MLB DFS Slate Preview: Wednesday, May 24
Erik Wardenburg previews the Wednesday, May 24th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Eight games on today’s main slate, and compared to yesterday, it’s not exactly stacked with SPs. Bryce Miller headlines the slate against Oakland, while Sandy Alcantara is in Coors Field, but still has huge upside and likely lower ownership than usual. Kodai Senga is definitely in the top SP pool today, while James Paxton has been solid since returning. He will look to continue his streak of 5 IP, 2 or less ER, and 5+ strikeouts per start.
Let’s get to today’s news and notes along with some MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- DET/KCR and MIA/COL are rated GREEN/YELLOW as both could see some showers near game time. At worst we could see a late start or two, but both games should play fine. KC is one of our warmest games today, with temps in the high 70s, while COL will be in the low 60s with 10mph wind blowing out to center. SD/WSH and LAD/ATL are the other warmest games, with both in the 70s as well.
- NYM/CHC has fantastic pitching weather, with temps in the low 50s and 18mph wind blowing in from left-center. BAL/NYY and BOS/LAA will be in the low 60s, and today’s only dome game is OAK/SEA.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Ty France was hit by a pitch in the wrist yesterday, and although he avoided a fracture he will get today off and possibly longer. Sam Haggerty will start at 1B today and hit 9th, while everyone else will move up a spot in the order.
- Taylor Ward is back in the lineup against the lefty Paxton, and going forward I’d expect a pretty strict platoon split with him and Moniak. Walsh will get a day off against a lefty with Drury handling 1B. Verdugo is getting a day off for BOS, so Refsnyder will hit leadoff and Tapia will play RF hitting eighth.
- I’m not really sure what the Cubs are thinking, but Christopher Morel is down to 7th in the order after hitting 5th yesterday and hitting another HR. I’d think you’d want the hottest hitter on the planet to get the most ABs as possible or at least hit in the 4/5 holes, but nope. Instead they moved Mastrobuoni up to the 2-hole and moved everyone else down a spot today.
- The Royals can’t seem to make up their mind as to who will hit leadoff, as today we have Matt Duffy there. Perez is getting a day off so Fermin will catch, and righty Nate Eaton remains on the bench over Bradley even against another lefty SP.
- The Rockies have moved Ryan McMahon down to seventh, as he has 1 extra base hit in his last 28 ABs. Moustakas will play 1B and hit 5th. The Marlins will give Jonathan Davis his first start hitting 9th, while Segura is getting the day off and Gurriel will get a rare start against a righty.
- Miami has a 6.26 run total currently and are easily my favorite stack of the slate. Against Alcantara, COL is just a GPP stack for me. The Padres are my next favorite stack hitting in great weather against Trevor Williams, who has allowed 8 ER over his last two starts. Seattle rounds out my top three stacks against Waldichuk, who has allowed 3+ ER in each of his last five starts.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- It’s between Bryce Miller ($10,900) and Kodai Senga ($9,600) for cash game SP today. Miller draws the best matchup in baseball against OAK, who he dominated in his MLB debut three weeks ago with 10 strikeouts and 1 ER. Senga gets the best pitching weather of the slate, with cool temps and big wind blowing in at Wrigley. With his high strikeout upside, he should keep the ball in the park pretty easily too. Miller got up to 102 pitches in his last start, so knowing he has a longer leash this time he gets the edge for me as the matchup is just too juicy to fade in cash games. If you absolutely need the $1,300 in salary for your perfect hitter lineup, then by all means go with Senga.
- The Marlins bats still haven’t seen a Coors Field price bump, and their entire projected lineup is $3.5k or cheaper. Jorge Soler ($3,500) and Bryan De La Cruz ($3,300) remain top targets, while Garett Cooper ($3,100) is a great option at 1B. If Jon Berti remains at leadoff ($3,000), he’d be my target to complete a full stack, otherwise Arraez ($3,300) would be my next choice.
- Juan Soto ($3,400) is my top overall bat of the slate. He should be at least $3,700 in this good of a matchup with Williams, and the 75+ degree temps just make it that more likely he homers. Soto has been on fire lately, with two HR’s over his last three games along with two stolen bases. His power and speed combo at this low of a salary in a great matchup make him unfadable to me in cash games. Bogaerts ($3,000) and Cronenworth ($2,800) are also swinging hot bats and come at fantastic salaries for a great value stack, and Tatis ($3,700) is still pretty affordable for a full Padres stack.
- If you still have room in your main build then I’d complete it with some Mariners bats, as their entire projected lineup remains underpriced. Rodriguez ($3,400), Suarez ($2,900), and Hernandez ($2,800) are a top value stack with the platoon advantage on Waldichuk. Crawford ($2,800) and Kelenic ($3,300) are still strong plays even in the L/L matchup and Jose Caballero ($2,400) is a fine punt option at 2B/3B. I like taking higher than 1.5 hits+runs+rbis for Rodriguez on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo offer.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- I’m jamming in Miller ($10,100) and Senga ($9,200) as my cash game SPs, and even if I have to sacrifice a bat or two to fit them, I’m not going to gamble on the other cheap options like Alcantara ($8,300) or Cortes ($8,100) outside of GPPs.
- Soto ($5,800) and Soler ($5,500) are much more expensive compared to FD, so if you can’t fit both, I’d go with Soto today. De La Cruz ($4,000) is still at a great price for Miami exposure in your main build, along with Wendle ($3,000).
- Jake Cronenworth ($4,200) is one of my favorite p/$ plays of the slate on DK, and you can fit him with Matt Carpenter ($2,900) for a great value SD mini stack. Some Seattle bats are still pretty affordable, as Kelenic ($4,600), Suarez ($4,400), Crawford ($3,500), and Hernandez ($3,900) are great options to pick and choose from to help fill out your main build for cheap. Pollock ($2,300) and Caballero ($2,600) are also in play for even cheaper.
- Boston also offers some nice value today, as Justin Turner ($3,700), Rob Refsnyder ($2,800), and Enrique Hernandez ($3,300) all come at great prices with the platoon advantage on Anderson. Also for cheap with the platoon advantage today are some Washington bats in Meneses ($3,000), Candelario ($3,200), and Garrett ($2,800).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!