MLB DFS Slate Preview: Tuesday, May 2
Erik Wardenburg previews the Tuesday, May 2nd slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
A huge 12 game slate today with some big lineup news, as Bryce Harper will make his 2023 debut. Tim Anderson will also return from his knee injury and give a much needed boost to the White Sox offense, while the Yankees are going to have to figure out ways to score without Judge as he landed on the IL yesterday.
Coors Field is back in play, as the Rockies host the Brewers for a three game series, and right now Milwaukee has a 6+ run total and are the clear highest upside stack of the slate. Plenty of other great offenses to target and some nice pitching options at all price ranges, so let’s get to the news, notes and MLB DFS picks for today!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- MIL/COL and SEA/OAK will see the most potential rain, but neither are in danger of being PPD as they should both play fine after a late-start if needed.
- CHC/WSH and TOR/BOS will have some light rain early and a late start isn’t out of the question for either. Both games should eventually play fine in low 50 degree temps and 10mph wind blowing out.
- CLE/NYY will see a sprinkle at worst and play fine with 10mph wind out to left center. MIN/CHW and LAA/STL will see the most wind at 15-20mph out to right for CHW and left to right for STL.
- BAL/KC, CIN/SD, and PHI/LAD will be in the mid 50s, and today’s dome games are SF/HOU and ARI/TEX.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are more likely to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Bryce Harper will make his 2023 debut for Philly and DH tonight, likely hitting third or possibly fifth.
- Tim Anderson will come off the IL for the White Sox and get his leadoff spot back, which moves Benintendi to the 2-hole. Luis Robert is dropping down to 5th while Vaughn is up to 3rd in the order.
- Aaron Judge officially went on the IL yesterday, while Bauers avoided the IL but will likely still need some time off. Harrison Bader is off the IL and will start in CF batting fifth.
- Springer was a late-scratch yesterday with an illness but is back in the lineup at leadoff tonight. I’d consider Rodriguez and France questionable for the Mariners, as both missed last game with back tightness and an illness respectively.
- Yastrzemski and Crawford landed on the IL for SF yesterday, so Estrada will get most of the SS starts, while Sabol, Wisely, and Stevenson will help at OF more. Haniger and Davis are getting days off today, so Stevenson and Flores will start for them.
- The Angels like Neto as their leadoff hitter now, so look for him to continue to hit there, while Taylor Ward will hit 6th today. Ohtani is getting a day off and Renfore will move up to 3rd in the order.
- Corbin Carroll is still out with his knee injury and AZ promoted outfielder Dominic Fletcher, who will start today and hit 6th. Pavin Smith will move up to 3rd.
- Wil Myers won’t play in this series with SD, so Steer will start at 1B today. Stephenson is getting a day off so Fairchild will hit cleanup and Casali will catch. For LAD, I’m expecting Miguel Rojas to start at SS after he came off the IL yesterday and faces a lefty today.
- Nicky Lopez is going on the IL with appendicitis, so Maikel Garcia will come up and start at 3B tonight hitting eighth.
- Blackmon is getting a day off for COL, so Profar will move to leadoff and Doyle is back in the lineup.
- The Brewers are the clear top stack of the slate sitting at a 6+ run total hitting in Coors Field. Their opponent Feltner has been solid over his last couple starts with 0 ER and 12 total strikeouts, but those were away from Coors. Against a tough MIL lineup that hits righties well, I think Feltner comes back down to earth and sees an early exit today. TOR and MIN are two stacks I like a lot today, as they both face mediocre righties and currently have team totals above five. MIN is especially cheap on FD and my top “value stack” of the slate hitting in 15-20 mph blowing out to right. CHC, BAL, STL, and SDP are more stacks I’d make sure to have exposure to in GPPs today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- We have some fantastic SP options today, starting with Gerrit Cole ($11,500), who faces CLE and their currently lowest projected team total of the slate at 3.3 runs. Cole always has slate-winning upside and a very solid floor, but he is facing a tough rookie in Bibee so run support behind him could be limited. Cole did struggle in his last start against CLE allowing 2 ER with just 3 strikeouts. If you’re spending at SP, I prefer going with Zac Gallen ($11,800), who is arguably the best pitcher in baseball currently with 11+ strikeouts in three of his last four starts and zero ER over his last four starts.
