MLB DFS Slate Preview: Thursday, May 4
Erik Wardenburg previews the Thursday, May 4th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Happy Star Wars Day! It’s an early nine-game main slate today starting at 1:05PM EST, that will see the return of Verlander and Taillon from the IL. There are a couple of spotty rain games including Coors Field with a YELLOW rating, although the Brewers can’t see to be able to score this series anyways with three total runs the first two games.
Grab some coffee, put on some Star Wars music, and let’s get to the slate’s news, notes, and MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- MIL/COL is showing 80%+ precipitation at first pitch and long in to the night, but that rain must be light as it has no ORANGE or RED in its current rating. Check the weather page closer to lock for a better update on this game, as once again we have a game total of 12 runs and the Brewers are going to score some runs here eventually.
- CHC/WSH and NYM/DET will be in the 50s, TOR/BOS will be in the 40s with some light rain but not enough to cause any concern, and SEA/OAK will be in the low 60s with some early light rain that could cause a delay.
- MIN/CHW will be in the mid 60s, BAL/KC & LAA/STL will be in the 70s with slight breezes blowing out to left, and today’s dome games are PIT/TB & ATL/MIA.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are more likely to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- With Yan Gomes going on the 7-day concussion IL and the Cubs facing a lefty, Miguel Amaya will get his first career start at catcher.
- Miguel Cabrera was sick yesterday and sat both games of the doubleheader, and remains out today for Detroit.
- The Angels are sitting Trout and Drury today, while Neto will start after hurting his finger yesterday. Lamb will get the start at 1B and hit 5th while Ward remains lower in the order hitting 6th.
- Jake Burger also left early yesterday, and will go on the IL with an oblique injury. Hanser Alberto recently came off the IL and will take his starting spot at 3B. Tim Anderson and Yasmani Grandal are getting off days, so Sosa and Zavala will join the starting lineup.
- The Rockies are sitting Diaz, Grichuk, and McMahon, going with Serven, Doyle, and Moustakas instead.
- Michael Harris jammed his knee yesterday and will get today off. Eddie Rosario will start for him and hit 8th.
- Garcia and Cooper are on the IL for Miami, so newly promoted Peyton Burdick should get consistent starts against lefties like today, and Gurriel will get most of the 1B starts.
- The Brewers continue to look like a great stack on paper and disappointing with just three runs scored in two games at Coors so far. I completely understand if you’re over them and want to look elsewhere, especially as this game has some potential rain issues, but I would still make sure to cover them in GPPs if you avoid them in cash games. Personally, I will be back on them in my main build, especially with the likelihood of reduced ownership. COL is again my second favorite stack against Miley, and their bats are still underpriced on FD. The Cubs are another frustrating team with two total runs in their last two games, but they are my third favorite stack today with a 5.4 run total against Corbin. BAL and SEA round out my top five stacks of the slate.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- George Kirby ($10,000) went up $1k from his last start, but for good reason after going 8 IP with 7 strikeouts and 1 ER vs. Philly. Today’s matchup with OAK is by far his best of the season thus far, and his upside is just too high to fade for me in cash games. I also really like Grayson Rodriguez ($9,400) and Lucas Giolito ($8,300) if you need the salary savings. Meanwhile, Pablo Lopez ($10,700), Jesus Luzardo ($9,200), and Vince Velasquez ($8,900) are some of my favorite GPP plays.
- Gunnar Henderson ($2,500) sat out yesterday, but assuming he’s back in there today and hitting 5th, he is the first bat I’m locking in to cash games. He’s just way too cheap on one of my favorite offenses of the slate. Anthony Santander ($2,900) is another great value option from BAL, while Rutschman ($3,300) also remains a great price.
- I definitely want some Cubs exposure in my main build, and the cheap trio of Swanson ($3,100), Happ ($3,000), and Suzuki ($2,800) make for a fantastic mini-stack with massive upside. Trey Mancini ($2,800) can also be included if you want the full stack, or Nico Hoerner ($3,700) if you have the extra salary. Check out our Underdog Fantasy bonus code for new signups, where I like taking higher 1.5 total bases for Hoerner today.
- Seattle is in a nice spot against the low strikeout Rucinski, starting with Eugenio Suarez ($2,600) as my favorite p/$ target for them coming off a big game yesterday. Rodriguez ($3,600) and Kelenic ($3,400) remain high upside bats at reasonable prices, whiel Raleigh ($3,100), France ($2,900) and Hernandez ($2,800) are super cheap and fine options to complete a full stack.
- If Coors Field weather looks clear closer to lock, then I will be looking to get some exposure in my main build. Yelich ($3,600), Adames ($3,600), and Tellez ($3,700) remain pricey but I’d try to fit in at least one of them. Bryant ($3,500), Cron ($3,500), Blackmon ($3,200), and Profar ($3,000) are where I’ll be looking from COL depending on salary and positional needs.
- George Kirby ($8,800) is an absolute steal at this price on DK, and will likely be the highest-owned SP of the slate, but for good reason. Right now, I’m leaning towards Giolito ($7,400) as my cash game SP2, although I’m still considering spending up a bit more to Grayson Rodriguez ($8,300) who offers a little more strikeout upside.
- Trey Mancini ($2,500) is standing out as a top value bat at the 1B position. He’s hitting .364 in his career against Miley and has been solid at the plate lately with a .389 average over his last six games. I still like the prices for Swanson ($4,800) and Suzuki ($4,700) the most from CHC, and will try to get at least one of them to pair with Mancini in my main build.
- Gunnar Henderson ($3,700) remains at a fantastic price and will most likely be in my cash game lineup at either 3B or SS. Henderson is hitting 8th today which makes me like him a bit less now, but he’s still super cheap. For Seattle I like the trio of Raleigh ($4,100), Suarez ($3,600), and Hernandez ($3,900), although Trammell ($2,500) is a strong pivot from Hernandez at much less salary.
- More cheap bats I’m considering for cash games include Nolan Gorman ($4,300), Anthony Santander ($4,300), Jesse Winker ($3,700), Jurickson Profar ($3,600), Alan Trejo ($3,200), Brice Turang ($2,800), and Nick Fortes ($2,600).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!