MLB DFS Slate Preview: Wednesday, August 9th
Erik Wardenburg previews the Wednesday, August 9th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Big 9-game main slate tonight that shouldn’t have any weather issues. The Mariners are calling up one of their top pitching prospects, Emerson Hancock, straight from Double-A, and at just $4,000 on DraftKings, he may be too cheap to fade against a Padres team that just got shut out yesterday while striking out 14 times.
The Braves and Red Sox both currently have projected run totals over 6, while only the Orioles have one just over 5, so those three are the clear top stacks. We have a great selection of stud SPs and value SPs to choose from, along with some lower-owned offenses to target. So let’s get to some MLB DFS picks and today’s news/notes!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- NYY/CWS is our only game with a rating worse than green, as it’s currently yellow/green. There will be rain in Chicago today, but it looks like the heavy rain should stay south and clear out by first pitch. They should start on time with a light drizzle or play after a brief late start, but regardless the game should play in full. Temps in the high 70s with a slight breeze to left.
- HOU/BAL will be in the mid 80s with a slight breeze to right. ATL/PIT in the high 70s. KC/BOS in the mid 70s with 10mph wind to right. TOR/CLE in the mid 70s. CHC/NYM in the low 80s with 12mph wind to right. SFG/LAA in the low 70s with a slight breeze to left center.
- LAA/ARI & SDP/SEA are today’s dome games.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Adam Frazier is expected back in the BAL lineup after sitting a couple games, while Ramon Urias left early yesterday with heel discomfort, so I’d expect Jordan Westburg to handle 3B today.
- Ronald Acuna was drilled by a pitch in his elbow yesterday, but x-rays were negative and he’s in the lineup today.
- Boston will take a cautious approach with Trevor Story and play him at SS every other day for about a week initially. He will still DH between SS starts occasionally like today.
- Seiya Suzuki is back in the Cubs lineup against a lefty, Morel is hitting leadoff, and Wisdom is in with Madrigal getting a breather.
- Yasmani Grandal is in the lineup even after leaving early with knee soreness, and Tim Anderson is back in there at leadoff.
- JD Martinez is getting more imaging on his groin/hamstring today after he was scratched from the lineup yesterday, so look for him to miss some time. This should give more playing time to Kike Hernandez against righties.
- Just based on pure upside, the Braves are my favorite stack, but if we’re taking salaries into consideration, then the Red Sox are my favorite full stack for cash games. BAL, CHC, CWS, and NYY are some of my other favorite stacks.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Nick Pivetta ($8,500) is coming off a terrible outing against Toronto, so he should see an ownership dip, but he’s still super cheap and gets a much better matchup against KC. It’s a tough choice between the expensive SPs of Shohei Ohtani ($11,200), Kevin Gausman ($11,000), and Max Fried ($10,600), so if you don’t want to make that choice and instead want to save $2,000+ in salary for your bats, Pivetta would be my pick for a cheap cash game SP (there is some concern he doesn’t go too deep on 3 day rest). Jack Flaherty ($9,300), Yu Darvish ($9,800), and Logan Allen ($8,700) are other SPs I like including in your GPP pool.
- Ozzie Albies ($3,800) remains the best value of the top ATL bats and will be my cash game 2B. Ronald Acuna ($4,900), Austin Riley ($4,000) and Matt Olson ($4,400) are luxury options that I’ll get in if the salary available lets me.
I like taking higher than 1.5 total bases for Albies on Underdog, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Boston is the team to target for value, as Rafael Devers ($3,500) is their most expensive bat. Jarren Duran ($3,100), Masataka Yoshida ($3,200), and either Story ($3,300) or Triston Casas ($2,800) make for a fantastic full value stack in cash games.
- Baltimore is also full of value, hitting in great weather with high-upside options like Adley Rutschman ($3,000), Gunnar Henderson ($3,200), Ryan O’Hearn ($2,700), and Ryan Mountcastle ($2,900). All of them are in play to help fill out your cash game lineup or as a full stack in GPPs.
- Mike Clevinger has been really struggling lately, with just 5 total strikeouts over his last two starts, so I also like targeting a Yankees bat or two in your main build. Jake Bauers ($2,700), Gleyber Torres ($3,100), and Giancarlo Stanton ($3,000) are all super cheap still, and Aaron Judge ($4,000) is always in play.
- Emerson Hancock ($4,000) is just comically cheap for someone with his ability and upside, so I don’t see how he doesn’t up as one of my SPs in cash games. There are plenty of proven SPs at great salaries if you don’t want the risk of a rookie making his debut, as Yu Darvish ($8,800), Nick Pivetta ($7,800), and Jack Flaherty ($7,200) are all at great prices with higher floors than Hancock. Max Fried ($9,400) will likely be my SP1, as he’s over $1,000 cheaper than both Shohei Ohtani and Kevin Gausman and draws a nice matchup with PIT.
- Using Hancock will make it much easier to stack the Braves, so I’ll likely have Ozzie Albies ($5,400), Austin Riley ($5,700), and Matt Olson ($6,300) in my main build. We’ll see if Ronald Acuna ($6,800) is in the lineup, and if he is, I’ll do my best to jam him in as well. Boston is much more affordable, and all of their top 5-6 hitters in the order are in play depending on your positional needs. If you spend at both of your SP spots, then Michael Massey ($2,700) and MJ Melendez ($3,100) are a couple KC value options to consider.
- Ian Happ ($3,700), Yan Gomes ($3,100), and Seiya Suzuki ($3,200) are an excellent value stack for the Cubs, while the Yankees also have a nice value trio of Jake Bauers ($2,800), Billy McKinney ($2,300), and Harrison Bader ($3,300). David Peralta ($2,800), Jason Heyward ($2,900), and Kike Hernandez ($2,900) are another value trio to consider if you want some LAD exposure.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!