MLB DFS Slate Preview: Tuesday, May 30
Erik Wardenburg previews the Tuesday, May 30th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
After a smaller main slate yesterday, we’re back with a huge 13-game main slate today, starting at the usual 7:05PM EST time.
Gallen has struggled his last two starts, but gets a great bounce-back opportunity at home against the Rockies. Elder wins the “whoever is pitching against Oakland” lottery and will be squarely in play. McClanahan and Ryan round out the top tier SP options today, with Gilbert, Cortes, Senga, and Bello just below them as second tier targets for me.
Plenty of more SPs to talk about along with news, notes, and MLB DFS hitter picks so let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Great weather all around the league today, with no rain to worry about anywhere. The last three games of the night will see the most wind, all with around 10mph blowing out. Wrigley will see around 4-8mph wind blowing in.
- KCR/STL is by far the hottest game today, with temps in the mid 80s to high 70s. CLE/BAL and LAA/CHW are the next warmest with temps in the low 70s.
- CIN/BOS, PHI/NYM, and TBR/CHC will all be in the 60s, while ATL/OAK, PIT/SFG, and WSH/LAD will be in the high 50s.
- Today’s dome games are MIL/TOR, MIN/HOU, NYY/SEA, and COL/ARI.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Mullins hurt his groin yesterday and will require an IL stint. We will see a new leadoff hitter against righties for BAL now, and Adam Frazier seems like a good candidate to fill that role. This will also give more starts to Vavra and O’Hearn against righties, and Baltimore also signed Aaron Hicks to help in the OF.
- With Adames on the concussion IL and a lefty on the mound for Toronto, we could see Monasterio get his first start at SS for Milwaukee. If not, look for Turang to get the start there, while Miller and Ruf should continue to hit high in the order. Kiermaier remains out for TOR with his back injury, so Biggio will start again hitting ninth.
- Francisco Alvarez will continue to hit second against against another lefty today after he was moved there over the weekend. McNeil is back in the lineup after getting a day off over the weekend, while Escobar and Vientos will handle 3B and DH.
- Nootbaar left early yesterday with back spasms, and will get at least today off. Brendan Donovan will move up to leadoff spot, and Yepez will join the lineup at DH hitting eighth.
- Buxton will be back in there after getting yesterday off, and I’d expect Royce Lewis to be the regular 3B starter with Farmer getting sporadic starts now.
- Harrison Bader hurt his hamstring yesterday and will likely be out a while. Bauers, Kiner-Falefa, and Cabrera will all get his playing time, with the former two likely getting most of the starts. Rizzo remains out of the lineups, while Jose Trevino is back from the IL.
- Blackmon went on the bereavement list yesterday, so look for Profar to be the leadoff man for now. This also allows Grichuk and Doyle to start together more often, and I’d expect Nolan Jones to be back in at 1B after Moustakas started there yesterday.
- It’s been over a week since the Braves faced a lefty, so we’ll see who gets the start over Rosario, who will almost certainly sit. For now, I’m expecting Kevin Pillar to start, but they could go with Culberson or d’Arnaud and shuffle the DH/LF positions around.
- Verdugo is getting a day off for Boston, so Raimel Tapia will hit leadoff and play RF.
- Bryce Harper is getting a day off for Philly, so everyone will move up a spot in the order and Guthrie will join the lineup hitting ninth.
- Yandy Diaz is getting a day off for TB, so Josh Lowe will hit leadoff and Raley will handle 1B.
- Kelenic and Raleigh are off today for Seattle, but AJ Pollock is back in the lineup after missing some time with a leg injury. Murphy will catch and Haggerty will DH.
- Carlos Santana may need another day off with his back injury, and if so Connor Joe should get another start at 1B. We’ll see if Marcano stays at leadoff against a righty opener for SF.
- Max Muncy is back in the lineup for LAD after sitting yesterday with hamstring soreness. Smith and Vargas are getting days off, so Betts will play 2B and Barnes will catch.
- There are no shortage of top stacks today, as six teams currently have a projected run total above 5. The Dodgers lead the way with a team total just above 6, and are my top stack of the night. Toronto doesn’t have a top-five projected run total currently, but they are still my second favorite stack today at home against the low strikeout righty Houser. Arizona and Atlanta are my next favorite stacks both facing mediocre lefties, followed by Boston and St. Louis. Lower-owned stacks I like for GPPs are BAL, CHW, NYM, TBR, and SFG.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Shane McClanahan ($11,200) is the most expensive SP, but for good reason. He is, in my opinion, the highest upside cash game pitcher of the slate. He’s pitching in good conditions with the wind blowing in at Wrigley, against a Cubs team that’s scored more than five runs just once in their last nine games, and currently have one of the lowest team totals of the slate. If you need a little extra salary for bats, then I don’t mind dropping to either Gallen ($10,700) or Elder ($10,400), as their opponents have two of three lowest projected run totals of the slate (COL & OAK). For a lot cheaper, Bello ($8,600) is a high-upside option and someone I like going overweight on in GPPs.
