MLB DFS Slate Preview: Tuesday, May 16
Erik Wardenburg previews the Tuesday, May 16th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Just like yesterday, we have a huge main slate full of big team totals and great weather everywhere. Half of the 24 teams on the slate have projected run totals of 4.5 or higher, with six currently at 5+.
Coors Field could go bonkers today as we have a rookie with a 6.62 ERA in AAA making his MLB debut, along with journeyman Chase Anderson with a career 4.23 ERA. Anderson also has heavy reverse splits with a .277 average allowed to righties compared to just .219 to lefties over his career, which plays well for the Reds as their projected lineup has seven righties.
There are lots of top pitchers to choose from today and other great offenses to target away from Coors. Let’s get to some MLB DFS picks and the news & notes for today!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- CIN/COL is similar to yesterday as there could be some light rain, but not enough to cause the game not to be played in full. Temps in the mid-60s with 5-10mph wind blowing in there.
- SEA/BOS, TBR/NYM, and CLE/CHW will all see 10-15mph wind blowing out, along with 70+ degree temps at first pitch, making them the clear top hitting environments of the slate along with Coors Field.
- MIL/STL will also be nice for bats with temps in the high 60s, 60-70% humidity, and a slight breeze blowing left to right. KCR/SDP, ARI/OAK, PHI/SFG, and MIN/LAD will all be in the mid to low 60s.
- Today’s dome games are CHC/HOU, ATL/TEX, and NYY/TOR.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Jose Ramirez went on the bereavement list so he’ll be out a few days for CLE. Arias will get the start at 3B for him today.
- Anthony Rizzo is getting a day off, so Bader will move up to third in the lineup and LeMahieu will play 1B. Torres is back at leadoff and Bauers is down to fifth.
- Duran got a spot start at leadoff yesterday with Yoshida out, but will go back to fifth in the order today. Hernandez is dealing with a hamstring issue, so Pablo Reyes will continue to start at SS.
- Yandy Diaz had to go for an MRI on his groin injury, and although they got good news, he’ll miss today and likely more time. Harold Ramirez will move to leadoff and play 1B today.
- Christian Yelich was removed for precautionary reasons yesterday with back tightness, and against a lefty today he will get a day off if not longer. Luke Voit landed on the IL with a neck issue and Darin Ruf was signed to MIL. Ruf will crack the lineup right away against Montgomery today hitting fifth.
- Carlson remains out for STL, and they will also sit Yepez against a lefty. Nootbaar remains at leadoff while Gorman will get a rare start vs. a lefty.
- Cody Bellinger left early yesterday after hurting his knee on a great catch, and he will be out at least for today. Morel will hit third with Madrigal at leadoff, and Mastrobuoni will start at 2B and hit seventh.
- With Cron on the IL and a lefty on the mound, switch-hitting Michael Toglia will start at 1B hitting sixth for COL. Bryant and McMahon are getting days off, so Doyle will remain in the lineup and Moustakas will start at 3B. Friedl is on the IL for CIN, so McLain will likely remain in the 2-hole after a great debut yesterday.
- Manny Machado was hit by a pitch on the back of his hand yesterday and was eventually removed from the game. X-rays came back negative, but there’s a good chance he gets a game or two off, and Kim would handle 3B if so.
- Joc Pederson went on the IL yesterday, so Conforto will move to the cleanup spot against righties. Yastrzemski is off the IL and batting sixth tonight.
- Luis Robert and Andrew Vaughn will swap spots in the order with Robert moving to third and Vaughn down to fifth. Grandal is back in the lineup at C after missing some time.
