MLB DFS Slate Preview: Tuesday, August 1
Taylor Smith previews the Tuesday, August 1st slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
It’s August, which means the 2023 MLB regular season has just two months to go. Today is also trade deadline day, which means we could see some moving and shaking over the course of the afternoon. The deadline will hit at 6 ET, just an hour before the first games lock. We’ve also got a banger of an MLB slate on tap, with 14 games including another potentially wet one at Coors Field.
How should we sort through the chaos? Let’s unearth some of the best MLB DFS picks for Tuesday’s 14-game bonanza.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- The Padres and Rockies managed to get a game in last night despite a 2.5-hour delay and consistent showers during the game. That’s the kind of commitment the Nationals couldn’t even dream of, and Kevin Roth’s early forecast says we could have more of the same tonight. This game has an ORANGE/YELLOW tag, though last night does seem to be a pretty good indicator that the Rockies plan to get these games in at whatever cost.
- NYM/KC is a straight YELLOW for the possibility of an in-game delay, though Roth says it’s not necessarily the most likely outcome. This game also has winds blowing in from right field at around 10 mph.
- CIN/CHC is GREEN with 10 mph winds in from right field, as well.
- LAA/ATL and NYM/KC are the hottest games of the slate with temps in the upper-80s by first pitch. ARI/SF has the best pitching weather with temperatures just under 60 by the time the game starts.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Zach Eflin left his last start with a knee injury, but he’s apparently good to make his next start tonight in the Bronx. He threw a 25-pitch bullpen session over the weekend and didn’t report any further trouble, so we’re expecting a full leash for the right-hander tonight.
- Lance Lynn has really struggled to keep the ball in the yard this season, but the Dodgers have a way of getting the best out of pitchers. He’ll make his LA debut tonight at home against the lowly A’s, which is a pretty good spot for a guy with power prevention issues.
- The Padres say Pedro Avila will start tonight in Colorado. He’s pitched a total of 5 innings across 2 relief appearances in the majors this season, so there’s a good chance this is just an opener situation. Lefty Ryan Weathers was originally projected to start.
- Brendan Donovan will have season-ending arm surgery.
- Austin Hedges has reportedly been traded to the Rangers. Endy Rodriguez will get the start behind the plate for the Pirates tonight.
- Dodger legend Hyun-jin Ryu will make his 2023 debut for the Blue Jays after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The matchup at home against the Orioles is a tough one, but Ryu isn’t expected to be on a very strict leash after a successful rehab stint in the minors.
- Jose Quintana is slated to start for the Mets tonight in Kansas City, but the veteran lefty has reportedly drawn some trade interest. It wouldn’t be a huge shock if he’s on another team by the time the deadline rolls around, which will obviously force Buck Showalter to change his plans for tonight’s game.
- Harrison Bader isn’t in the Yankees’ lineup tonight, which comes on the heels of his name being mentioned in trade talks.
- Ji-Man Choi was traded to the Padres, so he obviously won’t be in the Pirates’ lineup tonight against Matt Manning and the Tigers.
- Mookie Betts is questionable for the Dodgers after he was scratched from the lineup on Saturday with a sore ankle. He missed Sunday’s game with the same issue. Will Smith (elbow) and J.D. Martinez (hamstring) both left Sunday’s game, which puts both very much in question ahead of tonight’s contest against Ken Waldichuk and the A’s.
- Bo Bichette departed last night’s loss to the O’s with right knee discomfort. He’s officially day-to-day, but we currently have Santiago Espinal projected to start at shortstop tonight in his place.
- Ha-Seong Kim started last night’s game, which was a surprise after he left Sunday’s clash against Texas with a shoulder injury. Luis Campusano is also in the Padres’ projected lineup for tonight, which would presumably send Gary Sanchez back to the bench. The Padres traded Alfonso Rivas to the Pirates today, so he won’t crack the lineup, of course.
- Justin Turner left last night’s game in Seattle with a heel contusion. The Red Sox don’t believe it to be a long-term injury by any means, but we’ll see if he cracks the lineup tonight against the Mariners.
- Tommy Edman was activated off the IL, while the Cardinals also traded Paul DeJong to Toronto. Edman should be in the lineup tonight.
- Nolan Jones missed last night’s game against the Padres after leaving Sunday’s game due to cramping. Jones isn’t in our projected Rockies lineup for tonight’s game.
