duMLB DFS Slate Preview: Tuesday, June 13
Erik Wardenburg previews the Tuesday, June 13th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Every team is playing on today’s main slate besides ATL & DET, who have their own matchup just before. With 14 games to navigate, there will be some tough decisions between two or three players at pretty much every position for cash games, as there are just so many players in great spots. We may lose a game to the weather, though, as PIT/CHC is currently rated orange and is a game I’m looking to avoid today with plenty of other safe options.
I could go on and on about the interesting pitching matchups I’m looking forward to, but with so many games to get to, let’s just dive into today’s news, notes, and MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- As mentioned in the intro, I want nothing to do with PIT/CHC in cash games today, even if it avoids being PPD and ends up playing. Cold and wet conditions are rough for everyone, and the chance for mid-game rain delays completely put pitching off my radar. I may throw one GPP game stack in if I think there’s a shot it plays just because ownership will be minuscule, but with 13 other games to choose from, it’s not worth the risk of taking an unnecessary zero in your main build.
- COL/BOS looks similar to yesterday, where “showery” conditions could cause a delay. Most of the rain should be light enough to play through so they should complete this game, but I won’t be considering the pitchers here outside of GPPs.
- MIL/MIN and SFG/STL are today’s warmest games, with temps in the low 80s to high 70s and 5-10mph wind out to right in both.
- TOR/BAL, NYY/NYM, and CIN/KCR will be in the mid-70s and all will have wind blowing out. KC will be minimal with a 3-6mph breeze along with BAL, and it’s 5-8mph breeze, but NYM is looking at 10-13mph, so bump to the bats.
- CLE/SD, TB/OAK, and CHW/LAD will be in the 60s, with OAK seeing the most wind at 8-10mph out to right-center.
- Dome games today include PHI/ARI, MIA/SEA, WSH/HOU, and LAA/TEX.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Belt is going on the IL and Danny Jansen is coming off the IL for TOR. Kiermaier is also back in the lineup after missing some time.
- Henderson looks locked into the leadoff spot against righties, while Ryan Mountcastle was dealing with an illness over the weekend and has sat the last three games. He’s also been struggling at the plate, and Ryan O’Hearn has been excellent, so we could be looking at a platoon between the two at 1B for now.
- With Blackmon out indefinitely, we will see some movement in the COL lineup, as Tovar is hitting second against a righty and should be a regular in that spot. Nolan Jones is up to fifth in the order, while Moustakas will get the start at 1B and hit seventh.
- Boston is getting crowded with Duvall back, so against righties one of Duran, Verdugo, Yoshida, Duvall, Turner, or Casas will have to sit each game as there just aren’t enough spots at OF/DH/1B. With a 5.75 projected run total, this is an important lineup for DFS today, so keep an eye out for who sits today. (Update: Duran is the odd man out today). Kike Hernandez is also getting a breather so Reyes will play SS.
- Joey Gallo will return from the IL for MIN today, and Buxton is getting close to a return too, but I think it’ll be in a day or two.
- Mike Trout is getting a breather so Moniak will get a start, and Urshela remains out so Rengifo will start for him.
- Calhoun and Donaldson are getting days off for the Yankees, so Bauers will hit leadoff and LeMahieu will play 3B.
- Muncy is getting a day off for LAD, so Heyward will move up cleanup and is a top value play on all sites.
- The Rays are going with Beeks as an opener, so Oakland could put out a funky lineup to best counter alternating lefties and righties. The other late-game lineups should look pretty standard.
- LAD, LAA, and HOU are my top stacks today, and my cash game lineup will likely be mostly from those three offenses. BOS and TEX are other teams I like having exposure to if positions and salary are available, while PHI, CIN, TB, and KC are stacks I would definitely have exposure to in GPPs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- This might be the first time Max Scherzer ($9,400) is below the fifth most expensive SP on a main slate, as he’s eighth today. I like many of the SPs priced above him, but at this big of a discount, at home, against a Yankees lineup struggling to put up runs without Judge, Scherzer is my favorite SP for cash games. Cabrera ($8,800) and Flaherty ($8,300) are the only SPs cheaper than Scherzer I’d even consider for cash games if you desperately need the salary for bats. If you have the extra salary and aren’t sold on Scherzer, then Burnes ($10,200) or Brown ($10,000) would be my top two options.
- Alex Bregman ($3,100) is the first bat I’m locking into cash games, as I want Houston exposure against Corbin, and Bregman is just too cheap. He’s never struck out in 11 career ABs against Corbin and has just a 6.7% strikeout rate overall against lefties this year, so with a high likelihood he puts the ball in play multiple times today, I can’t fade him for this cheap on one of my top offenses to target. Jose Abreu ($2,600) is starting to turn it around with six hits and two HRs over his last four games, so he has a good chance of making my main build as well for more HOU value. Dubon ($2,900) is another solid value option likely hitting leadoff, while Altuve ($3,700) is who I’d go with to round out a full Houston stack.
