MLB DFS Slate Preview: Tuesday, April 4
Erik Wardenburg previews the Tuesday, April 4th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Another 11 game main slate today with a good group of aces pitching, clear weather in almost every game, and plenty of projected high scoring offenses to target.
We’re still waiting on confirmation for the Orioles starting pitcher, as Tyler Wells was supposed to go today but had to pitch 5 innings yesterday after Kyle Bradish got hurt early. Right now Kyle Gibson is a strong candidate to move up a day and start on regular rest, but make sure to double check later when we know for sure. (Update: Kyle Gibson will start)
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can get a better idea if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games that are at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- TOR/KCR has a slim chance of a late inning delay as a big storm or two will pop up likely after the game. It’s not enough to make me worry about the game not being played or pitchers being pulled early though. The reason to fade pitching in this game is the 75-80 degree temps and 25mph winds blowing out to left.
- ATL/STL has the next best hitting conditions with warm temps and winds out to left at 15-20mph, while TB/WSH only has 5mph winds out to left with temps in the mid 70s.
- PHI/NYY & PIT/BOS will both have slight wind blowing in, CLE/OAK has 10mph winds out to right, and COL/LAD has a left to right crosswind of 15mph.
- Today’s dome games are LAA/SEA, DET/HOU, BAL/TEX, and NYM/MIL.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit that extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Yandy Diaz and Jose Siri will both be back in the lineup for the Rays after getting breathers yesterday, and Michael Chavis will crack the lineup for Washington against the lefty Fleming.
- TOR and KC will both stack as many righties as possible against opposing lefty pitchers. Olivares and Reyes will hit 2nd and 4th respectively for KC, while Chapman will move to cleanup for TOR and Kirk will get a day off. STL is also facing a lefty in rookie Dylan Dodd, and with Nootbaar going on the IL, Juan Yepez was recalled and will be in the lineup at DH for another righty bat. Edman and Carlson will hit 1-2 against the lefty with Donovan getting a breather for Motter at 2B today.
- We’ll see if Ramon Urias gets another start for BAL at leadoff against the lefty Heaney, and Tommy Pham will be in the Mets lineup against the lefty Miley.
- Anthony Rendon will sit out his 2nd game of his 4 game suspension, and SEA should have a similar lineup as yesterday against another lefty, although Cal Raleigh may be back in the lineup after sitting yesterday.
- The Dodgers have a decision each game against righties of which two to start between Peralta, Outman, Heyward, and Thompson (assuming Betts plays OF over 2B). Outman seems like a lock against righties most days, while Heyward could start getting more starts over Peralta if he keeps producing (HR yesterday).
- My favorite stack is Toronto as they currently have a 5.6 projected run total, are facing a mediocre lefty, and are hitting in fantastic weather with big wind blowing out. TB, NYY, BOS, STL, HOU, and LAD are all great offenses to stack as well with all projected for 4.5+ runs currently. ATL, CLE, and TEX may go under-owned today, but I like having exposure to all of their offenses too, especially in GPPs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For some insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, be sure to read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Framber Valdez ($9,800) should be the most popular SP today in cash games, as he’s the 5th most expensive but has the highest projected ceiling against Detroit. The Tigers did break out with 7 runs yesterday against the righty Brown, but against lefty starters this year they’ve put up 1 total run, so I’m expecting another quiet night on offense for them with Valdez putting up a big line.
- If you have the extra salary and want to be different from the majority of cash game lineups, then Shane Bieber ($11,000) would be my pick against Oakland. Julio Urias ($10,500) is one of my favorite GPP pitchers, while Max Scherzer ($10,800) and Luis Castillo ($10,100) can always break a slate, but are going up against hot offenses. For cheap GPP pitching I like taking shots on Andrew Heaney ($8,800), Nick Pivetta ($8,500), Domingo German ($7,700), and Wade Miley ($6,600).
- I definitely want exposure to TOR/KCR bats in cash games with this fantastic hitting weather, and Franmil Reyes ($2,200) is by far my favorite value option for KC. He’s hitting cleanup today, and against lefties in his career he’s hit 27 points higher compared to righties, and Kikuchi has a career .276 average allowed to righties. Hunter Dozier ($2,400) and Edwards Olivares ($2,300) are other fine value bats for KC, while Bobby Witt ($3,600) has huge upside if you have the salary for him.
- Toronto bats are pricier overall, but there’s still some great value options in Matt Chapman ($3,000) and Whit Merrifield ($2,800) who will be out for some revenge against his former KC team. It’s going to be hard to fit all of them, but I’d try getting at least one or two of George Springer ($3,800), Bo Bichette ($3,900), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,000) in your cash game lineup.
- The Rays are also hitting in nice weather, and have some great value bats in Yandy Diaz ($2,900), Brandon Lowe ($3,100), and Luke Raley ($2,100). Raley is coming off a 2-HR game yesterday and will likely hit 5th today making him a top punt value play.
- Masataka Yoshida ($3,200), Adam Duvall ($3,300), and Triston Casas ($2,800) remain a top stack as they all remain underpriced given their production so far this season, and I also really like the triple stack of Giancarlo Stanton ($3,100), Josh Donaldson ($2,800), and Gleyber Torres ($3,500).
- More cheap bats to consider in cash games include Dylan Carlson ($2,400), Jeremy Pena ($3,000), Amed Rosario ($2,800), JD Martinez ($2,900), James Outman ($2,600), Tommy Edman ($2,900), and Jordan Walker ($2,500).
- Framber Valdez ($9,900) remains my favorite SP1 on DK, and none of the cheap SPs have a safe enough floor, so I’ll go with either Shane Bieber ($10,500) or Julio Urias ($10,200) as my SP2 as I like their matchups more than Scherzer and Castillo.
- Franmil Reyes ($2,900), Darick Hall ($2,600), and Luke Raley ($2,300) remain three of my favorite value bats with huge upside, and Brandon Lowe ($3,400) went down $300 overnight and is a top value option at 2B.
- Triston Casas ($2,500) should be at least $3k as he’s averaging over 7 FPPG on DK this season and will continue to have plenty of RBI chances hitting 6th for Boston. Adam Duvall ($4,200) finally cracked $4k but is still cheap enough to consider for cash games.
- The Toronto bats are underpriced for this good of a matchup and hitting conditions, so expect Springer ($5,000), Bichette ($4,900), and Vlad ($5,400) to be in most cash game lineups, while Matt Chapman ($4,100) is my favorite 3B play for cash games..
- Other cheap bats I like today include Dylan Carlson ($3,100), Jose Siri ($3,000), Josh Donaldson ($3,200), Mark Canha ($3,700), James Outman ($3,200), Miguel Vargas ($2,300), Hunter Dozier ($2,500), and Jordan Walker ($2,400).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!