MLB DFS Slate Preview: Wednesday, April 12
Erik Wardenburg previews the Wednesday, April 12th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Six games on today’s main slate with great weather everywhere, and I’m especially excited for Hunter Greene vs. Spencer Strider as the radar gun may break by the 5th inning. We also have another fun pitching matchup in Chris Sale vs. Taj Bradley, as Sale faces the hottest team in baseball, while Bradley will be making his MLB debut against a tough BOS lineup.
A big injury for the Rangers last night will see a new bat in their 2-hole, while the Orioles and Mountcastle (9 RBIs yesterday!) will look to put up another crooked number at home, so let’s get to the notes for today along with some MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can get a better idea if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Only three outdoor games on the main slate today, with OAK/BAL & CIN/ATL being the warmest in the mid-70s, while LAD/SF will be in the high 50s.
- SF will see its usual 15+ mph wind blowing out. BAL will have a 6-11 mph breeze blowing towards right. ATL will have a small 5mph breeze blowing in from left.
- BOS/TBR, DET/TOR, and KC/TEX are the dome games today, although the latter two stadiums will have the roof open.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Corey Seager was grabbing at his hamstring on a double yesterday and immediately left the game, so he will head to the IL and be out indefinitely. Semien, Smith, and Duran can all play SS and 2B, so we should see more of the latter two getting consistent starts with Seager out. Texas could slide everyone up in the order, but if they want to keep Lowe and Garcia in the 3 and 4 hole, I’d expect Josh Smith to move up to Seager’s 2-hole spot.
- Baltimore changed their order around a bit against the lefty Sears yesterday, and it paid off handsomely as they put up 12 runs. They’re going with a similar lineup tonight with Hays at leadoff again, while McCann will hit cleanup for Santander who is getting a day off. McKenna will hit 9th as Mullins will also get a game off.
- Boston should have a pretty standard lineup today, with Raimel Tapia likely starting for Duvall, who’s on the IL. Yoshida was scratched with a hamstring issue, so Dalbec will be in the lineup at SS with Hernandez moving to CF. Tampa will go righty heavy against Sale, and with Siri on the IL we’ll see Brujan start again.
- The Braves will stick with Rosario hitting 5th and Albies 6th like they did yesterday, and SF will go with their righty-heavy lineup they’ve been using lately, which will also include Darin Ruf who was just called up. Crawford is getting a day off with Estrada at SS.
- Toronto is giving Kirk a day off with Jansen catching Gausman, and Detroit is giving Baddoo a day off and hitting Vierling at leadoff.
- My favorite stacks are Toronto and Baltimore, as both are at home facing mediocre lefties and currently have the highest projected team totals of the slate. Texas, Atlanta, Boston, and Tampa are other stacks I like taking shots on today, while Oakland is my extreme GPP flyer stack that should put up some runs on Kremer in great hitting weather.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- It will be a tough choice between Kevin Gausman ($11,100) and Spencer Strider ($10,900) for cash games, as both have 10+ strikeout upside in really nice matchups. Right now, I’m leaning towards Gausman, as he’s issued half as many walks as Strider this season, has yet to allow an HR or ER, and Detroit’s offense is just a bit less potent than the Reds, in my opinion.
- The Orioles have some great value bats for cash games today, starting with Austin Hays ($2,900) and Ryan Mountcastle ($3,300). They combined for seven hits and eleven RBI yesterday, and against an even worse lefty SP today, I think both are just too cheap for that kind of upside. James McCann ($2,100) is a great salary saver hitting cleanup, while Ramon Urias ($2,900) is a solid value play hitting 5th.
- It’s going to be hard to stack Toronto with Gausman or Strider as their top four bats are $3,700+, but I would try to get at least two or three TOR bats in your main build today, as they have a great shot at being the highest scoring offense today. George Springer ($3,700) is the cheapest of their big four and my favorite p/$ play for them, while Chapman ($4.4k), Vlad ($3.9k), and Bichette ($4k) are the order in which I’d prioritize their other big bats for cash games. Varsho ($3,300) is also a fine value bat in the L/L matchup, while Merrifield ($2,900) is an OK value option.
- I like getting some TEX exposure in your main build against Keller, starting with Marcus Semien ($3,300), who remains a bit too cheap, and Nate Lowe ($3,200), who is on a 7-game hitting streak at a great price. If Josh Smith ($2,200) does end up hitting second, he’d be one of my favorite p/$ plays of the slate, while Garcia ($3,500) and Jung ($2,900) are high-upside plays to complete the potential full stack.
- More cheap bats I like today include Bobby Witt ($2,900), Max Muncy ($3,000), Ozzie Albies ($2,800), Triston Casas ($2,800), Ryan Noda ($2,300), Jace Peterson ($2,200), and Isaac Paredes ($2,900).
- I will do my best to fit in both Gausman ($10,100) and Strider ($9,300) in cash games, but if I really need the salary for bats, I will likely go with Greene ($6,900) over Strider, as Greene has the highest strikeout upside after the three most expensive SPs on DK.
- Hays ($3,800), Mountcastle ($4,300), McCann ($2,200), and Urias ($3,300) make for a fantastic stack as they’re all underpriced, and Mateo ($3,900) is a fine 5th bat to complete the full stack.
- Matt Chapman ($4,700) is a cash game lock on DK at that price, as he somehow dropped $100 in price overnight after his third straight game with an HR. Springer ($5,400) is where I’d spend if you want a $5k+ TOR bat in your main build. Check out our Underdog Fantasy promo code for new signups, where I like betting higher on Chapman’s 9.5 fantasy points line today.
- There are some great extreme value bats on DK today, so I’d go with a couple of these guys if you need to fill a specific position today for cheap: Ryan Noda ($2,500), Tristan Casas ($2,600), Isaac Paredes ($3,700), Eddie Rosario ($2,400), Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,300), Josh Smith ($2,300), and Jason Heyward ($2,800).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!