MLB DFS Slate Preview: Tuesday, July 18
Erik Wardenburg previews the Tuesday, July 18th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Besides MIL and PHI, every team is on the main slate, so we have 14 games to target today. Currently, six games have at least a green/yellow weather rating, so be sure to check any games with potential rain closer to lock.
Coors Field is back in play as the Astros begin a series there, and they are the obvious top offense of the slate, as it’ll be 80+ degrees with a slight breeze blowing out against a bullpen game for COL. Atlanta should also be a popular offense to target hitting in 90+ degree heat, and they currently have a big 6+ run team total.
Plenty more MLB DFS picks to talk about along with today’s news and notes, so let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Of course the two top offenses of the slate are rated yellow for rain currently, as ARI/ATL and HOU/COL both have a chance for some delays. Unless the forecasts get much, much worse closer lock, I will likely risk both HOU and ATL bats in cash games, as delays really only hurt the pitching. 85-95 degree heat in ATL, and 75-85 degrees in COL.
- LAD/BAL, CLE/PIT, SFG/CIN, and CHW/NYM all have low chances of a delay, and for now, I’m treating them all as safe games to target until we get an update later. Great hitting weather in BAL with temps in the high 80s, mid-70s for PIT and CIN, and low 80s for NYM.
- MIA/STL will be in the high 70s, WSH/CHC in the low 70s and 5-10mph wind blowing in, DET/KCR in the low 80s with 10mph wind blowing in, NYY/LAA in the mid-70s, and BOS/OAK in the low 60s with 5-10mph wind out to right.
- Dome games today are MIN/SEA, TBR/TEX, & SDP/TOR.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Cedric Mullins remains out with his quad tightness, giving Cowser another start in the outfield.
- Fernando Tatis was able to pinch-hit last game with his sprained ankle, and he’s back in the starting lineup today. Rougned Odor has been DFA’d, so look for Carpenter and Rivas to get most of the DH time against righties.
- Eloy Jimenez is expected to miss several games with his groin injury, so look for Vaughn to move up to the clean-up spot and Colas to get most of the RF playing time against righties.
- Eddie Rosario missed the last game with hamstring tightness and will remain out today. Hilliard is starting for him.
- Fermin should continue to start at catcher until Perez returns from his hamstring injury. Olivares is off the IL and will DH today.
- The Yankees showed a new-look lineup yesterday with Peraza at leadoff, and against a lefty today, there’s a good chance he’s at leadoff again.
- Buxton, Solano, and Taylor are sitting for the Twins, so Wallner, Farmer, and Castro will start for them. Julio Rodriguez is getting a breather for Seattle so Pollock will start for him.
- HOU and ATL are my top stacks today, followed by BOS, CHC, and BAL. I also like having some stacks of SF and CIN, as both have team totals of around 5+ runs in a great hitters’ park against mediocre righties.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Alek Manoah ($6,600) is definitely not a “safe” option, but his price did drop $900 from his last start in which he put up 49 FP. He has a tougher matchup with SD today compared to DET last game, but he’s looking just a bit too cheap not to consider as a cash game SP who will allow you to load up on HOU and ATL bats. Ober ($9,800), Elder ($8,900), Montgomery ($9,100), and Woo ($8,100) are pricier SPs that can be considered for cash games, while Keller ($10,900), Musgrove ($9,600), Carrasco ($6,400), and Taillon ($6,300) are some GPP names I like today at various price points.
- The Astros are pretty much all underpriced, and I’d expect most cash game lineups to have a full stack of them today. Alex Bregman ($3,500) and Kyle Tucker ($4,300) are my priorities, followed by Jose Abreu ($3,200) and Mauricio Dubon ($3,300). Diaz, McCormick, and Pena are all fine options as well if you want to pivot to a lower-owned HOU bat.
- If you do go with Manoah or another cheap SP in your main build, it should be no problem fitting in Acuna ($4,700), as I think he’s the highest upside bat of the entire slate. I like stacking with him with 2-3 other ATL bats, mainly Albies ($3,900) and Olson ($4,300), but I don’t mind Riley ($3,500) either for a bit more salary savings.
- Gunnar Henderson ($3,000) and Adley Rutschman ($3,000) remain at fantastic salaries and are my favorite way to get some BAL exposure. Duran ($3,200), Yoshida ($3,300), and Casas ($2,800) are my top values from BOS.
I like taking higher than 1.5 total bases for Henderson on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- If Peraza ($2,300) hits leadoff again, he’s a fine extreme salary saver with the platoon advantage on Sandoval. Also at leadoff, I really like the price of CJ Abrams ($2,800), who has huge SB upside and has gone for 12+ FP in eight of his last nine starts. The Giants offer some nice value in Pederson ($3,000), Conforto ($3,000), and Yastrzemski ($2,900) and make for a great GPP value stack.
- So many solid value SPs on DK today, as even Hunter Brown ($8,100) is a cash game option at that low of a salary in Coors Field. Bryan Woo ($7,900) stands out as a top value SP, having gone for 17+ FP in every start this year, and the Twins currently have one of the lowest totals on the slate. Manoah ($7,100), Elder ($7,800), Montgomery ($8,200), Carrasco ($6,200), and Taillon ($6,800) all remain solid options for the price, and I’ll likely pair one of them with Woo in my main build.
- Kyle Tucker ($6,000) is priced correctly but is still one of the top targets if you can fit him. Alex Bregman ($4,900) is too cheap and will be a cash game lock for me, while Abreu ($3,700) and Dubon ($4,200) are going to be hard to fade at those prices. Chas McCormick ($3,400) is coming off b2b games of 32+ FP, and could be the best value from HOU on DK today.
- I’ll pick and choose from the ATL bats depending on salary available and positional needs, but it’s a scary idea not to have any exposure to them in cash games. Duran ($3,600), Yoshida ($4,300), and Casas ($2,500) remain great values from BOS, Henderson ($4,700) is still a favorite play from BAL, Abrams ($3,100) remains an excellent value from WSH, and Conforto ($3,400) / Yastrzemski ($3,000) are still a great value combo from SF.
- More top value options to consider include O’Hearn ($3,300), Davis ($2,500), Encarnacion-Strand ($2,000), Suzuki ($3,200), Vierling ($3,300), Peraza ($2,800), LeMahieu ($2,900), Gelof ($2,900), and Rooker ($3,300).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!