MLB DFS Slate Preview: Wednesday, June 21
Erik Wardenburg previews the Wednesday, June 21st slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Slightly differing main slates today, as FD is including the ATL/PHI game at 6:40 PM EST for a 7-game slate, while DK is going with a 6-game main slate at 7:05 PM EST.
The Guardians’ top pitching prospect, Gavin Williams, will make his MLB debut today, and he couldn’t ask for a better matchup at home against Oakland. He’s an absolute steal on DraftKings for $5,700, and at $8,300 on FanDuel, I’m still looking to use him in GPPs.
There are a couple of games with weather concerns to monitor throughout the day, a couple of leadoff hitter injuries that will change some batting orders, and as always, lots of MLB DFS picks to talk about, so let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- SEA/NYY is rated yellow/orange currently, as light rain builds into moderate rain later in the game. We’ll see if they decide to try to play at all, and if they start on time, how many innings they can squeeze in. Overall I will likely avoid this game in my main build, as it sounds like too many risky variables that could cause shortened SP starts, and with the wind blowing in at 10-15mph, I’m not very high on the bats here either.
- ATL/PHI (FanDuel only) will see some rain tonight, but it could be light enough to play through if they even decide to play at all. Still, Roth can’t rule out a delay of some sort if the rain gets heavier, so SPs are pretty risky here. Winds are also blowing in around 10mph from right, so bats aren’t too appealing here as well against pretty solid pitchers.
- BOS/MIN is scorching hot today, with temps starting in the 90s and staying in the high to mid-80s all game. I’d make sure to have a full stack of this game somewhere, and I like using a lot of bats here in cash games, and SPs are very risky to use as the ball will be flying.
- OAK/CLE will be in the mid-70s with 5-10 mph wind in from right. TEX/CHW will be in the low 70s with left to right 10mph wind. LAD/LAA will be in the low 70s to high 60s with 5-8mph wind blowing out. SDP/SFG will be in the 50s with the usual 15+ mph wind blowing out at Oracle.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- JP Crawford was having trouble lifting his arm after hurting his shoulder in a collision yesterday. He is out at least for today if not longer, so Jose Caballero will play SS and hit leadoff today for Seattle.
- LaMonte Wade experienced side tightness pre-game and was a late scratch yesterday. Oblique stuff is nothing to mess with, so he’ll likely miss some time. I’m expecting a similar lineup as yesterday, with Joc Pederson moving to leadoff and David Villar possibly starting again at 1B.
- Pablo Reyes has an abdominal strain and will likely miss some time, so Hernandez should get regular starts at SS again. Prospect David Hamilton could also see some time there if Reyes is out for a long time. Duvall is getting a day off so Duran will start for him and hit leadoff.
- Tim Anderson remains out with his shoulder injury, so Andrus and Remillard continue to handle the middle infield positions.
- Mickey Moniak could get a start at leadoff against a righty and would be a strong value play if so.
- Even with Ohtani unavailable as a hitter today, the Angels are my favorite stack, as their opponent Grove has allowed 4 ER in each of his last three starts, including 6 HRs over that span. I really like the White Sox as a stack at home against Perez, and I’d make sure to have stack exposure to BOS and MIN just based on how great the hitting conditions will be in that game. CLE is interesting today as they’re facing a pretty solid SP in Blackburn, but with likely much lower ownership than yesterday, I think they’re worth having stack exposure to in GPPs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- If weather were no concern, I’d probably go with Luis Castillo ($10,600) in cash games, but with the slight chance of mid-game delays or even a shortened game for him, I’m going with someone else. Nola has the worst weather, so I’m not on him in a tough matchup with ATL, Gray ($9,900) is too expensive given his recent struggles and the great hitting weather. Although I like Gavin Williams’ ($8,300) upside against OAK for GPPs, he’s just a bit too pricey for the unknowns of an MLB debut in cash games. This leaves Ohtani ($10,700), Kopech ($9,500), and Darvish ($9,100) for cash game consideration, and given the upside, Ohtani stands out as the cash game SP for me. Blackburn ($6,800) and Whitlock ($6,600) are extreme-value SPs I like using in GPPs with stacked hitting lineups.
- Mike Trout ($3,900) is my priority spend-up today against the homerun-prone Grove, and if Moniak ($2,800) ends up hitting leadoff, he’ll be my next top cash game target. Brandon Drury ($3,100) is also very affordable, hitting cleanup on my top stack. If I go with a full LAA stack in cash games, then Ward ($3,000) or Walsh ($2,300) will be my targets depending on salary available.
- Juan Soto ($3,200) dropped $300 overnight and is at his lowest salary in over a month. This is really weird timing for a price drop, as he’s gone for 15.5 and 40.4 FP in his last two games, and even against a bullpen game for SF that will likely see some Manaea, Soto is just too cheap to fade in cash games. Machado ($3,000) and Bogaerts ($3,000) are fine value bats to stack with Soto, and if you afford Tatis ($4,300), he’s always a top option any slate.
I like taking higher than 1.5 total bases for Soto on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- The White Sox offer some great value bats today, as their entire projected lineup is $3.2k or less, and everyone besides Benintendi has the platoon advantage on Perez. Andrew Vaughn ($2,700) is my favorite p/$ play, followed by Luis Robert ($3,200) and Eloy Jimenez ($3,000). Jake Burger ($2,900) would be my fourth target for full stacks.
- BOS/MIN is worth considering a few bats in just with how good the hitting conditions are. Yoshida ($3,400) and Buxton ($3,000) come at fantastic salaries and are my favorite plays from each team. Julien ($2,800), Correa ($2,900), and Kirilloff ($2,600) are great one-offs along with being a strong value GPP stack, and from BOS I like the prices of Verdugo ($3,300), Turner ($3,300), and Duran ($2,600).
- Gavin Williams ($5,700) is too cheap given the matchup with OAK and his big upside as CLE’s #1 pitching prospect, so he will be one of my cash SPs on DK. His price makes it very easy to fit in Ohtani ($11,100) as the other cash game SP, so that will be my combo.
- I’ll do my best to fit in Trout ($6,000), but if I absolutely need to go with someone cheaper to finish my favorite build, then I will do so. Hopefully Moniak ($3,500) makes the lineup and hits leadoff as he’s a fantastic value play today, while Ward ($3,900) and Walsh ($2,500) remain solid plays for the price.
- Andrew Vaughn ($3,100) is an even better value on DK compared to FD, so he’ll be my cash game 1B play, while Luis Robert ($4,800), Eloy Jimenez ($4,200), and Jake Burger ($3,800) are all very affordable and solid targets still.
- Kwan ($3,800), Rosario ($3,300), and Naylor ($3,600) are all strong p/$ plays from CLE, and from the BOS/MIN game, I’m looking at Turner ($4,100), Duran ($3,500), Julien ($3,100), Kirilloff ($3,200), and Lewis ($3,400) as potential cash game plays.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!