- If you want to go cheaper at SP, then I’d go with either Tanner Bibee ($8,400), Michael Wacha ($7,000), or Hayden Wesneski ($6,600). Mason Miller ($7,500) is one of my favorite GPP plays, especially if Julio remains out for Seattle.
- Christian Yelich ($3,500) is the headliner bat of the slate, as he’s just a bit too cheap hitting leadoff in Coors Field, and will likely be one of the highest-owned players of the slate. Willy Adames ($3,700), Rowdy Tellez ($3,800), and Williams Contreras (3,500) would be my next targets for a full MIL stack, while Jesse Winker ($3,100) is super cheap and a great value option from MIL if you need the savings.
- Byron Buxton ($3,500) remains too cheap, as he’s gone for 24+ FP in four of his last five starts, and will be close to $4k very soon. Kepler ($2,700), Polanco ($3,300), and Correa ($3,000) make for an excellent value stack hitting in 15-20 mph blowing out. I will likely have at least 2-3 Twins in my main build.
- George Springer ($3,100) and Daulton Varsho ($2,800) remain underpriced for TOR, and are my favorite way to get exposure to a top projected offense today. The Cubs also offer some great value options in Swanson ($3,100), Happ ($3,000), and Suzuki ($2,900) against the very mediocre Trevor Williams.
- Austin Hays ($3,100) and Ramon Urias ($2,600) are solid p/$ options from BAL with the platoon advantage, and more cheap bats I like with the platoon advantage today include Zach Neto ($2,400), Anthony Rendon ($2,800), Nolan Arenado ($2,900), Willson Contreras ($3,000), Tyler O’Neill ($2,600), Juan Soto ($3,400), and Jake Cronenworth ($2,900).
- The Astros are another offense I like today that offer some excellent value in Alex Bregman ($2,900), Mauricio Dubon ($2,800), Jose Abreu ($2,500), and Kyle Tucker ($3,500).
- Zac Gallen ($10,000) remains my SP1 on DK, especially since he’s $1,500 cheaper than Cole with just as much upside. Cole’s opponent Tanner Bibee ($6,500) is actually looking like a top cash game play at that cheap of a price, as he dominated in his debut and should put up a solid line against a Judge-less Yankees lineup. Hayden Wesneski ($5,300) is one of my favorite GPP plays of the slate, while Bryce Miller ($4,000) and Mason Miller ($5,700) are both high-upside cheap SP’s facing each other that I would definitely recommend having exposure to in GPPs.
- Rowdy Tellez ($4,800) and William Contreras ($4,600) are who I’m starting my cash game lineup with, while Brice Turang ($2,700) will likely be my 2B at that cheap of a price in Coors. I’ll do my best to fit in Yelich ($5,500) and/or Adames ($5,900) as well, but Adames will be the guy I move away from first if I need the salary.
- Max Kepler ($3,700) is my top p/$ play from the Twins, and Daulton Varsho ($4,000) dropped $300 in price overnight and is my favorite way to get TOR exposure in cash games.
- Cody Bellinger ($4,000) is really standing out as a top cash game bat, as his price continues to creep up just $100 or so every day, and he continues to absolutely rake. Bellinger has one game under 10 FP in his last eight, and his added upside of a stolen base here and there along with his elite HR upside give him a huge ceiling at a great price today. Check out our Underdog Fantasy bonus code for new signups, where I like taking higher 2.0 hits+runs+rbis for Bellinger today.
- Ramon Urias ($3,300) is a top value option at the 2B/3B positions from BAL, while Zach Neto ($2,700) remains a top value option at the SS spot assuming he continues to hit leadoff. Nick Senzel ($2,700) is another value bat I love today that can be used at either 3B or OF, as he draws a matchup against the reverse splits Wacha. Senzel is raking at the dish with three HR’s over his last five games, and the stat I love most is that he has only struck out once in his last six games.
- If you need another value OF then I’d look at Esteury Ruiz ($3,300), as he remains way too cheap as the highest-upside stolen base threat in the league. Ruiz has no extra base hits over his last five games yet has gone for 9+ FP in four of those games. He provides a very strong floor if he can get on base just one time, while his ceiling is arguably as high as anyone today if he gets on base multiple times as he can legit steal 4+ bases any game.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!