- LAA/TEX is a game that I definitely want exposure to in cash games, especially some Angels bats who I think are way underpriced. Taylor Ward ($2,800) continues to mash with four games of 18.5+ FP in his last five, yet has remained below $3k since late April, so keep taking advantage of this mispricing, especially in a matchup with the platoon advantage. Mike Trout ($3,600) should also be at least $400 pricier and will continue to make my cash game lineup at this price, and even though Ohtani ($4,000) is in an L/L matchup today, he continues to be a cash game lock for me until he starts getting closer to $4.5k+ in price. Drury ($2,900), Rendon ($3,000), and Renfroe ($2,900) are all fine options to round out a full LAA stack. The top Texas bats are pricey, but if you can fit in Corey Seager ($4,400) he’d be my first target, followed by Nate Lowe ($3,300) for value. (Update: Trout is OUT today)
- The Dodgers are another team with a strong chance at a crooked number against Lynn tonight, and they have options at all price points for cash games. For super cheap, Jason Heyward ($2,600) and David Peralta ($2,400) are the top choices, especially Peralta with his .375 career average against Lynn in 16 ABs. If you can afford him then Freeman ($4,500) would me my top spend up option followed by Betts ($4,200).
- Trea Turner ($3,000) and JT Realmuto ($2,800) remain at fantastic prices for cheap PHI exposure, and I would definitely get exposure to Schwarber ($3,500) and Harper ($3,500) for a full stack in GPPs. From Boston, Justin Turner ($2,900) remains a great value bat, especially with the reverse splits of Anderson.
- I don’t love the matchup for Baltimore against Bassitt, but Gunnar Henderson ($3,000) is worth mentioning for value today as he has 3B and SS eligibility, should hit leadoff, and is on fire lately with four straight games of 21+ FP. He’s the only BAL bat I’d consider as a one-off for cash games, and if you do make a BAL stack in GPPs, Henderson is the first guy I’d include.
- More value bats I like today include Ryan McMahon ($3,200), Francisco Alvarez ($2,900), Francisco Lindor ($3,200), Nolan Arenado ($3,200), TJ Friedl ($2,900), Salvador Perez ($3,000), Bobby Witt ($3,300), Manny Machado ($2,800), Harold Ramirez ($3,100), and Esteury Ruiz ($3,100).
- Max Scherzer ($9,800) isn’t as much of a value as he is on FD, but as the fourth most expensive SP on DK, he’s still someone I want for cash games. SP2 is a tougher choice, as there are great value options in Lopez ($8,800), Flaherty ($8,000) and Musgrove ($7,800), while guys like Burnes ($9,900) and Brown ($10,500) are still pretty affordable. If I like my hitters enough, I will try to fit in Burnes as my SP2 with Scherzer, but if I need more salary, I will likely drop Burnes down to Lopez or Flaherty.
- Fitting two expensive SPs is going to take some value bats, and for under $4k there are a good amount to choose from. Taylor Ward ($3,500) is my top p/$ OF play of the slate and the best way to get cheap LAA exposure, while Jason Heyward ($2,500) and David Peralta ($2,700) are the best ways to get LAD exposure for cheap in cash games. Jose Abreu ($2,900) and Justin Turner ($3,400) are top p/$ plays at 1B, and one will almost certainly be in my cash game lineup, while teammates Dubon ($3,500) and Arroyo ($2,700) are in consideration if more salary savings are needed.
- Gunnar Henderson ($3,600) will be a popular play just based on his game log and his cheap salary, along with dual position eligibility. I’m going to try to fit in Alex Bregman ($4,600) and Elly De La Cruz ($4,700) at the 3B/SS positions, but if I need $1k in salary to fit the rest of the bats I want, I’ll likely drop Bregman to Henderson.
- Nolan Jones ($3,800) is a name to keep on your cash game radar today, as he’s swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball, hitting .361 over his last ten games. He has stolen base upside with four of those during that span. He also has a chance to hit higher in the order with Blackmon out, but assuming he hits at least sixth or higher, he will be hard to fade in main builds.
- Salvador Perez ($5,300) is expensive but the top cash game catcher if you can afford him, while Realmuto ($4,600) and Alvarez ($3,800) are great cheaper options if you need the salary. Esteury Ruiz ($3,400) remains cheap and is always in play in all formats given his immense SB upside, and I like using him in GPPs with an OAK stack as their entire projected lineup is $3.4k or cheaper, so you can make an elite team around them.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!