- I said the Dodgers were my top stack of the slate, but for cash games, it’s going to be hard to do a full stack with an expensive SP, as their top five bats are all $3,700 or higher. Irvin has been a slightly reverse splits pitcher this year, so Mookie Betts ($3,900) would be my first choice, followed by Freeman ($4,300) and Muncy ($3,700). JD Martinez ($3,800) has been one of the hottest bats in baseball this month, so if you have the extra salary, by all means get him in there too. I like taking higher than 10.5 fantasy points for Betts on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- JP Sears has also been a reverse splits pitcher this year, as he’s allowing a .300 average to lefties compared to just .226 to righties. I still like the Braves as a full stack in GPPs, but for cash games, I’d lean towards targeting Matt Olson ($4,000). He’s on one of his HR rampages with three over his last two games. Austin Riley ($3,200) remains too cheap and is a solid 3B value option too.
- Kyle Freeland has not been a reverse splits pitcher this year, as he’s allowing righties to hit 40 points higher than lefties, and all 8 of his HR’s allowed have been to righties. Arizona is a top offense to target tonight and have some great value options, starting with Ketel Marte ($3,000) and Emmanuel Rivera ($2,700), who should hit at the top of the order. Gurriel ($3,500) and Walker ($3,300) are solid targets as well if you want a full stack. Meanwhile Longoria ($2,700) and Moreno ($2,600) are other value bats to consider with the platoon advantage.
- I have to single out Royce Lewis ($2,000) as a top p/$ bat of the slate, as someone with his talent should never be minimum price, especially after going 2 for 5 with an HR and four RBI in his season debut yesterday. If he was facing an elite SP, then I’d consider fading him in cash games, but against Bielak, I will be all over Lewis until he starts being priced correctly.
- The White Sox are another offense I like to put up some runs today against the low strikeout lefty Anderson, and they are full of value bats. Luis Robert ($3,500) is their only projected bat above $3.1k, so if you need some one-off cheap bats to fill out your main build, I’d consider him, Anderson ($2,800), Jimenez ($3,000), Moncada ($2,900), or Vaughn ($3,000).
- With Donovan ($2,700) hitting leadoff today, I’d consider him a great cash game target now. Also at leadoff, we have George Springer ($3,100), who is going to see a big price increase sooner rather than later, so keep taking advantage of his crazy low salaries. Raimel Tapia ($2,500) is another solid leadoff bat if you need more OF value.
- McClanahan ($11,400) remains my SP1 on DK, and I like pairing him in cash games with Brayan Bello ($7,000) who is still way too cheap.
- Royce Lewis ($2,000) is still minimum price, so he is by far my top p/$ cash game bat of the slate on DK. Francisco Alvarez ($3,100) also didn’t see a price increase, and with him likely hitting second today, he will be my cash game catcher pretty much any slate he’s hitting that high in the order for under $4k.
- Emmanuel Rivera ($2,900) is my top p/$ 3B for cash games, as he’s around $2k cheaper than the other top Arizona bats, and is crushing it at the plate lately going 7 for his last 17 with just 1 strikeout in that span.
- Eloy Jimenez ($3,200) is my top p/$ OF target, as his price dropped $400 from last game even after consecutive 15+ FP games since returning from the IL. Likely hitting second with the platoon advantage at a salary about $1k too cheap puts him in close to must play territory for me in cash games. Andrew Vaughn ($3,400) is also standing out as a top value option from the White Sox.
- If Adam Frazier ($2,700) does end up hitting leadoff for Baltimore he will be a top value bat at 2B to consider, and I also really like the price of Owen Miller ($3,000) who should hit in the top four spots today against the lefty Kikuchi. Raimel Tapia ($2,200) is hitting leadoff for Boston today and is a great extreme salary saver option.
- Brendan Donovan ($2,800) is my top p/$ target from STL with confirmation he’ll hit leadoff today, while Edouard Julien ($2,700) and Alex Kirilloff ($3,200) are more top value bats to consider and make a strong value stack with Lewis for the Twins.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!