MLB DFS Slate Preview: Wednesday, May 17
Erik Wardenburg previews the Wednesday, May 17th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We have a seven game main slate today with some great pitching matchups. Strider vs. Eovaldi, Cole vs. Bassitt, and Burnes vs. Liberatore are going to be fun to watch, and should also provide some nice options for DFS SPs. No Coors Field on the main slate, so SEA/BOS is our highest projected scoring game at 9.5 runs, followed by CLE/CHW at 9.
The Mets called up Mark Vientos, who has been mashing in AAA and is minimum price on DK today. We’ll get another chance to see the return of Corey Seager, as he would have been activated yesterday but a stomach bug delayed that from happening. Let’s get in to some more news and notes for today along with some MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- MIL/STL is by far the best hitting conditions today, with temps in the 70s and 45-65% humidity.
- SEA/BOS will be the coldest game, with temps in the low 50s to high 40s and 10-15mph winds blowing left to right.
- TBR/NYM will be in the low 60s to high 50s with 14-17mph wind blowing in from left. CLE/CHW will be in the low 50s with 10mph wind blowing left to right.
- The dome games today are NYY/TOR, ATL/TEX, and CHC/HOU.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Vladimir Guerrero had to leave early with a knee injury yesterday, and will be out today and possibly longer. Varsho will move up to third in the order and Belt will play 1B and hit fifth.
- Yandy Diaz remains out with his groin injury, and Harold Ramirez is also getting a day off. Josh Lowe will move to leadoff and Paredes will handle 1B and hit fifth.
- Newly promoted Mark Vientos is in the lineup at 3B hitting 8th, and with McNeil getting a day off Eduardo Escobar will play 2B and hit second for the Mets.
- Yelich remains out with his back tightness, so Ruf will hit cleanup as Brosseau is also getting a game off vs. a lefty. For STL, Carlson is going on the IL so Burleson and Donovan will get most OF starts against righties.
- Hopefully Corey Seager kicked his stomach bug overnight and is able to return for TEX, although I’m not looking to use any Rangers bats against Strider today.
- Josh Naylor left early yesterday with leg tightness, and will get at least today off. Bell will start at 1B and Rosario will DH, with newly promoted Rocchio starting at SS. With Ramirez on the bereavement list Gimenez is up to third in the order and Brennan up to fifth.
- Cody Bellinger remains out with his knee injury, so Mastrobuoni will start again at 2B with Morel playing CF and hitting leadoff.
- Sean Murphy is getting a day off, so d’Arnaud will catch and Albies will move up to third in the order.
- Dubon is getting a day off for Houston, so Jeremy Pena will hit leadoff and Hensley will start at 2B and hit ninth.
- Boston is my favorite stack today hitting at home against Marco Gonzales, who has allowed 11 ER over his last four starts with just 10 total strikeouts in that stretch. Brayan Bello has been solid over his last three starts, but I’d still recommend having exposure to some SEA stacks in GPPs. CLE, CHW, and HOU are other stacks I like having exposure to today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- For only seven games there really is a lot of great SP options, but Spencer Strider ($11,500) is in a tier of his own and will be my cash game pitcher. Strider has one game under 10 strikeouts in his last four starts, and Texas is the only team with a projected run total below 3.5 currently. Cole, Eovaldi, Burnes, Senga, and Bassitt are all guys worth having exposure to in GPPs, and for cheap today I like making some lineups with Liberatore and Battenfield.
- The Red Sox are where I’m starting for cash game value bats, as Justin Turner ($2,900) and Rob Refsnyder ($2,400) should hit second and third today with the platoon advantage on Gonzales and are a great mini-stack. Enrique Hernandez ($2,700) is also a fine value target. Seattle’s entire offense remains extremely cheap with Rodriguez ($3,500) the only bat above $3.2k. Jarred Kelenic ($3,100) is my favorite p/$ target from them with the platoon advantage on Bello.
- Smyly has been very up and down this year, so I like some Houston bats in your main build as they’re full of cheap options. Alex Bregman ($2,800) and Kyle Tucker ($3,100) would be my first targets, followed by Pena ($3,000) and Abreu ($2,400).
- CLE/CHW has the second-highest game total of the slate, so I like having some exposure to both offenses. Kwan ($2,900), Rosario ($2,800), Gimenez ($2,800), and Bell ($2,800) are all super cheap and make for a high upside stack, while Luis Robert ($3,600) is the only White Sox bat above $3,000, so they have plenty of value options depending on your positional needs. I like taking higher than 7.5 fantasy points for Kwan on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- More value bats I like today include Starling Marte ($2,700), Will Brennan ($2,400), Brayan Rocchio ($2,000), Gavin Sheets ($2,500), Matt Mervis ($2,300), and Seiya Suzuki ($2,700).
- Strider ($12,000) is expensive but I still can’t fade him in cash games. Cole and Eovaldi are a bit too pricey against tough opponents for a cash game SP2, but there are a lot of great cheap options to pair with Strider. Matthew Liberatore ($7,400) has been great in AAA and the Brewers struggle against lefties, so he brings some big upside today and I don’t mind him in cash games at that price. His opponent Burnes ($8,600) comes at a big $1.4k discount to FD, and although STL’s offense is a tough task especially at home, Burnes is cheap enough to consider for your cash game SP2. If you want to go much cheaper then either Battenfield ($6,000) or Bello ($5,700) are fine options that both bring 20+ FP upside.
- We’ll see if Mark Vientos ($2,000) is in the lineup today, but if he is he will be hard to fade at minimum price with the platoon advantage the way he’s been mashing in AAA. Will Brennan ($2,100), Brayan Rocchio ($2,000), Jake Bauers ($2,000), and Matt Mervis ($2,300) are some other extreme value bats I don’t mind in cash games if it helps you fit in your optimal lineup.
- Justin Turner ($3,400), Rob Refsnyder ($2,800), and Enrique Hernandez ($3,500) remain top p/$ targets from Boston, while JP Crawford ($3,200) is my favorite p/$ bat from Seattle.
- Rosario ($3,700), Bell ($2,800), Benintendi ($3,000), Vaughn ($3,200), and Sheets ($2,500) are all strong value bats from the CLE/CHW game, while HOU also has a couple top value options in McCormick ($3,400) and Abreu ($2,500).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!