MLB DFS Slate Preview: Wednesday, June 28
Erik Wardenburg previews the Wednesday, June 28th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Another huge slate is on tap today with 13 games. Darvish is still ill and will miss another start, so Blake Snell goes today and against the Pirates, he’s looking like the ace of the slate.
The Dodgers started hot yesterday but ended with just five runs, with most of the production coming from 2 HRs from JD Martinez. They have another huge projected run total today against Freeland, and Martinez is easily a top bat of the slate again. Jazz Chisholm had a big return filling up the stat sheet and remains a great play, especially on FanDuel. Ohtani has already won the AL MVP with two more HRs yesterday, and he’s basically a “fit him if you can” option at this point as his price continues to climb.
It looks like rain shouldn’t be an issue today, and a couple of games are scorching hot, but let’s get into today’s news, notes, and MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- MIA/BOS is rated yellow currently as storms are approaching Boston but likely fade away just before they arrive. This could still change and we may see a delayed start if those storms don’t fully fade, but the game should play in full eventually. Temps in the 70s with 10mph wind out to left.
- Afternoon storms should clear by the first pitch for MIL/NYM, with a slight chance of a delayed start but the game will play fine. Temps in the 70s with a slight breeze blowing out.
- CLE/KCR is by far the best hitting weather with temps in the 90s, 40-50% humidity, and 5-10mph wind blowing out. HOU/STL, CIN/BAL & LAD/COL are the next best hitting conditions with temps in the 80s.
- SDP/PIT and PHI/CHC will be in the low 70s, while CHW/LAA and NYY/OAK will be in the 60s. Dome games today are TBR/ARI, DET/TEX, and SFG/TOR.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Jordan Westburg is getting a start against a righty so that’s a good indication he’s looking at a lot of playing time. Urias and Mateo are out of the lineup.
- Yoshida is sitting against a lefty, so Duvall will DH and Refsnyder will handle LF. With limited righty bats available David Hamilton is getting a rare L/L start at SS.
- 3B Jared Tiolo was called up from AAA for the Pirates and Ke’Bryan Hayes is going on the IL.
- Jose Altuve has missed the last two games with heel soreness, but is back in the lineup at leadoff. Bligh Madris is getting a spot start at LF so Julks will take a seat. Walker and DeJong are getting days off for STL, so Burleson and Carlson will start for them with Edman moving to SS.
- Nick Maton was optioned the other day, so I’d expect Short and Schoop to get most of the 3B playing time, while Ibanez should be a regular in the lineup at 2B or OF. Torkelson and Vierling are getting breathers today, so Ibanez is up to second in the order, and Nevin will slot in at 1B hitting seventh.
- Newly promoted Jared Young is starting at DH for the Cubs today, so Morel will play RF and hit third with Suzuki getting a day off.
- Cron is back at 1B hitting fifth, so Montero will get a day off and Grichuk will DH.
- Muncy is out of the lineup and Yonny Hernandez is making his first start as a Dodger batting ninth.
- Perdomo is getting a day off for Arizona, so McCarthy will hit leadoff and is a more appealing value play.
- Even after disappointing yesterday, the Dodgers are still the top stack today. The Rangers are my favorite stack to pivot from Coors Field, followed by the Orioles hitting in great weather against Weaver, who has allowed 10 ER over his last two starts. CLE is another strong stack hitting in 90-degree temps against a bullpen day for KC, and I’d trying having a COL and TB stack somewhere.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- There are a lot of “could be the best pitcher today” SP options at various price points, but I’m not messing around in cash games and am going with Blake Snell ($11,100). Snell has 56 strikeouts and 2 ER over his last six starts, and the Pirates as a team have the seventh most strikeouts against lefties this season. If I were to go super cheap in cash games Dane Dunning ($7,500) would be my pick, while Domingo German ($7,700) is definitely worth some GPP exposure against Oakland. Aaron Nola ($9,600) is a strong GPP play and could see some cash game exposure, but I’ll pay the $1,500 extra for Snell in my main build.
- Coming off a two HR game and no change in salary, J.D. Martinez ($3,800) is my cash game priority as he gets an even better matchup vs. Freeland today. Miguel Vargas ($2,600) is a top value play of the slate and my favorite way to get LAD value along with Miguel Rojas ($2,700), while Betts ($4,500) and Smith ($4,100) are luxuries if you can afford them.
- On the other side of the Coors game, COL has some nice value in Profar ($3,300), Tovar ($2,900), and Cron ($3,200), while McMahon ($3,500) has as much upside as any 2B/3B today at a reasonable price.
- Josh Jung ($3,300) is my top 3B play today, hitting fifth with the platoon advantage on my second favorite offense to target today. Semien ($3,700) is still pretty affordable, along with Garcia ($3,900), and I’ll likely have at least one of them along with Jung in my main build.
I like taking higher than two hits+runs+rbis for Adolis Garcia on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Baltimore is full of value in great hitting weather against a mediocre righty. Rutschman ($2,900) and O’Hearn (2,600) would be my first picks for value, followed by Santander ($3,300) and Mullins ($3,400) if you want a full stack.
- With Jazz Chisholm ($3,200) likely the regular clean-up hitter against righties for Miami, he’s one of my favorite values of the slate. He came right out of the gates hot yesterday after missing over a month, going 3 for 4 with 2 runs and 3 RBIs. He still has big SB upside as well, so at this price likely hitting cleanup I can’t fade his upside. Arraez ($3,200) and De La Cruz ($2,800) are also strong values for more MIA exposure.
- If I have any room left in my cash game lineup I’ll be looking at one-off bats from CLE/KC and the 90-degree temps there. Josh Bell ($2,400) is a great extreme value option, while Rosario ($2,700) is also a solid value. Maikel Garcia ($2,800) is hitting cleanup and is a strong value bat from KC, while Perez ($2,800) and Olivares ($2,500) are guys to keep on your radar as well.
- Blake Snell ($10,300) is still the highest upside SP going today and my favorite cash game pitcher at a very reasonable salary. Dane Dunning ($6,100) is way too cheap against Detroit and will be my SP2. Braxton Garrett ($8,700) is definitely worth having GPP exposure to coming off a 13-strikeout performance, and I love the salaries of German ($8,000) and Sears ($7,100) as solid GPP hedges against each other.
- JD Martinez ($5,200) is still at a great price and my top play of the slate. Miguel Vargas ($4,000) is priced reasonably and definitely in play at 2B, while Miguel Rojas ($2,900) is a great value at SS hitting sixth today. Tovar ($3,800) is an excellent p/$ play at SS, while McMahon ($4,800) and Jones ($4,400) are the next COL bats I’d consider for the price.
- Ryan O’Hearn ($3,200) is one of my favorite DK values of the slate, and you should be able to find a spot for him at either 1B or OF. Jordan Westburg ($2,900) moved from SS to 2B eligibility and is a solid value option, while Santander ($4,400) is worth consideration in the OF.
- Josh Jung ($4,700), Adolis Garcia ($5,400), and Marcus Semien ($5,700) are one of the highest upside stacks today, and I’d try getting at least one or two of them in your main build. From CLE/KC I’m looking at Rosario ($3,700), Bell ($2,800), Garcia ($3,100), and Olivares ($2,700) as potential value bats.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!