MLB DFS Slate Preview: Wednesday, August 16th
Erik Wardenburg previews the Wednesday, August 16th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Eight games on tap for today’s main slate, and no rain to worry about anywhere. We have another great pitcher matchup in Toronto with Nola vs. Gausman, and a couple veterans facing off in the last game, with Miley and Kershaw.
Let’s get to today’s news, notes, and MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- CHW/CHC will start with 10mph wind out to left, and that will increase to 15+ mph by the end of the game, so big bump to bats. Temps in the mid 70s, with 50-60% humidity as well.
- BOS/WSH, NYY/ATL, SEA/KCR, BAL/SDP, and MIL/LAD will all be in the low 80s to high 70s, with KC seeing the most wind at 10mph out to left.
- PHI/TOR & LAA/TEX are today’s dome games.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Matt Chapman is dealing with a finger injury and has missed the last two games, so consider him questionable for today. Biggio and Espinal continue to get most of the playing time at 2B and SS, so we’ll see if that continues to today over Schneider and DeJong.
- The Yankees continue to look for ways to spark the offense, and yesterday they went with Kiner-Falefa at leadoff against a righty, while moving Bauers down to fifth. That move produced 1 hit and 0 runs, so we could see another shakeup today.
- Harris and Lopez should continue to benefit with Albies on the IL, with more playing time for Lopez, and Harris hitting higher in the order.
- Luis Robert, CJ Cron, and JD Martinez all returned from injury to their respective lineups yesterday, so look for them all back in there today.
- BAL, MIL, and LAD will be loading up on righty bats against lefty SPs, and there’s a good chance the Padres start Gamel again after a solid debut for them yesterday.
- With the wind blowing out in Wrigley against a mediocre righty in Clevinger, the Cubs are my favorite stack of the slate. ATL, LAD, TEX, and SEA round out my top five stacks, while CHW are also a stack worth covering.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- It’s a tough choice between the top SPs today, but I’m leaning towards Luis Castillo ($10,500) for cash games. Besides one blow-up outing against the Angels, Castillo has allowed 3 or less ER in six of his last seven starts, including three games of 8+ strikeouts in that span. Gausman ($11,100) would be my next choice from the expensive SPs. If you want to save some salary at SP, then either Nola ($9,300), Morton ($9,100), or Gray ($8,600) are in play.
- The cheap stack of Tauchman ($3,100), Hoerner ($3,600), Happ ($3,300), and Swanson ($3,200) are where I’m starting my cash game core. Tauchman has the most pinch-hit risk, so he’s the lowest priority, but I will have at least 2 and likely all 3 of the other bats. Bellinger ($4,200) is much pricier, so he’s an excellent GPP pivot at lower ownership, and I’d use him over Tauchman in cash games if you can fit him.
- The Mariners are also hitting in great weather and offer some fantastic value. Suarez ($2,700), France ($2,900), Raleigh ($2,900), and Hernandez ($2,600) are one of my favorite cheap GPP stacks, and I’ll likely have at least one or two from that group in my cash game lineup depending on positional needs.
- Michael Harris ($2,900) dropped $300 in price and remains one of the best p/$ plays of the entire slate, and I’d expect almost every cash game lineup to have him today. Ozuna ($2,700) continues to rake and is the next best value bat from ATL, while Rosario ($2,800) remains a solid cheap option along with d’Arnaud ($2,900), if he starts today.
I like taking higher than 1.5 total bases for Harris on Underdog, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Some other value bats to consider today include Amed Rosario ($2,800), Dominic Canzone ($2,400), Mitch Garver ($3,000), Yoan Moncada ($2,500), and Adam Duvall ($3,000).
- This is the cheapest MacKenzie Gore ($6,000) has been all season on DK, and even against Boston, I think he can pay off this price with a solid game. I’m not saying he’s a cash game lock, but I can’t ignore this low of a salary for a pitcher with his upside, so get some GPP exposure and stack bats along with him. Jon Gray ($6,900) is at his second lowest salary of the season, and he is a top cash game p/$ SP option. Luis Castillo ($9,600) remains my SP1.
- Ian Happ ($3,800) is the first bat I’m locking in, as he’s just too cheap for someone on my favorite stack of the slate. Tauchman ($3,700) is the next best Cubs value, while Hoerner/Bellinger/Swanson are all $5k+ and are luxury options if you have the salary and positional availability.
- France ($3,300) and Hernandez ($3,600) are the best values from Seattle, and if you need an extreme salary saver, I’d consider Canzone ($2,600) too. Harris ($4,400), Ozuna ($4,300), and Rosario ($3,700) remain the best values from ATL.
- Mitch Garver ($3,600) is my favorite p/$ catcher and a great way to get some TEX exposure in cash games. If you want some White Sox exposure, there are some great value options in Benintendi ($2,800), Jimenez ($3,600), and Moncada ($3,000).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!