MLB DFS Slate Preview: Wednesday, April 26
Erik Wardenburg previews the Wednesday, April 26th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Eight games on today’s main slate, and we have an earlier than usual start time of 6:35PM EST. Tony Gonsolin will make his 2023 debut for the Dodgers, the Rays will go with an opener/bulk situation with Faucher/Fleming, and the A’s will start Luis Medina for his MLB debut.
The Angels are popping as the top projected offense today against Medina, as they have a 5.8 run total and no other team currently has a total above 5. There’s still plenty of other offenses to target though, so let’s check out today’s news and notes and some MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- SEA/PHI & WSH/NYM are similar rain situations, as there’s a enough potential rain in each game to cause a late start or delay, but likely not enough to cause a postponement.
- OAK/LAA & MIA/ATL have the best hitting weather with temps in the 60s, while SD/CHC has the best pitching weather with temps in the low 40s and a slight 5mph breeze blowing in.
- PIT, PHI, NYM, and SF will see temps in the 50s, and HOU/TB is the lone dome game.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Max Muncy remains on the paternity list for now, so Busch will start at 3B. JD Martinez remains out with a back injury, so Peralta will DH and Outman will hit cleanup. Will Smith also remains out as he returns from a concussion.
- Cody Bellinger is also on the paternity list, so should see either Edwin Rios or Nelson Velazquez take his spot in the lineup for the Cubs.
- Bryan Reynolds is back from the bereavement list, so Marcano will either hit 8th or not be in the lineup.
- Yordan Alvarez is dealing with neck stiffness and still out for Houston, so Tucker will continue to hit 3rd and Hensley or another bench guy will take the DH spot towards the bottom of the order.
- Luis Arraez is back from his knee soreness, but Joey Bart may need more time as he deals with groin tightness.
- The Mariners have a slight change in their batting order as Kelenic will move up to 3rd.
- The Angels are the clear top stack today at home against Medina making his MLB debut. Behind them I like SEA, LAD, TB, and SF as other stack options.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Like yesterday it’s a pretty wide open pitching slate, as we have some aces going in Alcantara, Gilbert, and Senga, some strong options behind them in Smyly, Sandoval, Brown, Elder, Gore, and DeSclafani, and some pretty solid value options in Wacha, Matz, and Contreras. Just based on the great matchup with Miami and seeing what Strider and Morton have done the last couple games for ATL, Bryce Elder ($10,900) is where I’m leaning for cash game SP. Elder has only one start under 40 FP this year, and today is the weakest opponent he’s faced, so even though he’s the most expensive SP on FD I think he offers one of the best ceiling/floor combos today, and could see reduced ownership at that high of a salary.
- Drew Smyly ($8,800) is also looking like a top cash game option at over $2k less salary than Elder, as he’s pitching in tough hitting conditions, and his confidence is at an all-time high after striking out 10 Dodgers last start. If you really want to spend on bats in your main build, then I’d go with Steven Matz ($6,900) at SP, as he gets a pitchers’ park in SF and should have a 25+ FP floor.
- Taylor Ward ($2,900) is back under $3k and could be the highest owned bat in cash games today. Brandon Drury ($2,600) also remains crazy cheap, and with five hits over his last eight ABs he is a fantastic value play on the top projected offense of the slate. Ohtani ($3,700) dropped $200 in price overnight and will also be highly-owned at this price discount, and Anthony Rendon ($2,800) is a solid cheap option to complete a full LAA stack if you don’t have the salary for Trout ($4,200).
- There’s a bunch of guys I’m liking for under $3k; Starling Marte ($2,800), Mark Canha ($2,800), and Tommy Pham ($2,700) for a mini Mets stack. Another cheap mini-stack to consider is Eugenio Suarez ($2,800), Cal Raleigh ($2,700), and Teoscar Hernandez ($2,900), while Houston has a cheap combo also of Dubon ($2,900), Bregman ($3,000), and Abreu ($2,500).
- Bryce Elder ($9,400) comes at a nice discount on DK as the third most expensive SP, so I’m starting him with in cash games. Drew Smyly ($7,300) is just way too cheap given the weather greatly benefiting pitching in Wrigley today, so he’ll be my SP2 in cash games. Contreras ($5,700), Matz ($6,000), Sandoval ($6,500) are great value options I will use in GPPs, while Gore ($7,500) and DeSclafani ($8,600) are other guys I like having exposure to. RG’s Underdog promo code is still available for new signups, and today I like taking higher 5 strikeouts for Elder.
- Starting with LAA again, Brandon Drury ($3,600) is my favorite p/$ plays and will help you fit in Ohtani ($6,400) and/or Trout ($5,900). Ward ($4,500), Rendon ($4,200), and Renfroe ($5,000) are just GPP plays or guys to use in full stacks at those prices.
- Canha ($3,100) and Pham ($3,400) remain a solid value mini stack, along with Dubon ($3,400) and Abreu ($3,500) from HOU. Other strong p/$ options to consider include Suwinski ($3,200), Rosario ($2,500), Aguilar ($2,700), and Slater ($2,800).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!