MLB DFS Slate Preview: Tuesday, June 27
Erik Wardenburg previews the Tuesday, June 27th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Massive 15-game main slate today with every team in play. The Dodgers begin a series in Coors Field, so they’re the obvious top offense. We have plenty of aces to choose from including Kevin Gausman against his former Giants and Shohei Ohtani in an excellent matchup with the White Sox.
Some big names are back from the IL, including Cron, Chisholm, and Muncy. Verdugo is back from the bereavement list, while Buxton is back in the Twins lineup after missing a couple games with a back injury.
Lots more to talk about and plenty of MLB DFS picks to get to so let’s build some lineups!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- CIN/BAL could see a late-start but should play fine eventually with temps in the 70s. Same story with SDP/PIT, with slightly cooler temps in the high 60s and a slight breeze out to left. MIL/NYM could see some rain for most of the game that may cause in-game issues, so I’d avoid pitchers here; temps in the low 70s with a right to left cross breeze.
- MIN/ATL is our best hitting weather with temps in the mid 80s and 6-11mph wind blowing out. LAD/COL, CLE/KCR & HOU/STL will all be in the 80s so another bump to Coors Field bats.
- MIA/BOS will be in the low 70s with 10mph wind out to left. PHI/CHC will be in the high 60s with 5-10mph wind blowing in. CHW/LAA will be in the mid 60s with a slight breeze out, and NYY/OAK is our coolest game with temps in the high 50s and 5-10mph wind blowing out.
- Dome games today include WSH/SEA, TBR/ARI, DET/TEX, and SFG/TOR.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Facing another lefty, I’d expect a similar Baltimore lineup as yesterday, although they could go with Henderson over someone after he sat yesterday.
- The Blue Jays are facing a righty opener and potentially the lefty Wood after, so they could go with a more righty-heavy lineup. I’d steer clear of Brandon Belt today if he does end up starting, as there’s a strong chance he gets pinch-hit for once a lefty arm comes in for SF.
- The Marlins will get both Chisholm and Segura back from the IL, and both are in the lineup today hitting cleanup and sixth, respectively.
- Alex Verdugo is back from the bereavement list hitting third, as Duran will hit leadoff. Yoshida is getting a day off along with Arroyo.
- Buxton is back at cleanup for the Twins, Sean Murphy will be back at catcher for the Braves after sitting yesterday.
- Jose Altuve remains out of the lineup for Houston, so Dubon will play 2B and hit leadoff.
- Jung and Taveras are getting breathers for TEX, so Josh Smith will play 3B and Jankowski will play CF.
- The Brewers are mixing things up a bit going with Blake Perkins at leadoff today against a lefty, with Miller down to fifth.
- Kyle Isbel is off the IL and back in the lineup for KC hitting fifth. Salvador Perez is getting a day off so Fermin will catch.
- Max Muncy is expected back in the lineup and should hit cleanup, and to get more lefties in the lineup, we could see Betts get a start at SS to fit in Peralta/Heyward/Outman in the OF. CJ Cron is back for the Rockies hitting fifth and DH-ing, so Alfaro will sit with Diaz catching and Montero at 1B.
- The Angels lineup against righties has been pretty volatile, as they have four regular OFs now and a plethora of people who can play most of the infield positions. Best guess is that Moniak sees regular starts at leadoff against righties, Renfroe/Moustakas get most of the 1B starts, and Escobar/Rengifo handle 3B. Trout and Thaiss are sitting today so Drury is up to third, Moustakas will hit cleanup and Wallach will catch.
- We’ll see if the Yankees stick with Torres at leadoff after moving Bauers down to fifth last game. I’m also curious if Esteury Ruiz hits ninth like he did last time the A’s faced a righty, with Kemp hitting leadoff.
- The Mariners moved Raleigh up to fifth yesterday and Kelenic down to seventh, so that will likely remain the same against righties for now.
