MLB DFS Slate Preview: Tuesday, August 15th
Erik Wardenburg previews the Tuesday, August 15th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Huge 13-game slate today with a couple games having potential rain issues, more huge projected run totals in Coors Field, and the return of Michael Wacha after missing over a month.
Ozzie Albies going on the IL is the biggest injury news, and I’m excited to see how Hancock does in his second MLB start against the Royals.
There were a bunch of transactions late in the day yesterday, so let’s review those along with some of my favorite MLB DFS picks for today!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- PIT/NYM is rated orange currently, as there will be scattered storms through 10pm. It shouldn’t be constant rain, so maybe they’ll just need a late start, but some sort of delay is likely and a PPD is on the table. Use players here with caution unless there’s a big upgrade in risk factor closer to lock. Temps in the mid 70s, with 8mph blowing in if the game does play.
- BOS/WSH will have storms around DC through the afternoon and early evening, but should fade around sunset. If some of these storms end up over the ballpark, we could see the game get washed out. Right now, it’s more likely they either remain near the park or clip it, which could cause a late start. Pre-game radar will give us more clarity, so check closer to lock if you plan on using anyone here. Temps in the high 70s, with a slight breeze blowing in.
- As if we needed more reason to stack Coors Field, it is the hottest game on the slate, with temps in the high 80s at first pitch and a slight right to left breeze. NYY/ATL is also great hitting weather, with temps in the low 80s, high humidity, and 10mph wind out to left center. MIL/LAD also gets a bump for hitters as it will be in the high 70s with 6-10mph wind out to right center.
- DET/MIN will be in the mid 70s, with 5-10mph wind out to left center. OAK/STL in the mid 70s, with a slight left to right breeze. CHW/CHC in the low 70s, with 6-10 mph in from left. SEA/KC in the low 70s with barely any wind. BAL/SD also in the low 70s with not much wind. TB/SF in the low 70s with 10mph wind out to left center.
- Dome games today are LAA/TEX and PHI/TOR.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Boston used Verdugo at leadoff in their last game against a righty SP, so we’ll see if that continues today and Duran stays down in the order. CJ Abrams is questionable after leaving early last game with back spasms.
- With Ozzie Albies going on the IL, look for Nicky Lopez to get most of the 2B time now, and Michael Harris will likely remain in the 2-hole after hitting there yesterday. Vaughn Grissom was called up to help at 2B as well, likely against lefties.
- With Tony Kemp returning from the paternity list yesterday, the A’s now have six guys who can play most of the OF spots, so at least a couple of them will have to be out of the lineup each day. We’ll see who it is today between Ruiz, Bleday, Kemp, Rooker, Brown, and Butler.
- Willson Contreras left yesterday’s game early with hip tightness, so it seems pretty likely he’ll get at least today off and Knizner will catch.
- Luis Robert is hopeful to be able to return to the lineup today with his pinky sprain, but consider him questionable for now. The same goes for CJ Cron and his lingering back issues.
- Kyle Lewis was recalled yesterday for McCarthy, so he’ll almost certainly start again today against a lefty. Charlie Blackmon came off the IL yesterday, so look for him to DH most days down the stretch with some OF starts here and there. Profar got lucky with his knee injury and didn’t require an MRI, but he still may get another game off.
- Aaron Hicks came off the IL for Baltimore yesterday, with Cowser being sent back down. Hicks and Hays will likely split time in LF against righties. Ji-Man Choi went on the IL for the Padres and Ben Gamel was called up, so we may see Gamel get some starts against righties.
- Wander Franco went on the restricted list yesterday, so don’t plan on seeing him for a while, if at all again this season. The Giants sent down Matos and Mathias for Meckler and Camargo, who should both see regular time against righties, especially if Davis continues to struggle at 3B.
- There’s a chance JD Martinez returns for the Dodgers today, and if he does it would likely bump Hernandez from our projected lineup.
- The Braves are my favorite stack today hitting in great weather at home against Severino, who’s allowed 3+ ER in four straight starts including 6 HR’s in that span. Ty Blach continues to not strikeout anyone, so the D-Backs are in a great spot to erupt today hitting in hot Coors Field weather and are a stack you should definitely have exposure to in some capacity. The same goes for COL against a bullpen game for Arizona. LAD, STL, and SEA round out of my top stacks for today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- We have a few solid SPs in the $9k-$11k range, but in order to fit as many ATL and ARI bats in my cash game lineup, I like going with someone much cheaper. Touki Toussaint ($7,000) has 18 strikeouts over his last two starts, and with cooler temps and the wind blowing in at Wrigley today, it’s looking like another spot where Toussaint could be a great p/$ play if he can limit HR’s and go a little deeper for the quality start and potential win bonuses. Dakota Hudson ($6,400) and Zack Littell ($5,700) have solid matchups against OAK and SF respectively, so if you need even more salary for your bats, I don’t mind dropping to one of them in the hopes they can get you 30+ FP.
- Michael Harris ($3,200) is my top p/$ bat of the slate, as he should hit second on my top stack and we haven’t had an ATL bat in the top half of the order this cheap for a long time. Ozuna ($2,700) and Rosario ($2,800) remain fantastic values for more cheap ATL exposure, and using them will make it very easy to fit in at least one or two of Acuna, Olson, and/or Riley.
- Christian Walker ($4,000) is the highest upside D-Backs bat, hitting cleanup with the platoon advantage in Coors Field. Tommy Pham ($3,300) sat yesterday, but should be in there hitting third or fifth, and he’s one of my favorite p/$ bats of the slate. Gurriel ($3,500) and Marte ($4,000) are also in play but not priorities for me, while Kyle Lewis ($2,500) is a boom or bust value option at OF.
I like taking higher than 1.5 total bases for Pham on Underdog, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- STL’s entire starting lineup remains underpriced, so I like finding a way to get a couple of their bats in your main build. Goldschmidt ($3,300) and Arenado ($3,400) are always the first choices, but if you need someone cheaper, then O’Neill ($2,500) is the top choice along with Burleson ($2,200) or Walker ($2,600).
- More value bats I’m liking today include Trea Turner ($3,000), Carlos Correa ($2,700), Yoan Moncada ($2,500), Eugenio Suarez ($2,700), Michael Massey ($2,300), Ezequiel Tovar ($3,200), Gunnar Henderson ($3,000), and David Peralta ($2,600).
- It’s a similar situation with SP on DK today, as I think most of the $9k+ SPs are overpriced, and I want a lot of high-priced bats from ATL & ARI today. Toussaint ($6,900), Hudson ($5,800), Hancock ($5,500), and even Pivetta ($7,800) for a little more salary are all on my radar for cash games, and I will likely have two of those four cheap guys in order to stack my hitters.
- Harris ($4,100) remains a top target for cash games along with Rosario ($3,700), and if you don’t mind using someone at the bottom of the order, Nicky Lopez ($2,500) should be on your value radar.
- Kyle Lewis ($2,300) is by far the best p/$ value for Arizona if you need an extreme salary saver in the OF. I prefer Pham ($4,200), Walker ($5,400), or Gurriel ($4,700) for my AZ exposure, as they should be easy to fit if you go with two cheap SPs and each have higher floors than Lewis.
- Tyler O’Neill ($3,800) remains the best value option from STL, while Burleson ($2,900) and Walker ($3,000) are other solid values for more cheap exposure. Blackmon ($3,300) and Rodgers ($3,300) are my top p/$ targets from COL.
- The Twins offer some nice value bats in Julien ($3,100), Kepler ($3,300), Jeffers ($3,500), and Wallner ($2,400) if you want a value GPP stack or a couple one-offs to complete your cash game lineup.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!