MLB DFS Slate Preview: Tuesday, April 11
Erik Wardenburg previews the Tuesday, April 11th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Big ten-game slate today with beautiful weather, great pitching options, and plenty of top bats to choose from, especially with Coors Field still in play. The Cardinals disappointed yesterday, scoring just four runs. I’d still expect them to be high-owned today with a team total near 6.7 currently, while a few other offenses are sitting at totals above five.
Kyle Wright is set to return from his brief IL stint and start for Atlanta, but I’ll look elsewhere for pitching today as there are some excellent matchups for top aces today, including deGrom vs. KC, Ohtani vs. WSH, Manoah vs. DET, and May vs. SFG. Let’s dive into the slate and check out some of my favorite MLB DFS picks for today!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can get a better idea if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- LAD/SF will have the most wind of around 15mph out to center, but Oracle Park is the least wind sensitive in baseball, so it’s still a pitchers’ park.
- Wrigley is the most wind-sensitive park in baseball and will see 10mph winds out to center with temps in the 70s, so a nice bump for hitters there today.
- CHW/MIN is the warmest game with temps in the low 80s to mid-70s, and will have a crosswind of around 14mph. STL/COL will be similar, with temps in the mid-70s and 6-10mph wind moving left to right.
- SDP/NYM and CIN/ATL will both be in the 60s, but the Mets will see 14mph winds blowing out while ATL will have just 3-5mph wind blowing in from left. WSH/LAA will be in the low 60s with 5mph wind out to left.
- DET/TOR, MIL/ARI & KC/TEX are the dome games.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Starling Marte is good to go after getting a game off for neck soreness, and Alvarez will catch Peterson today.
- Tim Anderson is heading to the IL with a knee sprain, so Benintendi will move to the leadoff spot. Moncada is also still out so Burger will start at 3B today, while Gonzalez will start at 2B with Andrus moving to SS.
- The Twins are pretty banged up now with Kepler on IL, Gallo dealing with side soreness, and Correa dealing with back soreness. Gallo & Correa remain out today, Wallner and Farmer will continue to start for them.
- Mitch Garver went on the IL yesterday so Jonah Heim will catch regularly, with Sandy Leon getting some starts here and there for TEX.
- STL will stick with Donovan at leadoff even against a lefty, while Edman will hit 2nd and Carlson is getting a day off with a neck issue. COL is giving Blackmon a day off, and Montero is out of the lineup too, so Moustakas and Castro will be in there at DH and 3B.
- Luis Garcia could return for the Nationals as he was close yesterday, and we’ll see if Anthony Rendon is in there for the Angels after getting late-scratched with shoulder soreness yesterday.
- Walker is getting a breather for Arizona, so Pavin Smith will start at 1B and Longoria will DH and hit clean up.
- My top five stacks in order of upside today are STL, TOR, ATL, TEX, and LAA. COL is always fine to stack in a GPP in Coors, but their offense just isn’t as potent as those other five, and Mikolas is a better SP than most of the guys those other teams are facing.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, be sure to read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Jacob deGrom ($10,600) is my SP1 today, as he’s at home facing a KC offense that’s scored just three runs once in their last seven games and just struck out 13 times against Texas pitching yesterday. deGrom’s price only went up $700 after putting up 58 FP the previous start, and he is just too cheap today, given that upside with this good of a matchup.
- I do like Manoah, Burnes, May, and Lopez for GPP options, but with all priced at $9.5k or higher, I will gladly pay the extra $1k for deGrom in cash games. Shohei Ohtani ($10,800) is the only other SP I could see using in cash games as he has a similar ceiling as deGrom, and the offense he’s facing does have the lowest projected total of the slate at under 2.7 runs.
- Tommy Edman ($2,900) is where I’m starting my cash game lineup today as he’s hitting 2nd and is the best way to get cheap exposure to STL today. Using him should make it pretty easy to fit in Paul Goldschmidt ($4,200) and/or Nolan Arenado ($4,000), and if you want another cheap bat from STL, I’d go with Tyler O’Neill ($3,100) or Willson Contreras ($3,100).
- I want some Toronto exposure, and Daulton Varsho ($3,400) is a fine play for the price likely hitting cleanup or 5th today. Belt ($2,200), Biggio ($2,100), and Kiermaier ($2,500) are OK fill-in bats if you need some extreme salary savings, while Matt Chapman ($3,800) is probably the hottest hitter in baseball right now and where I’d spend up if you want a big TOR bat.
- Corey Seager ($3,000) remains way too cheap and will likely be one of, if not the highest-owned SS today, especially after putting up over 34 FP yesterday. Hunter Renfroe ($2,800) also remains way too cheap after hitting his 3rd HR in as many games yesterday and is my favorite way to get cheap LAA exposure.
- More cheap bats I like today include Nelson Cruz ($2,400), Jared Kelenic ($2,400), Cody Bellinger ($2,700), Ozzie Albies ($3,000), Jurickson Profar ($2,800), Ryan McMahon ($3,200), Rowdy Tellez ($2,600), and JD Martinez ($3,100).
- deGrom ($9,900) and Ohtani ($9,700) are both somehow under $10k, and they will be my SPs for cash games as there’s plenty of value to fit them in easily. Alek Manoah ($7,700) is super cheap in a great matchup with DET, so if you absolutely need the $2k in savings, I could see going with him in cash games. Pablo Lopez ($7,300) is one of my favorite GPP plays of the slate at a phenomenal price, and Corbin Burnes ($8,500) is probably the cheapest he’ll be all season, so I don’t mind taking a shot on him in GPPs too.
- Edman ($3,900) remains a great starting point in cash games, and I will almost certainly go with Willson Contreras ($4,200) as my catcher. Jordan Walker ($2,900) is also in play at this low price, and I like that he’s hitting 7th instead of 8th today.
- Varsho ($4,000) and Chapman ($4,800) remain my top TOR targets for the price, and I love the price of Jarred Kelenic ($3,000) hitting in Wrigley with the wind blowing out, along with Cody Bellinger ($3,400).
- Winker ($3,400), Tellez ($3,400), and Mitchell ($2,900) make for a solid value stack from MIL, while Jurickson Profar ($3,800), Elias Diaz ($3,500), Mike Moustakas ($2,700), and Harold Castro ($2,400) are a strong cheap stack for COL.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!