- The Dodgers are the clear top stack today hitting in Coors Field with a projected run total just below 8, especially against a pitcher in Seabold coming off a 9 ER performance with 4 HR’s allowed. TEX and SDP are my next favorite stacks, while CLE, PHI, SEA, and NYM round out my top seven.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Coming off a 12 strikeout domination of the Dodgers, Shohei Ohtani ($10,800) is my favorite cash game SP at home against the White Sox, who have been one of the worst statistical teams against righty pitching this season. I know most people have given up on Sandy Alcantara ($8,400), but at this low of a salary, I’d make sure to have exposure to him somewhere as he’s going to put a vintage Cy Young game again this season. You can easily make a Dodgers heavy lineup with his low price.
- I’ll do my best to jam in Freeman ($4,600) and Betts ($4,500) in cash games, but if I can only afford one, I’d go with Betts today. Righties have hit over 25 points higher against Seabold this year than lefties, including an 11% higher hard-hit rate. This puts Smith ($4,100) and Martinez ($3,800) as top cash game options as well, so it is pretty tempting to go with a cheaper SP in cash games in order to fit 3-4 of these expensive LAD bats.
- Manny Machado ($3,300) remains too cheap for a clean-up hitter with the platoon advantage against a mediocre SP like Rich Hill. For more SD exposure, I like going with Ha-Seong Kim ($3,000) as he is hitting leadoff and has three HR’s over his last four games. Bogaerts ($3,200) and Sanchez ($2,900) are in play as well for more SD value options.
- Texas is an offense that I think breaks out today against Manning, and for value with the platoon advantage, I like Nate Lowe ($3,100) and Jonah Heim ($3,200) as cash game options. Martin Perez is a low strikeout SP that I don’t mind targeting bats against, so if you need some cheap one-off bats in your main build, I’d keep Baez ($2,700), Torkelson ($2,600), Vierling ($2,500), and Haase ($2,400) on your radar.
- I’m still not a believer in Julio Teheran being as good as he’s been this year, so I like having Mets stacks in GPPs. I’d even consider Francisco Lindor ($3,400) and Brandon Nimmo ($3,100) in cash games at great prices with the platoon advantage.
I like taking higher than 7.5 fantasy points for Lindor on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Ohtani ($11,300) remains cheap enough on DK to be considered the top cash game SP for me. Even though he’s in Coors, I still really like Clayton Kershaw ($9,700) today, especially for under $10k on DK. I think he has a similar ceiling as as a lot of the SPs in his price range, but a higher floor, so if you can stomach a SP in Coors Field, I’m actually leaning towards Ohtani/Kershaw in my main build. Sandy Alcantara ($7,900) remains one of my favorite GPP plays, and I’ll also include Ranger Suarez ($7,000), as he’s gone for over 20 FP in three straight starts.
- Stacking LAD bats in cash games is going to be really tough, especially if you go with a $10k+ SP. I still prefer Betts ($6,400) as the top spend up, and we do have Peralta ($3,500) and Heyward ($3,100) as excellent value options. I’d make sure to have a full LAD stack in some GPP at least with two cheap SPs, as they have one of the highest team totals of the year today.
- Jordan Westburg ($2,000) had a solid debut yesterday going for 9 FP, and with him still at minimum price with the platoon advantage, I’d consider him a top p/$ value of the slate who will really help you fit in an expensive LAD bat or two. Hays ($3,500), Hicks ($2,400), and Urias ($2,700) all remain strong value options as well.
- Kim ($4,200) and Sanchez ($4,200) are my favorite ways to get SD exposure in cash games, while Lowe ($4,200) and Heim ($4,000) remain the best values from TEX. Matt Vierling ($2,500) is really standing out as a top OF value option assuming he hits leadoff again, while Ibanez ($2,200) and Haase ($2,800) have to be in cash game consideration as well with those prices and the platoon advantage.
- France ($3,400), Crawford ($3,100), and Hernandez ($3,600) are a very affordable stack to get SEA exposure. I also think Julio Rodriguez ($5,100) is too cheap, so I don’t mind going with him as a cash game OF. Nimmo ($4,000), Marte ($3,700), Lindor ($4,800), and Alonso ($5,200) are all pretty affordable either as a full stack or one-offs in cash games, and Vogelbach ($2,500) is a decent 1B punt option.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!