MLB DFS Slate Preview: Thursday, June 29
Erik Wardenburg previews the Thursday, June 29th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Only five games on today’s main slate, but we still have Coors Field and Max Scherzer available as top targets. We also have one of the hottest games of the year, with HOU/STL looking at temps in the high 90s at first pitch. Wrigley has pretty solid hitting weather too, with 80% humidity and a slight breeze blowing out.
Let’s get to today’s MLB DFS picks along with some news and notes!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- LAD/COL shows some rain in the forecast and is currently rated yellow, but Roth doesn’t think there will be any major issues outside of a “chance for a delay”. Temps in the high 60s, with a 10mph cross breeze.
- PHI/CHC could see a late-inning delay if storms redevelop over the park, but I’d still feel comfortable using pitchers here. Temps in the 70s with 5mph wind blowing out.
- HOU/STL will be scalding with temps as high as 98 degrees at first pitch, so a big bump to the bats here. The 8mph breeze blowing in isn’t enough to discourage targeting hitters or making me want any SPs here.
- MIL/NYM has solid hitting weather with temps in the low 80s and a slight breeze blowing out. SF/TOR is the lone dome game today.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Michael Conforto left early yesterday with hamstring tightness and is out today. Austin Slater pinch-hit for him yesterday and will start in RF for him tonight.
- Kiermaier has sat the last two games with back spasms and remains out today. Alejandro Kirk is off the IL and will catch today with Jansen getting a breather.
- Brice Turang is back with the team and Luis Urias was optioned. Turang should get most of the starts at 2B now against righties with Adames at SS. Contreras and Miller are getting days off.
- Gurriel was hurt in pre-game warmups and Cooper is getting a day off, so Arraez will play 1B and Berti will play 2B.
- Jared Young is back in the lineup at 1B and Morel is DH-ing, as Suzuki remains out of the lineup for the Cubs.
- If LAD continues to start Peralta/Heyward/Outman against righties, then either Vargas or Rojas will have to sit, as Betts would be starting at 2B or SS. Will Smith is finally getting a day off so Barnes will catch. Doyle is getting a day off for COL, so both Grichuk and Montero will start with Cron at DH.
- LAD remains the top stack with a projected run total just below seven. The Mets are my next favorite stack against the low strikeout righty Houser in solid hitting weather. I like Philly as a stack against Hendricks with a slight breeze blowing out in Wrigley and warm temps. COL and TOR round out my top five stacks, while HOU and STL are worth having stack exposure to just for the 90+ degree heat.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Max Scherzer ($9,700) is our top p/$ projected SP, with a projected ceiling over 15 FP higher than the next guy in Bassitt. The only downside to Scherzer today is his likely massive ownership, but there’s too much upside and safety to fade him in cash games. Bassitt ($8,900) and Walker ($9,500) are worth having GPP exposure to, along with Wainwright ($6,300), simply based on his super low price letting you do a full LAD stack in GPPs.
- David Peralta ($2,800) is my favorite way to get LAD exposure for cheap in cash games, and I will pick and choose between the other high-priced LAD bats based on positions and salary available, as I love all of them. Tovar ($2,900) is my favorite play from COL, followed by Cron ($3,200) and McMahon ($3,500).
- Nimmo ($3,100) and Lindor ($3,400) remain at excellent prices, and I will likely have both in my main build as I definitely want some Mets exposure. Jared Young ($2,000) is worth considering at 1B or UTIL if his minimum price helps you fit in all the top bats you want.
- Altuve ($3,200), Bregman ($3,100), Tucker ($3,400), and Abreu ($2,700) are a great value stack that I’d make sure to have in GPPs somewhere, and I’ll likely have 1-2 of them in cash games. From STL, I love the price of Donovan ($2,600) at leadoff.
I like taking higher than two 8.5 fantasy points for Tucker on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Scherzer ($11,000) remains a cash game lock, and for SP2 I’m leaning towards Bassitt ($9,600) or Walker ($8,800). The Giants lineup scares me less than the Cubs, especially with the solid hitting conditions in Wrigley today, so if I can afford Bassitt I’ll likely go with him. Hendricks ($7,100), Sheehan ($7,400), and Wainwright ($6,500) are decent value SPs to use in GPPs.
- Same story with the Dodgers, as Peralta ($3,500) is my favorite value (along with Heyward for $3.1k), and the expensive bats are all in play depending on where and how many you can fit. Tovar ($3,600) remains a fantastic value from COL, while Jones ($4,300) is a better value compared to FD. Both McMahon ($4,600) and Cron ($4,600) are reasonably priced, as well.
- Mike Tauchman ($2,500) and Jared Young ($2,200) are strong extreme value plays from the Cubs that will help you stack more Dodgers. Donovan ($3,400), Nootbaar ($3,900), and Walker ($3,100) are values to consider from STL. From HOU, I’m looking at Abreu ($3,200) and Diaz ($3,200) for value.
- Brandon Nimmo ($4,000) is one of my favorite plays for the price along with Lindor ($4,500) and Alonso ($4,900). Vogelbach ($2,400) and Belt ($2,900) are decent punts at 1B if you don’t go with Donovan or Young or someone more expensive.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!