MLB DFS Slate Preview: Wednesday, July 19
Erik Wardenburg previews the Wednesday, July 19th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
There are eight games on today’s main slate, with more hot temps and likely no rain concerns. Coors Field is off this slate, so we don’t have to worry about Houston putting up just three runs again. However, Atlanta is available, and hitting in great weather with a 6+ team total, so they’re easily the top offense to target today.
It’s a great mix of solid SPs and high-upside offenses today, so let’s get to some MLB DFS picks after checking out today’s weather, news, and lineup notes!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- NYY/LAA is our hottest game, with temps in the low 90s at first pitch and 5-9mph wind blowing out.
- ARI/ATL is the next best hitting weather with temps in the mid-80s and 5mph wind out to left, and after putting up 29 combined runs yesterday, this is definitely a game worth stacking up.
- SFG/CIN will be in the mid to low 80s and in a great hitters’ park with a game total currently at 10.5. This is another game that’s stackable on both sides.
- DET/KCR will be in the mid-80s with 10mph wind blowing in, and they may have to play through some rain showers, especially later in the game. Roth is currently not expecting a delay of any kind as models aren’t showing anything too heavy, but double-check closer to lock for an update.
- WSH/CHC will be in the 70s with a slight breeze in from right, CHW/NYM will be in the high 70s, and today’s dome games are SD/TOR and MIN/SEA.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Taylor Kohlwey will make his Padres debut hitting 8th today, and Campusano is starting at catcher for Sanchez.
- LaMonte Wade left early yesterday with hamstring cramps, so there’s a good shot he gets at least today off. This should move Pederson to leadoff and give the red-hot Wilmer Flores the start at 1B. Crawford is dealing with his recurring knee issue and may sit again, which would likely give Schmitt another start. Davis is also getting a breather today so newly called up Villar will start for him.
- India is the odd man out today for the Reds, so McLain will handle 2B and Steer is back in there at 3B hitting fifth.
- Eloy Jimenez remains out of the lineup for the White Sox, so Grandal will DH and Burger is up to cleanup as Vaughn is getting a breather. Perez is catching and Andrus is in at 2B over Remillard.
- Sam Hilliard went on the IL yesterday and the Braves called up Forrest Hill to help at OF. Eddie Rosario is back in the lineup so it’s a regular ATL lineup for today. Perdomo is getting a breather for AZ, so McCarthy will hit leadoff and Ahmed will handle SS.
- Salvador Perez is back in the lineup for KC, and even against a lefty Olivares is getting a night off.
- Buxton remains out of the Twins lineup along with Taylor and Solano. Wallner will DH, Castro will play CF, and Farmer will handle 3B.
- The Braves are my top stack today as the only team with a currently projected run total above 6, as they’re at home hitting in fantastic weather against a very mediocre Ryne Nelson. The Reds are my next favorite stack against the low strikeout righty Stripling, followed by the Giants against Ashcraft, who has just one game with more than 2 strikeouts in his last six starts. The Mets and Cubs round out my top five stacks today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Luis Castillo ($10,500) looks like the clear top spend-up SP for cash games today, as he’s at home (pitcher’s park) against a Twins team currently with the lowest projected run total of the slate. Justin Verlander ($9,500) would be my next target if you wanted to go a bit cheaper, and if you want to use all your salary on top bats, then I don’t mind taking a shot on Chase Silseth ($5,500) as he’s coming off a fantastic AAA start with 8 strikeouts.
- Austin Riley ($3,400) is the first bat I’m locking into cash games, as he somehow dropped $100 in salary after going for over 64 FP yesterday and is an absolute steal today. I’ll do my best to fit in Acuna ($4,800), Albies ($3,900), and Olson ($4,300) as well, and I will almost certainly have at least three Braves in my main build today.
I like taking higher than 2 total bases for Acuna on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- SF and CIN offer some excellent value today, and it’s looking pretty likely my cash game lineup will consist of just players from ATL/SF/CIN. Pederson ($3,000), Conforto ($3,000), Flores ($2,700), and Yastrzemski ($2,900) have a good chance of hitting 1-4 today, and in a great hitters’ park with hot temps, they are one of the best value stacks of the slate. From CIN, Jake Fraley ($3,300) is my favorite p/$ play, as he should hit cleanup and has two HRs in his last three games. Friedl ($3,200) is another strong value option along with Encarnacion-Strand ($2,800), while De La Cruz ($4,200), McLain ($3,800), Steer ($3,400), and Votto ($3,500) are all in play depending on your positional needs and salary available.
- Some other solid p/$ guys to consider in cash games today include Nimmo ($3,300), Perdomo ($2,800), Abrams ($2,900), Happ ($2,900), Suzuki ($2,700), Kelenic ($3,000), Torkelson ($2,900), Baez ($2,700), and Vierling ($2,800).
- Castillo ($9,300) remains too cheap and is my favorite cash game SP, and I like pairing him with Verlander ($8,800). Darvish ($8,000), Berrios ($8,200), Morton ($9,100), Rodriguez ($9,500), and Silseth ($7,000) are all guys I like to include in your GPP pitching pool.
- Austin Riley ($5,100) remains the best value from ATL, followed by Ozuna ($3,800), while the other top bats are all $5,900+. I will pick and choose who I try to fit in, with Acuna ($6,500) the priority.
- Conforto ($3,300), Flores ($3,100), and Yastrzemski ($3,000) are my favorite value stack of the slate, while the CIN bats are priced up compared to FD, but I still like Encarnacion-Strand ($2,500) for extreme value. Friedl ($4,500), Steer ($4,900), and Votto ($4,600) are pretty affordable as well, and I may end up with one or two of them in my main build.
- Tauchman ($2,800), Happ ($3,400), and Suzuki ($3,300) are a solid value trio if you want Cubs exposure, and CJ Abrams ($3,200) remains a strong value shortstop from Washington. DET offers some nice value options in Ibanez ($3,300), Vierling ($3,200), and Torkelson ($3,800).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!