top cash game option today. Logan Allen ($8,400) will likely draw some ownership at home against Oakland, and I’d make sure to have GPP exposure to him. Meanwhile, Nola ($9,300), Ryan ($10,500), Sears ($8,500), and Wood ($7,100) are all worth having GPP exposure to as well.
- Corbin Carroll ($4,200) is a cash game priority today, and for value on Arizona I’m loving Perdomo ($2,800) and Thomas ($2,400). Ketel Marte ($3,900) is always a great play in good matchups like today, while Walker ($3,600) and Gurriel ($3,100) are fine targets if you need to fill another position.
I like taking higher than .5 hits for Perdomo on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Max Kepler ($2,400) is my top p/$ play from Minnesota, as he’s a streaky hitter and has HR’s in b2b games. Julien ($2,800) is a great value option at 2B along with Kirilloff ($2,600) at 1B. It’s going to be hard to not go with a full MIN stack in cash games as Correa ($2,900) and Buxton ($3,000) remain extremely cheap with huge upside today.
- Washington has some solid value options in Stone Garrett ($2,200) and Michael Chavis ($2,000), as both have big power with the platoon advantage today at excellent prices. Turner ($3,200) and Realmuto ($3,200) are my favorite p/$ targets from Philly, while Rosario ($2,900), Naylor ($3,200), and Bell ($2,400) are in consideration for value from CLE. Machado ($2,900), Bogaerts ($3,000), and Sanchez ($2,800) are a decent value stack from SD with the platoon advantage.
- Snell ($10,100) remains the top cash game SP, and to pair with him I think Logan Allen ($7,900) makes the most sense as he’s cheap, at home in a solid matchup with OAK. I think Ryan, Nola, and Elder are all a bit too expensive given their matchups. Sears ($6,800) and Wood ($6,600) are two of my favorite GPP plays at excellent prices.
- Carroll ($6,000) and Marte ($5,100) are pricey but I’d try getting at least one of them in your main build. Perdomo ($4,000) remains a great value at either 2B or SS, and for extreme value I don’t mind using Rivera ($2,900) or Thomas ($2,300).
- Max Kepler ($2,900) remains a top p/$ value, and I love stacking him with Julien ($3,300) and Kirilloff ($3,200) for a high upside cheap stack. Chavis ($2,100) and Garrett ($2,600) remain strong value options from Washington.
- Gary Sanchez ($3,900) is my favorite cash game catcher for the price, and if you need some more one-off values I’d consider Rosario ($3,600), Naylor ($3,900), Bell ($2,800), or Arias ($2,100) from CLE.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!