MLB DFS Slate Preview: Wednesday, July 5
Erik Wardenburg previews the Wednesday, July 5th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Big 11-game main slate today with mostly great weather, a few offenses really standing out as top targets, and a nice mix of expensive and affordable SPs. It’s also the MLB debut for Colton Cowser who is being called up by Baltimore today and should be a regular OF starter for them.
Lots of news and notes to get to before some MLB DFS picks, so let’s get started!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- TOR/CHW is our rain concern today, as the timing of a storm system will be crucial in the game playing after a likely late start or potentially the game getting PPD. For now, Roth thinks it’s most likely to “late start and play” uninterrupted, but as always, make sure to check his updates closer to lock. Temps in the 70s with 8-10mph wind blowing out.
- CIN/WSH, ATL/CLE, and BAL/NYY will all have great hitting weather with temps in the 80s. TEX/BOS is our next warmest game, with temps in the high 70s.
- KC/MIN will be in the low 70s with 10-13mph wind blowing out to right. LAA/SDP and PIT/LAD will be in the 60s, while SEA/SFG will be in the high 50s.
- Dome games include CHC/MIL & NYM/ARI.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- The promotion of Colton Cowser for Baltimore may signal that they will be cautious with Austin Hays and his hip injury with the All-Star Break coming up. Cowser should see regular OF starts, and will hit seventh in his debut today.
- The Yankees are sticking with Rizzo at leadoff, while Bader is getting a breather so IKF will handle CF.
- Alex Call is back with the Nationals and Derek Hill has been optioned. Call should get most/all of the CF starts until Robles returns.
- Triston Casas is getting a day off, so Turner will play 1B, Yoshida will DH, and Duvall will start in CF. Duran and Taveras are getting breathers for TEX, so Garver and Grossman will start for them.
- Josh Naylor is dealing with tendinitis in his wrist, so I’d expect him out again today and possibly through the All-Star break. Freeman and Fry should benefit the most with each seeing spot starts until Naylor returns.
- Michael Massey returned yesterday for KC and will get his regular 2B/DH starts against righties. Miranda and Taylor are off the the Twins, so Solano and Castro will start for them.
- Nick Madrigal went on the IL with a hamstring strain, and Patrick Wisdom came off the IL, so Wisdom and Morel should handle 3B for now.
- Trout went on the IL yesterday, and now it looks like Rendon will join him after fouling a ball off his knee. Ohtani is also dealing with a blister on his hand but should be able to DH still. Jo Adell is up for Trout and hitting cleanup tonight, while Escobar is up to second in the order with Ward getting a day off.
- Nelson Cruz was DFA’d by the Padres, and righty OF Matthew Batten was called up. Against a lefty today, Dixon will start at 1B with Bogaerts at DH, Kim at SS, and Cronenworth at 2B.
- Ty France remains out for Seattle, so Mike Ford will hit cleanup and play 1B.
- The Giants are getting short on righty bats with Estrada breaking his hand and Bryce Johnson being sent down. They should still be able to get six righties in the lineup against Milone today along with Conforto and Yaz, and either Wade or Crawford will likely start as well.
- Mendick was sent down for DJ Stewart, so Baty will likely start at 3B in the L/L matchup for the Mets. Corbin Carroll returned yesterday for AZ and immediately homered, so he’s good to go. Ketel Marte is getting a breather so Longoria will move up to second in the order and Ahmed will handle SS with Perdomo at 2B.
- The Dodgers and Braves are my top stacks today, with both sitting at projected team totals of around 5.6 runs. The Twins are close behind them with a 5.3-run total against Marsh, who got blown up last start for 5 ER. SD and NYM round out my top five stacks for today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- The Royals have by far the lowest projected run total today currently at just 3.2, so Pablo Lopez ($10,800) is standing out as a top cash game SP. Lopez is good at limiting HRs (just two allowed in his last six starts), and he has at least six strikeouts in all but two starts this year, so his high floor and massive ceiling makes him worth the price today in a great matchup at home. If you want to save some salary at SP, consider Ashcraft ($8,100) against Washington, coming off his best start in a while against SD (42 FP).
- I definitely want some LAD and ATL exposure in cash games, but going with Lopez at SP will make it hard to fit many of their top bats, as most are $3,600+. Peralta ($2,600), Heyward ($2,500), Outman ($2,700), Ozuna ($3,200), and Rosario ($3,000) are all in value consideration, and I will pick and choose a couple of expensive bats depending on salary and positional availability.
- The Twins are the top offense for value today, as even their highest upside bat in Buxton is just $3,500. Correa ($3,300), Julien ($2,900), Kirilloff ($2,700), and Kepler ($2,800) are all worthy of cash game consideration at a variety of positions, and I will almost certainly have at least three MIN bats in my main build to help fit in Lopez and a couple of expensive bats from LAD and ATL.
I like taking higher than 1.5 hits+runs+rbis for Buxton on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- SD and NYM are other offenses I like using a couple of one-off bats in cash games. Manny Machado ($3,200) continues to be underpriced and is a great 3B option with the platoon advantage, while Kim ($3,000) and Bogaerts ($3,200) are strong values to consider too. Pham ($3,100), Marte ($2,900), and Alvarez ($2,700) are all strong values from the Mets, and if you can afford Lindor ($3,500) or Alonso ($4,100), I think both could have huge games today.
- Some other cheap bats I like today include Jack Suwinski ($3,000), Nick Gonzales ($2,000), Jarren Duran ($2,900), Masataka Yoshida ($3,200), Gunnar Henderson ($3,000), Colton Cowser ($2,500), Ryan O’Hearn ($2,600), and Gleyber Torres ($2,800).
- I still like Pablo Lopez ($10,100) for cash games, and I’ll try to fit him if I like the bats I end with. If there’s a lineup I love that needs more salary savings at SP, I may go with a cheaper combo of Ashcraft ($6,100) and Soroka ($6,700), as both are $2k+ cheaper than FD, with both having solid 20+ FP upside today. Seth Lugo ($7,900) is another great value option facing an Angels lineup without Trout and Rendon.
- Colton Cowser ($2,000) is the minimum price on DK and will be hard to fade in cash games even if he hits low in the order, as the hitting conditions are excellent in the already hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Alex Kirilloff ($2,700) and Max Kepler ($2,800) are jumping out as top values today, along with Edouard Julien ($3,000).
- Tauchman ($2,800) and Duran ($2,800) are strong p/$ plays to complete a full extreme value OF in cash games, while we have a bunch of other great value OFs in play like Tommy Pham ($3,200), Starling Marte ($3,700), David Peralta ($3,300), Jason Heyward ($2,700), and Jack Suwinski ($3,500). With so much OF value guys like Acuna, Tatis, Betts, and Ohtani should be pretty contrarian cash game bats today if you can fit any.
- The Giants are a team worth mentioning as a strong value stack against Milone. Slater ($3,100), Flores ($2,500), Davis ($3,800), Bailey ($3,500), and Matos ($2,900) are one of my favorite GPP stacks, and I don’t mind using any as one-offs in cash games.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!