- COL and CIN are by far my favorite stacks today, as both lineups are way underpriced given the 12.5 run game total. Outside of Coors, Seattle is my favorite stack sitting on a 5.5+ run total against Pivetta in great-hitting weather. Pivetta has allowed 3-7 ER and at least 1 HR in each of his last five starts, and the Mariners bats are hot right now, averaging 6.75 runs over their last four games. Speaking of hot bats, Atlanta went nuts yesterday hitting 5 HRs leading to a 12-0 win, and they definitely remain a top stack today against the low strikeout SP Dunning. TEX, TOR, STL, SD, and ARI are other top stacks I want exposure to today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Right now I’m between Kershaw ($11,400), Javier ($10,000), Wheeler ($9,400), and Montgomery ($8,600) for cash game SP, as all have huge upside and solid matchups. The Brewers are one of the worst teams against lefties so Montgomery might be where I go so I can fit in more expensive bats, although Kershaw and Javier probably have the highest floors and may be worth the extra salary if there’s enough value bats out there. Wheeler is someone I will go overweight on in GPPs regardless if he ends up as my cash game SP. Gausman, Castillo, Lynn, and Bieber are other SPs I like for a GPP pool.
- I’m going to be getting as much CIN/COL exposure as possible in cash games, as these two SPs just have too much blow-up potential and both teams’ projected lineups have just one bat above $3,500. There’s enough other great offenses in play today that I’m hoping Coors Field isn’t massively chalky, but even so, the upside is just too high here to fade for me outside of GPPs. Matt McLain ($2,000) wasn’t available on FD yesterday but is there today at minimum price and is the first bat I’m locking in. Tyler Stephenson ($3,100) is my next favorite p/$ CIN bat, followed by Steer ($3,400) and Fraley ($3,400). Randal Grichuk ($3,600) is my top COL target, followed by Diaz ($3,200), Profar ($3,400), Doyle ($3,000), and Toglia ($3,000).
- If you don’t want to go full Coors Field in cash games, then Seattle is where I’d pivot to first. They are egregiously under-priced today as Julio Rodriguez ($3,500) is their only projected bat above $3.1k today. Jarred Kelenic ($3,100) and Cal Raleigh ($2,900) are my top targets with the platoon advantage on Pivetta, followed by Crawford ($2,800), Suarez ($2,800), and Hernandez ($2,800). I like taking higher 8.5 fantasy points for Kelenic on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- STL is another offense that could erupt again after going for 18 runs yesterday, so if you need to fill one or two spots in your main build or want a cheap GPP stack, I love the prices of Tommy Edman ($2,900), Willson Contreras ($2,900), Nolan Arenado ($3,000), and Juan Yepez ($2,200). Arizona is similar as they are in a great spot to put up a crooked number against a mediocre lefty, and are full of value bats like Ketel Marte ($3,100), Emmanuel Rivera ($2,700), Lourdes Gurriel ($3,200), and Christian Walker ($3,500).
- More value bats I like today include George Springer ($2,800), Daulton Varsho ($3,000), Austin Riley ($2,900), Andres Gimenez ($2,800), Starling Marte ($2,700), Eddie Rosario ($2,500), Ezequiel Duran ($2,900), and Jake Cronenworth ($2,800).
- Jordan Montgomery ($7,400) is just too cheap, given how bad MIL has been against lefties, and he will be one of my cash game SPs. Right now I’m finding it easy to pay up for Kershaw ($11,000), but if you need salary for bats I have no issues dropping down to Javier ($9,600), Wheeler ($9,200), or even Bieber ($9,000).
- Matt McLain ($2,000) remains my top p/$ bat of the slate, and Spencer Steer ($3,500) is right behind him as a cash game lock for me. Diaz ($4,300), Grichuk ($4,100), Profar ($3,900), and Doyle ($2,900) are my top COL bats to target on DK.
- At 3B, I’m loving the salary of Emmanuel Rivera ($3,000) for cheap exposure to a projected high-scoring AZ offense today. If you have the extra salary then Nolan Arenado ($4,900) would be my top choice after him at 3B.
- Eddie Rosario ($2,700) and Ezequiel Duran ($3,300) are top-value options from ATL/TEX, and from STL Juan Yepez ($3,100) and Paul DeJong ($2,800) are crazy cheap if you want exposure there.
- JP Crawford ($3,300), Jarred Kelenic ($4,700), and Cal Raleigh ($4,200) are my favorite plays from SEA, while Springer ($4,400) and Varsho ($4,100) remain at great salaries if you want some TOR exposure.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!