- The Diamondbacks traded Josh Rojas, Dominic Canzone, and a minor leaguer to Seattle yesterday in exchange for Paul Sewald. Later in the evening, Arizona landed Jace Peterson in another deal from Oakland. Rojas and Peterson aren’t in the projected lineups for their respective new teams tonight, however.
- Chas McCormick got a night off for the Astros yesterday, but he’s due to return tonight against Gavin Williams. Martin Maldonado is also expected to start at catcher after Yainer Diaz got the assignment last night.
- Nolan Gorman is day-to-day after he was scratched from Sunday’s lineup with back tightness. Edman and Taylor Motter would be candidates to start at second base if Gorman is still sidelined tonight.
- There’s a chance the A’s activate Esteury Ruiz from the IL ahead of tonight’s game in LA. He’s been sidelined for nearly a month by a shoulder issue.
- The Giants sent Mike Yastrzemski to the IL yesterday with a hamstring strain. Isan Diaz came up from the minors to take Yaz’s spot on the roster.
- Coors didn’t Coors last night, but last night’s slate should have no bearing on how we approach tonight’s. The Padres may roll with a bullpen game, while the Rockies will start Peter Lambert. The Padres again have an implied run total north of 6 runs and the vastly more talented offense, so they’re popping as the top projected stack on the slate by a wide margin. The Rockies are a solid value stack on the other side of the game against Weathers, a lefty that hasn’t found much consistent success at the MLB level.
- Just like last night, the Astros and Braves are two more compelling stacks if you’re looking to avoid Coors. We’ll see how the Dodger lineup looks amid a handful of injuries, but they’re another team with an implied run total of over 5 tonight at home against Waldichuk. The issue most all of these top stacks is that they’re fairly expensive, which will make them difficult to stack along with premium pitching.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Spencer Strider struggled a bit in his last start in Boston, but I’ll bet most pitchers would be thrilled to “struggle” and still rack up 10 strikeouts. Strider’s $11,300 salary makes him the most expensive pitcher on tonight’s FD slate by a decent margin, but he also projects well ahead of the field from a median standpoint. Strider is a building block in all formats on FD tonight, as usual.
- Zac Gallen, Pablo Lopez, Freddy Peralta, and Framber Valdez are your other pricey options. Valdez has been in rickety form of late, but this is a decent spot against a low-power, lefty-heavy Guardians lineup at home. Cleveland still won’t strike out much vs. left-handed pitching (19.5%), but I don’t mind Framber as a lower-owned Strider pivot in GPPs. Lance Lynn ($9,400) draws the A’s at home, which is enough to keep him in my GPP player pool, as well. The strikeouts (26.9%) have still been there for the veteran, even if he’s having trouble keeping the ball from flying over the fence.
- The Padres are once again starting points in cash game builds, and they’re the primary decision points in GPPs. Lambert has flashed some groundball ability, but he won’t miss any bats (15.7% Ks). SD’s 4 superstars – Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, and Soto – hit the ball on the ground more than we’d like, but I’ll go right back to the well with all of them in the best hitter’s park of them all. Jake Cronenworth ($3,100) and Ha-Seong Kim ($3,600) would be my next stops in stacks, while Trent Grisham ($3,200) still has good power for a lower-in-the-order hitter.
- Stacking the Rockies never feels great, especially now that C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk are gone. They will come at a fraction of the Padres’ ownership, though, and Weathers doesn’t have any discernible strengths as a pitcher. He’s only striking out about 14% of righties, which bodes well for Ezequiel Tovar ($3,100), Elias Diaz ($3,300), Elehuris Montero ($2,900), Michael Toglia ($3,000), and Brendan Rodgers ($2,500). Unlike the Pads, you can pretty easily stack Colorado and still afford Strider, which is an approach I love in tournaments. Coors is still Coors for both teams.
- The Braves didn’t muster much of anything against Chase Silseth last night, and they’ll face a decent real-life pitcher in Patrick Sandoval tonight. Sandoval’s strikeout stuff has seemingly dried up this season (18.8%), though he is still generating groundballs (51%). The issue is pitching to contact against the Braves is a recipe for disaster. This projected lineup has a collective barrel rate of over 14% against southpaws this year. Ronald Acuna ($4,700) is just as appealing as any Coors hitter, while you’re hunting home runs with Ozzie Albies ($3,900), Austin Riley ($3,900), and Sean Murphy ($3,600). Matt Olson (19.7% barrels) has also done significant damage against same-handed pitching, so keep him in your GPP player pool.
