MLB DFS Slate Preview: Wednesday, April 19
Erik Wardenburg previews the Wednesday, April 19th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
It’s an early ten-game main slate today starting at 1:10PM EST, so I’m expecting a good amount of regulars to get games off, especially if they had a late game yesterday.
Max Scherzer is back on the mound on nine days rest, Marco Gonzales is back from the paternity list to pitch for Seattle, and top pitching prospect Mason Miller makes his MLB debut for Oakland.
Lots more to get to, so grab some coffee and let’s get to the news and some MLB DFS picks for today!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- PIT/COL is the only game with potential rain, but it’s only a chance of a brief shower and would likely be light enough to play through. It will be in the 50s with 15mph wind blowing in, so not as great hitting conditions as the first two games of this Coors Field series.
- The best hitting weather is in STL with temps reaching the 80s and 20mph wind blowing out to left. TEX/KCR is also great hitting weather with 20mph winds out to left and temps in the 70s, while CLE/DET is probably the worst hitting weather with temps in the low 50s and a slight breeze blowing in.
- PHI/CHW has the most wind blowing in at 13mph but still warm weather in the 60s, and the three outdoor west coast games will be in the 60s-70s with about 10mph winds moving left to right.
- Dome games today are SF/MIA and MIL/SEA.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- With Mookie Betts going on the paternity list yesterday, I’d expect a similar lineup for LAD today, with James Outman at leadoff and Peralta taking Betts’ OF spot.
- Amed Rosario remains out with a back issue, so Gimenez will likely hit 2nd, and Arias will play SS.
- Garrett Mitchell hurt his shoulder late in yesterday’s game, so he will likely get today off, if not longer. MIL will go with a bunch of righties anyways against a lefty SP today. Seattle will also go righty-heavy against Lauer with Kelenic and Crawford as the only lefties.
- STL is giving Donovan another day off, so Edman will hit leadoff and Carlson will move up to second.
- COL is sitting Cron, Montero, Diaz, and Daza, so McMahon will move to cleanup, while Moustakas, Trejo, Castro, and Serven will start.
- The Pirates are my top stack again today, as they face the lefty Gomber, who has allowed 13 ER and 4 HRs over his first three starts, with just 11 total strikeouts. The Rockies have a tougher matchup against Oviedo, who has allowed just 1 ER over his last two starts with 15 strikeouts but are always in play as a stack in Coors Field. Outside of Coors, the Cardinals are my top stack against Bumgarner, hitting in 80+ degree weather and wind blowing out to left, so a big bump to all the righty bats for STL here. CLE, PHI, TEX, NYM, and ATL are other stacks I like taking shots on today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Justin Steele ($11,300) is over $1k pricier than the next SP, but for good reason, as he draws the best matchup of the slate against Oakland, and with 8 strikeout games against MIL and LAD already this season, Steele has legit 10+ strikeout upside today and could be worth every penny. Max Scherzer ($10,200) is on nine days rest but draws a tougher matchup against LAD, but it is a weaker than usual lineup with Betts out of it. It’s a close call but as of now I’m leaning towards Steele in cash games, as his matchup is just so much better than Scherzer’s.
- Cheaper SPs I really like today are Trevor Rogers ($9,100), Marco Gonzales ($7,600), and Cal Quantrill ($7,000).
- Apparently the Pirates will never get a Coors Field pricing bump, as Ke’Bryan Hayes ($2,900) remains under $3k, and with four straight games of 15+ FP, he’s the first guy I’m locking in to cash games again. Kris Bryant ($3,100) and Jurickson Profar ($2,800) are also the same prices and top cash game options, while Blackmon ($3,200) dropped $100 in price and is squarely in play too. McCutchen ($3,600), Santana ($3,200), and Joe ($3,400) are all great plays for the price from PIT.
- STL has some phenomenal value today in Willson Contreras ($2,400), Tommy Edman ($2,600), and Dylan Carlson ($2,300), as all have the platoon advantage on Bumgarner and are hitting in some of the best weather of the slate. At those prices, it should be super easy to fit in Paul Goldschmidt ($3,700) who could be the highest-scoring player of the slate in this matchup, and either Arenado ($3,600) or O’Neill ($2,600) are more great options from STL.
- One guy standing out to me today is Jazz Chisholm ($3,000), as he’s been around this price for almost two weeks now, and is going to get a big bump soon after going for 18.7 and 34.7 FP his last two games. It’s rare to find guys with HR power, big SB upside, hitting leadoff for extra ABs, and at a salary that can be considered a value play, but Jazz fits all those check marks today.
- More guys I like at great prices today include Marcus Semien ($3,400), Adolis Garcia ($3,400), Kyle Schwarber ($3,200), Steven Kwan ($3,200), Bobby Witt ($3,100), Teoscar Hernandez ($2,900), Josh Bell ($2,700), Josh Naylor ($2,600), and Franmil Reyes ($2,300).
- Steele ($9,700) is actually the third most expensive SP on DK, and is a cash game lock for me at that price. Scherzer ($10,800) remains expensive but is still my top choice for SP2, but if you need the salary savings for bigger bats, then I’d go with Trevor Rogers ($8,500) or Martin Perez ($7,400).
- Hayes ($4,200) went up $400 but is still a top play of the slate at that price, while Connor Joe ($3,800), Carlos Santana ($3,800), and Rodolfo Castro ($3,700) make for a very strong value stack from PIT. Profar ($4,100), Blackmon ($4,500), and McMahon ($4,800) are who I’m considering from COL.
- Edman ($3,800), Carlson ($3,300), and Contreras ($4,300) remain top plays of the slate from STL, and for the price, I like O’Neill ($4,300) and Walker ($3,300) as next best STL targets. Check out RG’s Underdog promo code for new signups, where I like taking higher on 1.5 total bases for Edman today.
- Other top value bats to consider today are Trent Grisham ($3,400), Eddie Rosario ($2,500), Edward Olivares ($3,100), Franmil Reyes ($2,700), Oscar Colas ($2,400), Jake Burger ($3,200), and Kerry Carpenter ($2,700).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!