MLB DFS Slate Preview: Wednesday, May 3
Erik Wardenburg previews the Wednesday, May 3rd slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Eight games on today’s main slate, including another MLB debut, as Jake Irvin gets the start for Washington. We have one game that could cause some rain issues, but overall solid weather today that will see a couple games in the 70s.
Coors Field didn’t produce like usual yesterday, as both pitchers were very solid, but today I’m expecting that 12 run game total to have a much better chance of hitting the over. Let’s get to some news, notes, and MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- CLE/NYY is our biggest weather concern today, as a batch of rain could end up sitting over the stadium for hours. This batch could end up being near the ballpark instead of over it and may end up not being as strong as models show now. Check this game a few hours closer to lock to see if the YELLOW/ORANGE rating gets better or worse. **(Update: This game is now just YELLOW rated so less risk).
- TOR/BOS and SEA/OAK will also have some rain, with BOS looking at a potential late start but likely to play fine. OAK is looking similar and should play after a potential late-start, but it is the last game of the night, so there is some risk as there’d be no players to swap to if this game does get the unlikely PPD.
- BAL/KC, LAA/STL, and MIL/COL are today’s best hitting weather games as they’ll be in the 60s-70s. MIN/CHW is our coldest game with temps in the 40s along with 10mph wind blowing in from left, so bump to the pitchers here.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are more likely to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- The White Sox made a flurry of moves yesterday, putting Gonzalez on IL, sending Colas and Sosa to the minors, and calling up Billy Hamilton. I’d expect Sheets and Haseley to get most of the third OF spot starts against righties, while Hamilton may see some starts against lefties.
- Jake Bauers is back in the lineup for the Yankees hitting 7th, and Kiner-Falefa is in there instead of the lefty bats of Cabrera or Hicks.
- Tyrone Taylor came off the IL for Milwaukee yesterday, and should get another start today against the lefty Freeland.
- Julio Rodriguez continues to deal with a back issue that saw him get late-scratched yesterday. He’s playing in the last game of the night, so have a backup plan ready as he could be in the lineup at first and end up out again.
- The Brewers are my top stack again as they get a better matchup with Freeland today. Freeland has allowed 5 HRs and 14 ERs over his last three starts, and is currently allowing a .280 average to righties, which Milwaukee should have at least 7 of in their lineup tonight. The Rockies also get a much better matchup than yesterday and are a top stack to target against Lauer, who is allowing a .310 average to righties this season. TOR, BAL, and CHC are my next favorite stacks today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Ohtani ($11,100) is expensive today, but he still has the highest ceiling on almost every slate he pitches on. If I have the salary I will do my best to fit him in as my cash game SP. Logan Gilbert ($9,800) and Shane Bieber ($9,600) are the next two I could see as cash game options, as both draw solid matchups against the A’s and Yankees, respectively. Gilbert would be my choice between these two, as the A’s are a much worse offense than the Yankees, and Gilbert has shown more strikeout upside this season compared to Bieber. Bieber is still a stud in my mind, but four straight starts with only four strikeouts and 2+ ER in each is hard to ignore. I will let others take the shot in cash games on this being a bounce back game for him.
- Dylan Cease ($8,900), Louie Varland ($8,500), and Alek Manoah ($8,400) are cheaper SPs that I will definitely have exposure to in GPPs, but could also see people using in cash games. They all have big upside and will allow you fit a lot more expensive bats than Ohtani will, along with the fact they are all pitching in cold weather with wind blowing in which is big for SPs. Stroman, Schmidt, Gibson, Mikolas, and Sears are other guys I like for GPPs.
- George Springer ($2,800) and Daulton Varsho ($2,700) continue to drop in salary, and I just can’t fade either at those prices on one of the top projected offenses of the slate. If you need more reason to play Springer, he’s 8 for 18 in his career vs. Pivetta with zero strikeouts.
- From Milwaukee, Willy Adames ($3,700) is the highest-upside bat and the first guy I’m looking to use. William Contreras ($3,300), Mike Brosseau ($2,800), and Luke Voit ($2,800) are cheaper bats that I will look to target next. CJ Cron ($3,500) is my favorite target from COL at a great price with the platoon advantage, and for cheaper Elias Diaz ($3,200) would be my next target. I have to mention Charlie Blackmon ($3,200) too as he’s hitting .500 in 24 career ABs against Lauer with just three strikeouts, and could see lower ownership with the L/L matchup.
- Swanson ($3,100), Happ ($3,000), and Suzuki ($2,800) remain an excellent value stack for the Cubs. I also really love the cheap BAL stack of Rutschman ($3,300), Santander ($2,900), and Stowers ($2,100).
- SEA and KC also offer some great value bats to consider today in Teoscar Hernandez ($2,800), Eugenio Suarez ($2,600), AJ Pollock ($2,500), Bobby Witt ($3,000), Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,000), Salvador Perez ($2,700), and MJ Melendez ($2,500).
- For the price, matchup, and upside, Louie Varland ($6,000) is my favorite p/$ SP on DK and my favorite cash game target. Logan Gilbert ($8,500) also comes at a fantastic price against the A’s, and I will strongly consider him over Ohtani ($11,400) if I need the salary and the weather doesn’t get worse in Oakland closer to lock. Alek Manoah ($7,200) is one of my favorite GPP plays at a fantastic salary, while Dylan Cease ($10,300) will likely go very low-owned at such a close price to Ohtani who should get most of the high-priced SP ownership.
- Adames ($6,100) and Bryant ($5,900) are crazy expensive for the Coors Field bats, and I likely won’t have either in my main build at those prices. I’d rather get more bats at better prices from that game, like Contreras ($4,800), Brosseau ($3,500), Voit ($3,600), Cron ($5,100), Profar ($3,800), and Diaz ($4,500).
- Springer ($5,200) and Varsho ($4,700) remain my top targets from TOR, while Cody Bellinger ($4,300) remains too cheap and is my favorite target from the Cubs. Check out our Underdog Fantasy promo offer for new signups, where I like taking higher 1.5 total bases for Springer today.
- Baltimore has a few cheap bats to consider for your main build in Santander ($4,400), Mountcastle ($4,700), Frazier ($2,500), and Stowers ($2,000). Suarez ($3,700), Hernandez ($4,000), and Pollock ($3,100) remain a strong value stack from Seattle.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!