- One under-the-radar stack I don’t mind chasing in tournaments is the Red Sox. Bryce Miller throws his fastball about two-thirds of the time, and he’s yielded an 11% barrel rate so far this season. Rafael Devers owns an overall barrel rate of about 13% against right-handed pitching, while he’s over 19% against right-handed fastballs. Over on Underdog, Devers looks like a good value to total more than 7.5 fantasy points in this matchup. Speaking of Underdog, you can use our Underdog promo code for a 100% match bonus on your next deposit, up to $100.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Adam Duvall ($3,300), Jarren Duran ($3,100), and Masataka Yoshida ($3,200) can help you round out that Boston stack on FanDuel.
- It’s worth noting the Dodgers have gotten considerably cheaper on the heels of last week’s trades. Amed Rosario ($2,900) and Enrique Hernandez ($2,500) will be in the starting lineup tonight against Waldichuk, though it’s worth noting they’re both pinch-hit risks whenever the A’s bring a right-hander out of the bullpen. Chris Taylor ($2,800) is another cheapie with good numbers vs. LHPs, while even Will Smith ($3,500) isn’t overly pricey on FD. I expect Mookie Betts ($4,200) to be back in there tonight as the headliner in any LAD stack.
- Strider is again the headliner on DK, but he’s still coming in with that 2017 Russell Westbrook pricing ($12,500). I’m still inclined to pay up for Strider in all formats, though his 32% pOWN suggests I’m not the only one. This is a 14-game slate with plenty of options, though, so I don’t believe Strider is an absolute must in tournaments. It’s risky, but you can try some different pairings in GPP builds.
- Valdez ($11,100), Lopez ($10,800), Gallen ($10,500), and Eflin ($10,300) are all solid pivots in favorable enough matchups. None of them brings the ceiling Strider does, but pitchers have wide ranges of outcomes. Gallen is my favorite of the 5-figure alternatives on DK, but we can go even cheaper. Carlos Rodon ($9,000) showed signs of coming around in his last start, while Lynn ($7,900) is again wildly cheap on DK. I’m as tired of chasing the homer-prone Lynn as you are, but I’m willing to hop back on the bandwagon here against an A’s lineup with a collective .146 ISO vs. right-handed pitching. Alex Cobb ($8,200) and Brayan Bello ($8,900) will make my tournament player pool, as will the $6,200 Johan Oviedo against the lowly Tigers as a punt.
- Ha-Seong Kim ($4,700) looks like the best value among the premium Padres on DK, while Grisham ($3,300) is again a standout with a cheap salary and power potential. I’m making Tatis ($6,500) the go-to spend if I can only afford one of the top-tier Padres for his power/speed combination. Following a dud of a performance last night, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if San Diego came in with reasonable GPP ownership tonight. There’s still some questionable weather here, and paying for Strider instead will be a priority for most.
- Brendan Rodgers ($2,600) may be the best point-per-dollar value bat on the slate. He made his season debut last night after missing significant time with a shoulder injury, and he’s one of the few hitters in this lineup that projects to be a competent hitter at the big-league level. The matchup with Weathers isn’t at all scary, though Rodgers will likely be the Rockies’ only hitter garnering much ownership.
- Another value stack to consider in Strider builds is the Royals. Assuming he’s still a Met past the deadline, Quintana is a lefty that has endured some power-prevention issues over the course of his career. Bobby Witt ($5,300) will cost you, but the rest of the stack won’t. Maikel Garcia ($3,600) is another value I’d consider in all formats, while Freddy Fermin ($2,800), Drew Waters ($2,200), Matt Duffy ($2,000), and Edward Olivares ($2,600) project pretty well for the dollar. Remember, this game also features some of the better hitting weather on the slate.
- If you’re in the market for some punts, Daniel Vogelbach ($2,400), Manuel Margot ($2,200), Kevin Pillar ($2,100), DJ Stewart ($2,000), Chris Taylor ($3,000), and Jakob Bauers ($2,300) are useful one-offs.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck!