MLB DFS Slate Preview: Tuesday, April 18
Erik Wardenburg previews the Tuesday, April 18th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Today’s eleven-game slate has similar vibes as yesterday, as there are a couple of ace SPs in a tier of their own and another massive game total at Coors Field along with wind blowing out there. There are also plenty of great stacks outside of Coors, and with some warmer weather than yesterday and no rain to worry about, at least a couple of offenses could definitely match a Coors team explosion.
One of those teams is the Cubs, who’ve scored 8+ runs in three of their last six games, and today face one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season in the lefty Waldichuk. Over three starts this year Waldichuk has allowed seven HRs, seven walks, 22 hits, and 17 ERs, so this 4.5 Cubs team total is looking waaaaaay too low. They also have the hottest hitter on the planet in Patrick Wisdom, who has five HR’s in his last four games, so make sure to get some Cubs in your cash game team or stack them up in some GPP lineups.
There’s so much more to talk about along with some of my favorite MLB DFS picks so let’s dive in!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- There should be no rain to worry about today, but plenty of wind is in play along with some warmer temps in a few places. PIT/COL, ARI/STL, and TEX/KCR will be in the low 70s to high 60s, with KC seeing 14 mph wind out to left, and COL seeing 20-25 mph wind out to right.
- LAA/NYY will be in the low 50s but see 10-15mph wind out to center, so bump to the bats here. MIN/BOS is looking similar with temps in the low 50s and 10mph wind blowing out.
- SD, OAK, and LAD will also be in the 50s, with OAK seeing the most wind at 10-13mph blowing out. The dome games today are TOR/HOU and MIL/SEA.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Mookie Betts is going on the paternity list, so James Outman will hit leadoff tonight and Peralta will join the lineup.
- Ramon Urias remains out, so look for Henderson to start at 3B, and we’ll see if he continues to hit 7th with Adam Frazier moving up to 5th like last game.
- The Angels gave Ward and Trout a game off each in their last two, which allowed Zach Neto to hit leadoff in both. With the Angels likely having all their regulars available today, I’d expect Neto to drop back down in the order and possibly as low as 8th.
- Stanton is out indefinitely with a hamstring strain, so Gleyber Torres should be the regular clean-up hitter for now, and against lefties like today I’d expect Kiner-Falefa to get more starts at DH or in the OF.
- Boston called up Jarren Duran yesterday, and he responded with a double, walk, and an SB, so I’d expect him to get another start today, likely at the expense of Tapia.
- The Rangers moved Jankowski up to second in the order yesterday, so I’d expect that to continue. Adolis Garcia will be back in there at cleanup after getting a breather yesterday. Heim, Smith, and Taveras are getting days off with Duran, Miller, and Leon starting for them.
- Chas McCormick is heading to the IL with a back issue, so Dubon will continue to hit leadoff with Meyers getting most of the CF starts.
- PIT is giving McCutchen a day off, so Joe will bat 3rd and play first with Santana DH-ing. Marcano is also starting today with Castro getting a breather. COL is giving Montero a breather with Trejo getting a start.
- Winker is back at DH for MIL but Contreras is getting a day off, and I’m curious to see if Baty or Escobar get the start at 3B for the Mets today against the lefty Kershaw.
- STL is giving Arenado and Walker days off, so Contreras will move up to clean-up while Nootbaar, O’Neill, and Carlson will man the outfield. Donovan is also out now so Nootbaar will move to leadoff, and Motter will join the lineup.
