MLB DFS Slate Preview: Tuesday, May 23
Erik Wardenburg previews the Tuesday, May 23rd slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Big 10-game main slate today that will see the MLB debut of Dodgers SP Bobby Miller in a rough matchup with ATL and Strider. Eury Perez will look to continue the great start to his career, with just 3 ER and 13 strikeouts over his first two starts, although Coors Field will be a big test. Brayan Bello is another young SP on a great streak, with four straight starts of 5+ innings, 2 or less ER, and 5+ strikeouts. Cole and Strider are the top aces going today, although there are plenty of other strong SP options. If you’re feeling a bit riskier, Marco Gonzales is in a solid bounce back spot against Oakland coming off his worst start of the year.
The Marlins should be the most popular offense in Coors against the lefty Gomber. Meanwhile the Mariners, Astros, and Braves are some other offenses I’m looking to go heavy on. As always with big slates, there’s a bunch of other strong MLB DFS picks to talk about, along with some news and notes for today so let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- SF/MIN & DET/KC are today’s warmest games, with temps in low 80s to high 70s. BAL/NYY & BOS/LAA are the coolest game with temps in the low 60s.
- SD/WSH, LAD/ATL, NYM/CHC, and MIA/COL will all be in the low 70s to mid 60s. Wind shouldn’t be much of a factor today as the strongest is 5-10mph blowing in for BAL/NYY, with most games seeing small breezes either blowing in or across the field.
- The dome games today are HOU/MIL & OAK/SEA.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- The Royals are sticking with Nick Pratto at leadoff even against a lefty, while Bobby Witt will hit cleanup after hitting sixth yesterday. KC is also going with five lefties against Rodriguez, who has allowed just a .105 average to lefties this season, so big bump to E-Rod today.
- Jean Segura returned to the Miami lineup yesterday but Berti remained at leadoff, so I’d expect Berti to leadoff against the lefty Gomber today. The Marlins could go with a full righty lineup if they wanted to, although if Arraez remains in there it would likely take Hampson or Burdick out.
- Kris Bryant is getting a day off, so Grichuk and Doyle will both start. Trevor Larnach is going on the IL, so Castro and Wallner will get his starts against righties.
- Mickey Moniak to continues to produce when given starts for LAA, and yesterday he went 2 for 4 with a HR. I’d expect him to be right back in there at leadoff today, which would keep Ward on the bench unless they give a different OF a day off.
- Jordan Diaz was sent down to AAA after Seth Brown was activated off IR yesterday, so either Peterson or Kemp will have to start against the lefty Gonzales with Aledmys Diaz playing either 2B or 3B.
- The Mets are sitting McNeil, so Escobar will play 2B and hit second today. Mark Vientos is up to fifth in the order at DH, and with Baty in the lineup at 3B Canha will get the day off as Pham is playing LF. Morel is up to fifth in the order for the Cubs, and Tauchman will get another start in CF and hit sixth.
- Miami disappointed yesterday scoring only three runs, but they remain my top stack today, especially with some potential lower ownership after recency bias will move people off of them a bit. The Rockies still have a projected run total above 5, but Eury Perez has been very strong. I’m not super high on COL as a stack in cash games, although I will definitely have plenty of exposure in GPPs. Luis Medina has allowed 13 ER over his last three starts including 5 HRs, so Seattle is my second favorite stack today, especially as their bats are starting to heat up. The Astros are my third favorite stack against the very mediocre Rea, while ATL and NYY round out my top five stacks.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- I’m expecting most cash game lineups to have either Strider ($11,500) or Cole ($11,100), as both have elite ceilings against anyone. Gray ($10,200) and Rodriguez ($10,600) are my favorite SPs in the next price tier, and for super cheap I’m strongly considering Marco Gonzales ($6,800) in my main build. Gonzales has shown some upside this year with a couple 35+ FP games, but he also has a very low floor evidenced by his last start of -16 FP. Today’s matchup with Oakland is as good of a bounce back spot as any, and if he can get you 25+ FP at this low of a salary, then you should be able to have an extremely stacked hitter lineup. If you want the floor safety, then Cole would be my pick, as Baltimore has the lowest projected run total of the slate just behind Oakland.
