MLB DFS Slate Preview: Thursday, May 25
Erik Wardenburg previews the Thursday, May 25th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We have differing main slates today, as FanDuel is including the CHW/DET game for a 6-game main slate starting at 6:40 PM EST, while DraftKings will start at 7:05 PM EST with a 5-game main slate.
Kyle Hendricks will make his 2023 debut for the Cubs in great pitching weather, and Julio Teheran is also set to make his 2023 debut now with the Brewers. Dylan Dodd is getting a spot start for the Braves, SF is going with a bullpen game today starting with Scott Alexander, and Logan Gilbert is today’s top target in a home matchup with Oakland.
Plenty of other MLB DFS picks to talk about along with today’s news and notes, so let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- CHW/DET will be in the high 50s with 10mph wind blowing out to right. BAL/NYY will be similar with 5-10mph wind blowing left to right with temps in the low 60s.
- PHI/ATL is the best hitting weather of the slate, with temps in the 70s and humidity between 30 and 50%. NYM/CHC is the best pitching weather of the slate, with temps in the low 50s and 10-15mph wind blowing in from left.
- OAK/SEA & SFG/MIL are today’s dome games.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Luis Robert said he’s playing today after sitting last game with a tight hip, and I’d expect Romy Gonzalez to remain a starter the way he’s hitting, even if Alberto is healthy.
- Owen Miller hit cleanup yesterday against a righty as he’s been on fire at the plate, so expect to see him high in the Brewer’s batting order regardless of the opposing SP. Against a lefty opener today, he will likely hit leadoff.
- Ty France has a chance to return today, while Pollock felt something in his leg on a steal attempt so he could sit.
- Cedric Mullens is getting a day off, so Adam Frazier will hit leadoff and McKenna will join the lineup hitting 8th. DJ LeMahieu is sitting for the Yankees, so everyone moves up a spot with Bader at cleanup now.
- SF, NYY, PHI, and SEA are my top stacks today. On FD, I would also get some CHW stacks in GPPs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- We have the rare combo of the most expensive SP also being the highest p/$ projected pitcher of the slate, as Logan Gilbert ($10,600) is in a smash spot against the A’s just like all the Mariners pitchers have been this series. Giolito ($10,000) and Nola ($9,700) are fine plays as well and worth having exposure to in GPPs, but I will absolutely be using Gilbert in my main build. Carrasco ($7,500) and Hendricks ($7,200) are a great GPP hedge combo facing each other in good pitching conditions at fantastic salaries.
- Trea Turner ($2,800) has been horrid at the plate lately, with at least one strikeout in all but one of his last 21 games, along with just 2 extra-base hits in his last 31 ABs. The good news is that he’s starting to come out of his slump a bit, as he hit a big HR yesterday, and a couple games before that, he went for 15.5 FP getting a hit, a walk, and an SB that game. His salary remains way too cheap for someone of his caliber, and with the platoon advantage against a very mediocre lefty today, he is my top SS target for cash games. I like taking higher than .5 singles for Turner on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus offer.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Teoscar Hernandez ($2,800) is my top p/$ OF target today, as he gets to face another lefty. Hernandez is going to come with strikeouts, but when he makes good contact, it’s usually for a big fly. His opponent Sears already has a game with 3 HRs allowed this season.
- Owen Miller ($2,800) has been raking lately with three HRs in his last five games, and he’s averaged almost 15 FPPG over his last 12 games. He’s extremely versatile in DFS as you can use him at 2B, 3B, or OF. Likely hitting leadoff today, he is one of my favorite value plays of the slate.
- Michael Conforto ($3,100) is another OF bat I’m loving today, as he faces Teheran and his .365 average allowed to lefties in AAA this season. Conforto should hit clean-up, comes at a great price with the platoon advantage, and has as much multi-HR upside as anyone today.
- Logan Gilbert ($9,900) remains the clear top target for cash games, and I will likely pair him with Nola ($9,500) for maximum upside. If I absolutely need the salary for bats, then I may drop Nola down to Carrasco ($7,000) and hope the weather in Wrigley can get him a quality start.
- The Giants offer some fantastic value today, starting with Michael Conforto ($3,100), who is somehow the same price as FD even though he should be at least $4k on DK the way he’s been hitting this year. LaMonte Wade ($3,000) and Mitch Haniger ($2,700) are also both way too cheap, and I may end up with four Giants in my cash game lineup as Davis ($3,700) and Yastrzemski ($3,800) come at fantastic prices, too. Even Patrick Bailey ($2,100) is in play at catcher for almost the minimum price
- Owen Miller ($2,700) remains one of my favorite p/$ plays at the 2B/3B positions, and if I don’t use Bailey at C, I will likely go with Caratini ($2,800) for more MIL exposure.
- Teoscar Hernandez ($3,900) remains my top p/$ play from Seattle, while Jose Caballero ($2,700) is still a great value option at 2B/SS.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!