- The Pirates are my top stack today, as Jose Urena is easily one of the worst SPs in the league. Urena has allowed 17 hits, 8 walks, 5 HRs, and 11 ER over three starts this year, and I’d be shocked if he made it past the 3rd inning today. The Rockies have to be considered the next best stack as the wind blowing out in Coors is just unfair for an already hitter friendly park. The Cubs and Yankees are my next two favorite stacks, as both face bad lefties with wind blowing out. BAL, STL, TEX, and LAD are some other stacks I like taking shots on today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- There are a ton of pitchers going today that I want nothing to do with in any format, but for cash games, we have some really strong options in Strider ($10,800) and Gilbert ($9,700). Meanwhile Kershaw ($10k), Stroman ($11k), and even Snell ($7.4k) all have their merits. Snell has a brutal matchup with Atlanta, who he faced in his second start of the year and went for just 5 FP, but his salary keeps falling and if he can put up 20+ FP today, he may be the key to a top lineup as you can really load up Coors bats along with studs from a couple of other games. Right now, I’m leaning towards Strider as my SP1, but if I absolutely need another $1k in salary for my favorite bats, Gilbert will be my guy.
- I have to start with Ke’Bryan Hayes ($2,900) and Kris Bryant ($3,100) again today, as neither saw a price change after big games yesterday. Even without the platoon advantages today, they are both still way too cheap given the hitting conditions and projected run totals for their teams. Santana ($3.2k), Smith-Njigba ($2.7k), Suwinski ($2.7k), Profar ($2.8k), Blackmon ($3.3k), and McMahon ($3.2k) are my other favorite values to target from Coors Field.
- I’m going to the Cubs next for cash game exposure, as their entire projected lineup is underpriced in a fantastic matchup today. Hoerner ($3,400) and Swanson ($3,300) provide big-time SB upside along with HR upside, while Suzuki ($3,000) is way too cheap for a high upside cleanup hitter, and Wisdom ($3,300) is going to be $4k+ soon if he keeps hitting an HR every game.
- Willson Contreras ($2,400) is one of my favorite extreme value plays today, as it’s hard to find someone under $2.5k with his kind of upside. He’s 4 for his last 8 with three doubles, has a couple of stolen bases over his last five games, and should have plenty of RBI opportunities hitting cleanup today.
- Anthony Volpe ($2,800) is another value bat that will be hard to fade in cash games, as he should hit leadoff, has the platoon advantage on Suarez, and is hitting in 10+ mph wind blowing out. If you have the salary and positions available, I like stacking him with Judge ($4,300) for a 1-2 punch at the top of the Yankees order currently projected for the highest run total outside of the Coors.
- It’s a bit of a harder decision on DK for cash game SPs, as Marcus Stroman ($8,800) is over $2k cheaper than FD, and in the best matchup of the slate against Oakland, I could definitely see using him over Strider ($10,400) or Gilbert ($8,500). Snell ($8,400) is only a GPP option for me at that price, and I also like Montgomery ($9,500), Gray ($8,600), and Rea ($6,700) as GPP plays.
- Hayes ($3,800) remains my favorite p/$ play of the slate, while Bryant ($5,500) likely won’t make my cash game lineup at that price. Carlos Santana ($3,400) is a fantastic 1B play at that price, and Jurickson Profar ($3,600) remains way underpriced as the leadoff man for a team projected for 6+ runs. Smith-Njigba ($2,500) and Suwinski ($2,700) will be hard to fade at those prices if they end up hitting 5th and 6th as projected.
- Hoerner ($4,400) and Wisdom ($4,500) are my favorite plays from the Cubs, while Anthony Volpe ($3,300) remains underpriced and is my top SS play on DK, and I like DJ LeMahieu ($4,400) for more NYY exposure. Our Underdog Fantasy promo code offers a great bonus for new signups, and today I like going higher on 7.5 fantasy points for Volpe.
- Chris Sale is not someone to avoid bats against anymore, and the Twins offer some fantastic extreme value options in Solano ($2,100), Miranda ($2,900), Vazquez ($2,700), and Garlick ($2,300).
- More cheap bats I like today include Adam Frazier ($2,900), Luis Garcia ($2,200), Dominic Smith ($2,600), Travis Jankowski ($2,500), Jarred Kelenic ($3,500), and Rodolfo Castro ($3,200).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!