MLB DFS Slate Preview: Wednesday, June 14
Erik Wardenburg previews the Wednesday, June 14th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Another huge slate today with 12 games on tap, and this is one of the most loaded SP slates in a while. Valdez, Kershaw, Castillo, and Glasnow all have excellent matchups today and will likely be the highest-owned. Cole and Verlander are facing each other, making a win harder for each, but both can be slate winners in GPPs. There are at least five more SPs I want exposure to in GPPs, so we are not short on pitching options today.
The Dodgers looked like they were going to put up 20 runs yesterday after a 4-run first inning but ended with just 5 runs. I’m going right back to them today and their 5.4 projected run total currently, and with Muncy still out, we should see Heyward and Peralta hitting higher in the order at super cheap salaries. Gunnar Henderson remains the hottest hitter in baseball with another monster game yesterday, and he only went up $100 on each site. At the same time, Boston currently has the highest projected run total and should offer some nice value at the top of the order.
Plenty more MLB DFS picks to get to along with some news and notes for today, so let’s build some lineups!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- COL/BOS will see some rain that could cause a late start or mid-game delay. It’s too early to know which is more likely, but pitchers look too risky to trust here. High 60s with 10mph wind out to left here.
- NYY/NYM should play fine after a potential late start, and the bats get a slight bump here with temps in the high 60s, 70% humidity, and 12mph wind blowing out.
- CIN/KCR is the hottest game of the slate with temps in the 80s, followed by TOR/BAL, which will see temps in the 70s.
- PIT/CHC, CLE/SDP, TBR/OAK, and CHW/LAD will all be in the 60s with high humidity.
- Dome games today include PHI/ARI, MIA/SEA, WSH/HOU, and LAA/TEX.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Mountcastle went on the IL yesterday with vertigo, so Ryan O’Hearn should start almost every game against righties until he returns, and likely at cleanup.
- The Red Sox finally face a lefty, as it’s been over a week, so Refsnyder will move up to leadoff and is a top value play today. Devers and Yoshida are off today so Duvall will move up to cleanup, Arroyo is up to fifth, and Casas is getting a rare start against a lefty.
- Profar is off today so Nolan Jones will move up to the leadoff spot for COL. Montero will get a rare start against a righty as Moustakas will take a seat.
- Nate Lowe is getting a day off, so Ezequiel Duran will move up to third in the order putting him in play for value on both sites.
- Brandon Drury is appealing his 1-game suspension, so he’ll likely be in the lineup today, but it’s something to monitor if you plan on using him.
- Marte and Carroll are sitting for Arizona, so Perdomo will hit leadoff and Smith will take Carroll’s spot in the outfield.
- Max Muncy is dealing with a hamstring issue and will be out until at least Thursday. This should give Taylor another start at 3B, while Heyward and Peralta will hit higher in the order. Will Smith has caught four straight games, and Austin Barnes caught Kershaw in his last start, so there’s a good chance Barnes catches today and Smith will get a day off.
- LAD and BOS are the top stacks today, and after them, there’s a bunch of offenses with solid projected run totals worth stacking in GPPs. The Rays have another huge 5.4+ team total, so be aware of them in tournaments if not your main build. The Phillies’ total just crept up above 4 runs, but I think they put up more and are one of my favorite sneaky stacks of the slate.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Verlander ($8,800) is the cheapest SP I’d consider for cash games, but I think it’s smart to spend a bit more for an SP with a higher floor/ceiling combo. Kershaw ($11,100) and Castillo ($10,800) have the highest projected ceilings today, and for the slight price discount and slightly better matchup, I’m leaning toward Castillo for cash games. Valdez ($11,300) and Glasnow ($10,100) are both fantastic plays as well, so if you can’t decide on who to go with in cash games, this might be a GPP day for you.
- The Red Sox currently have the top four p/$ projected bats of the slate, so I would get at least 2-3 of them in your main build for some exposure to this massive 6+ projected run total for BOS. Justin Turner ($2,900) and Adam Duvall ($2,900) are my favorite plays for them, followed by Rob Refsnyder ($2,600), who will be much more appealing if he does hit leadoff as projected. Christian Arroyo ($2,200) is a fine extreme salary saver at the 2B position.
- Jason Heyward ($2,600) and David Peralta ($2,400) are two of the top-value plays of the slate, likely hitting in the heart of the order for LAD. Using both will also help you fit in Freddie Freeman ($4,500) and/or Betts ($4,200).
I like taking higher than 2.0 hits+runs+rbis for Betts on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Gunnar Henderson ($3,100) is pretty much a must-play at this point, with five straight games of 21+ FP and barely an increase in salary over that stretch. Hitting leadoff with the platoon advantage in great hitting conditions, along with 3B and SS eligibility, should put him in most peoples’ main builds today. George Springer (3,100) is the same price, also hitting leadoff in great weather, and is my favorite Toronto play for the price.
- More strong p/$ bats in cash game consideration today include Bobby Witt ($3,300), JT Realmuto ($2,900), Trea Turner ($3,000), Manny Machado ($2,900), Kyle Tucker ($3,400), Alex Bregman ($3,100), Jose Abreu ($2,600), Taylor Ward ($2,900), Ian Happ ($2,800), and Ryan O’Hearn ($2,600).
- Luis Castillo ($9,800) remains my favorite SP for cash games, especially as the fourth most expensive. Tyler Glasnow ($9,400) is who I’m leaning towards for SP2, as he has a K-rate above 31% this year, draws one of the best matchups against Oakland, and is at a great price as the sixth most expensive SP. Verlander ($8,000) is still the cheapest I’d consider in cash games, and he is a very strong GPP play at that price. Wacha ($8,200) is another GPP play I love at a big discount to FD, Valdez ($10,300) and Kershaw ($10,800) remain elite upside options in all formats.
- Jason Heyward ($2,500) is my top p/$ bat of the slate, assuming he hits fourth or fifth in the order. David Peralta ($2,700) also remains a top cash game option for more cheap LAD exposure.
- Rob Refsnyder ($2,600) will be a very popular value bat in cash games if he hits leadoff or anywhere high in the order, and Justin Turner ($3,800) remains at a great price for a cheap Boston mini-stack. Christian Arroyo ($3,100) is also a much more appealing play hitting higher in the order today in the five-hole.
- Henderson ($3,700) remains too cheap given how well he’s been producing from the leadoff spot, and will be a cash game staple for most. Ryan O’Hearn ($2,800) has been swinging a hot bat as well, and is a fine value option if you don’t go with Turner at 1B.
- Mike Tauchman ($2,800) is someone to consider for value, as he’s gone for 7+ FP in six of his last seven games and should continue to hit leadoff. Ward ($3,900) and Renfroe ($3,700) are my favorite value bats for LAA exposure.
- More cheap options I like today include Nolan Jones ($3,900), Seiya Suzuki ($3,700), Jose Abreu ($2,800), Kevin Newman ($2,900), Michael Massey ($2,500), Ezequiel Duran ($3,400), and Evan Longoria ($3,000).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!