- Jorge Soler ($3,500) dropped $200 overnight, so I will be right back on him today even after an 0 for 4 game yesterday. He just has too much upside with the platoon advantage in Coors Field. Bryan De La Cruz ($3,400) did not disappoint yesterday going 4 for 4, and he remains at a great price for more Miami exposure in cash games. Berti ($3,100) and Cooper ($3,200) make for a great cheap full stack.
- Seattle is where I’m going next, as their whole lineup remains underpriced. The combo of Julio Rodriguez ($3,400) and Jarred Kelenic ($3,300) has as much upside as any 3-4 hitter stack today, as both have big HR and SB upside and are coming off monster games. France ($2,800), Suarez ($2,900) or Raleigh ($3,200) are where I’d look to next if you want more cheap SEA exposure in cash games.
- Yordan Alvarez ($4,300) is probably the top overall bat of the slate as far as pure upside, and he should be very easy to fit in if you go with Gonzales as your cash game SP. If you want cheaper HOU exposure, then Altuve ($3,200), Bregman ($3,100), Tucker ($3,300), and Abreu ($2,400) remain a fantastic value stack, and I will be looking to use at least a couple of them in my main build.
- More cheap value bats I like today include Gleyber Torres ($3,200), Anthony Rizzo ($3,300), Austin Riley ($2,900), Eddie Rosario ($2,500), Zack McKinstry ($2,500), Javier Baez ($2,900), Spencer Torkelson ($2,800), Mickey Moniak ($2,000), Mark Vientos ($2,600), and Rowdy Tellez ($2,800).
- Brayan Bello ($6,300) is my top p/$ SP on DK, as he’s $2.2k cheaper than FD and will allow you to fit a lot of top bats in your main build. Bello has allowed 2 or less ER in four straight starts, and that included games against tough offenses like SEA, ATL, TOR, and CLE. Pairing Bello with Marco Gonzales ($6,700) will make picking hitters really fun as you can have a top bat at almost every position. For a bit more salary and safety, I’m liking Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,800) against KC. E-Rod will be looking to bounce back after a rough last start, and at an $1,800 price discount to FD, I think he’s just a bit too cheap to fade against KC, especially with the 30+ FP he’s shown in three of his last six starts against tougher opponents.
- Bryan De La Cruz ($3,800) only went up $100 overnight after going for 16 FP yesterday, and even at high ownership, he is my top p/$ cash game bat of the slate. Nick Fortes ($2,900) should draw the start at catcher for Miami, and assuming he hits either 5th or 6th, I’d consider him the top p/$ cash game catcher of the slate. Soler ($5,400) is expensive but remains a huge upside play, while Gurriel ($3,300) and Segura ($3,400) are solid value options for more MIA exposure. I like taking higher than 1.5 total bases for De La Cruz on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Jarred Kelenic only went up $200 after going for 28 FP yesterday, and with three straight games of 10+ FP and five straight games of 7+ FP, Kelenic remains too cheap hitting cleanup on my second favorite offense of the slate. Ty France ($4,200) broke out of his mini-slump with 14 FP yesterday and is a solid play at 1B. Julio Rodriguez ($5,600) is a nice fill-in hitting between France and Kelenic for a bigger stack.
- Eddie Rosario ($2,300) dropped $200 overnight even after going for 23 FP yesterday, and hitting fifth on a top five projected scoring offense of the slate has him squarely in play as a top p/$ cash game bat. Nick Maton ($2,700), Spencer Torkelson ($3,000), and Akil Baddoo ($2,600) make for a decent mini value stack from DET who have a pretty healthy 4.86 run total today.
- Other value options to consider include Mickey Moniak ($2,900), Jared Walsh ($2,400), Tommy Pham ($2,200), Jose Abreu ($2,900), Alex Kirilloff ($3,500), Mark Vientos ($2,600), and Triston Casas ($2,700).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!