MLB DFS Slate Preview: Tuesday, July 4
Erik Wardenburg previews the Tuesday, July 4th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Happy 4th of July! Every team is playing today over a variety of slates, but both DK and FD are including the same five games on their “main slate”, so we’ll focus there today. It’s a 6:40PM EST slate lock, so hopefully you can get a few lineups in during/after your parties. Let’s check out today’s news, notes, and some MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- TOR/CHW, OAK/DET, and ATL/CLE all are very similar, with temps in the low 80s and slight breezes blowing in.
- LAA/SDP and PIT/LAD will both be in the low 70s, with the latter getting a 9mph breeze out to center and the former seeing an 8mph left-to-right cross breeze.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- The Tigers will get Skubal back from the IL in a great matchup with OAK. He’s cheap on both sites and definitely in play for GPPs and possibly cash games. DET also faces a lefty in Sears, so both lineups should be loaded with righty bats.
- Mike Trout hurt his wrist on a swing yesterday, and after the game, he said “I can’t describe the pain I felt.” Hopefully, this isn’t a long-term injury, but I’d expect him to be out of the lineup today. Moniak/Ward/Renfroe are likely to man the outfield.
- Josh Naylor is also dealing with a wrist injury and will get imaging today, so don’t expect to see him in the CLE lineup. This should give either Freeman or Fry the start for him, while Arias is also a candidate to crack the lineup somewhere against the lefty Allard.
- Oscar Colas is returning to the big leagues with Clint Frazier being sent down for him. Either Colas or Sheets will get the start in RF most days against righties.
- The Dodgers are by far my favorite stack today, as their projected run total is currently over a full run higher than any other team on this slate. I like ATL as a stack even against Bieber, while DET has a solid 4.5 total at home against Sears and make for a great value stack today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- There are plenty of SPs with big upside today, along with strong value options, but for cash games, I’m going with Ohtani ($10,800). If I were to go with a cheaper SP in my main build, it would be Tarik Skubal ($7,600) at home against OAK.
- Max Muncy ($3,400) is my favorite p/$ bat of the slate, followed by David Peralta ($2,400) and Freddie Freeman ($4,100). If you want a full LAD stack in cash games, I’d obviously try to jam in Betts ($4,500), but if you need a cheaper fourth bat, look to Heyward ($2,400).
I like taking higher than two 9.5 fantasy points for Freeman on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- JP Sears has been pretty solid overall this year, but he’s still allowed 13 ER and 6 HRs over his last four starts, so DET is a team I like targeting for value in cash games. Vierling ($2,700), Torkelson ($3,100), Ibanez ($2,500), and Baez ($2,600) will likely hit 1-4 in the order and make for an excellent cash game or GPP stack that will allow you to fit in plenty of expensive Dodgers bats.
- Pitching is much more interesting on DK today, as I really like both SPs in the LAA/SDP game. Ohtani ($11,500) is expensive but still the highest upside play of the slate, while Musgrove ($8,000) is $1.1k cheaper than FD and will likely face a LAA lineup without Trout in it. We also have excellent salaries for Skubal ($7,200) and Sears ($5,600), with Sears getting the huge $2,600 discount from FD. As of now, I’m leaning towards an Ohtani/Skubal cash game pairing, but if you want to load up on higher-priced bats, I don’t mind going with a Musgrove/Skubal or even Musgrove/Sears combo.
- Max Muncy ($5,000) remains my favorite p/$ Dodgers bat for cash games, and if you go with Ohtani at SP, you’ll likely need at least one of Peralta ($3,400) or Heyward ($3,000) to help fit him in, and both are great ways to get more LAD exposure for cheap.
- Vierling ($3,400) and Ibanez ($3,400) are the best values from DET, followed by Torkelson ($4,100), Baez ($4,300), and Rogers ($4,300). I don’t mind taking a couple of Pirates bats if you need more value, as Suwinski ($3,600), Santana ($3,100), Davis ($2,600), and Gonzales ($2,400) are all super cheap at a variety of positions to help complete your favorite lineup. Josh Bell ($2,800) and David Fry ($2,100) are also extreme salary-saver options (if Fry makes the CLE lineup).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!