MLB DFS Slate Preview: Wednesday, August 30th
Erik Wardenburg previews the Wednesday, August 30th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Just six games on today’s main slate, with a slightly earlier start time of 6:40PM EST. No rain issues to worry about, and Coors Field is our best hitting weather with temps in the 80s and wind blowing out.
The Braves projected run total is just silly right now, as it sits around 8.2. This is one of, if not the highest, team total I’ve ever seen, with just COL and LAD the only other teams on the slate currently with a team total above 5. Pitching is also very top heavy today, as we have Cole, Eflin, and Luzardo for spend ups, and then a lot of cheap guys with low floors.
Let’s check out today’s news, notes, and some MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- ATL/COL will start in the high 80s and dip to the high 70s by games end, with a constant 11mph wind blowing out to center. We didn’t need more reason to target ATL bats, but this great hitting weather is just that.
- PIT/KC will be the low 80s with a slight breeze blowing in. ARI/LAD in the mid 70s with 5-8mph wind blowing out. TEX/NYM in the mid 70s with 12mph wind out to right. NYY/DET in the low 60s with 5-8mph wind out to right center. TBR/MIA is the lone dome game today.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Harrison Bader was put on waivers yesterday, but still ended up playing the full game, so we’ll see if he sits today or gets another game under his belt before moving on from the Yankees.
- Jorge Soler left early yesterday with hip tightness, but said postgame that he feels better and hopes to play today or the next day. For now I’m assuming he’ll get a day off today.
- Brendan Rodgers has missed the last two games with an illness, so consider him questionable today, with Harold Castro likely starting again if he remains out.
- Load up on ATL as they are by far the highest upside stack of the slate. COL has a solid team total around 5.3 runs currently, but just know that they’re facing a pitcher in Vines who has a 3.63 ERA in 70 career minor league games, which includes a 2.70 ERA this season, so they’re not facing a total blow-up candidate. LAD also has a healthy team total around 5.5 runs, and have shelled Kelly and Gallen for 16 runs the last two games. Even though Pfaadt has been solid lately, LAD is about as tough an opponent he could face right now and is a solid stack. I also really like TEX as a stack, as they’re facing a pitcher in Denyi Reyes who has allowed 13 ER and 4 HR’s over his last three minor league starts, and has a 5.80 ERA this year in AAA.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Gerrit Cole ($11,100) is expensive but by far the best cash game SP option today. He’s coming off an 11 strikeout domination of the Rays, and now gets a Tigers team that has put up more than 2 runs just once in their last four games against much weaker pitching. Eflin ($10,000) is also coming off an 11 strikeout game, and is a solid pivot off Cole if you need the extra salary or want an SP at lower ownership. Luzardo ($9,600) finally had a solid game after four rough outings, but at almost $10k he’s just a GPP play for me today against the Rays. Dunning ($7,700), Pfaadt ($6,700), and even Vines ($5,800) are cheap guys I like having exposure to in tournaments today.
- If you start with Cole in cash games, you have just under $3k per hitter salary remaining, so it’ll be tough to do a full Braves stack but not impossible. I’m really hoping d’Arnaud ($3,400) gets the start at catcher as he’d be one of my favorite plays of the slate, and stacking him with Ozuna ($3,700), Arcia ($3,300), and Albies ($3,800) leaves you with just over $2,400 per player, so it is a doable full stack. The other route is going with Acuna ($5,200) and Riley ($4,200), who are the highest upside ATL bats with the platoon advantage on Freeland, which also leaves you with just over $2,400 per bat to fill the last six hitters. Basically, I will be trying to get 3-4 ATL bats in cash games with enough salary left to fill the rest of my lineup with solid extreme value bats.
I like taking higher than 2.5 total bases for Riley on Underdog, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- PIT and KCR are looking like the best place to go next to find those extreme value bats, as they’re both facing mediocre starters in solid hitting weather. Connor Joe ($2,400) should hit cleanup and is a solid guy to use at either 1B or OF, along with Peguero ($2,600) coming off a monster 35 FP game yesterday. From KC, I’m looking at Perez ($2,500), Melendez ($2,700), and Massey ($2,200) for extreme salary saver options.
- The Yankees also have a few solid values to consider, starting with DJ LeMahieu ($2,600) at leadoff who has three position eligibility. Volpe ($2,600) is a great salary saver too with two HR’s over his last three games, and Pereira ($2,100) at almost minimum price is a decent value option who is still finding his footing in the majors.
- Jankowski ($2,500) is in play for value from Texas along with Vogelbach ($2,300) and Stewart ($2,300) from the Mets. In the late game, we can consider Thomas ($2,200), Moreno ($2,100), Peralta ($2,500), and Heyward ($2,400) for more extreme salary savers.
- I will do my best to fit in Cole ($11,500) and Eflin ($9,700) in cash games, as I think fading either’s 30+ FP upside is too risky for this small of a slate with the limited pitching options. Dunning ($7,600) is the cheapest SP I’d consider for a cash game SP2, while Luzardo, Pfaadt, and Vines remain guys to have in your GPP pool.
- Ozuna ($5,200), d’Arnaud ($4,100), and Arcia ($4,600) remain the best ATL values, while Rodgers ($3,300) and Goodman ($2,900) are where I’m looking for value from COL.
- Joe ($3,300) and Peguero ($2,900) remain the best values from PIT, while Melendez ($3,400) and Velazquez ($2,900) are my favorite KC values to target.
- Volpe ($3,600) is easily my favorite SS for cash games, with LeMahieu ($3,900), IKF ($3,300), and Pereira ($2,400) remaining other affordable Yankees to consider.
- Jankowski ($2,900) remains the best value from TEX along with Garver ($3,800) or Heim ($3,600) at C, and in the last game I still like the prices of Thomas ($2,400), Peralta ($2,800), and Heyward ($2,600).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!