MLB DFS Slate Preview: Wednesday, May 31
Erik Wardenburg previews the Wednesday, May 31st slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Slightly different main slates today between FD and DK, as FD starts at 6:40 PM EST with a 7-gamer that will include SD/MIA, and DK will start at 7:07 PM EST with a 6-gamer that doesn’t include SD/MIA.
Three teams are standing out as the clear top offenses to target, while the Yankees continue to destroy their projected run totals with three straight games of 10 runs scored. They currently have the lowest projected run total of the slate against George Kirby, but that still doesn’t make Kirby anything close to a cash game lock.
It should be a fun, high-scoring slate as three games have totals of 9.5+ runs currently, so let’s get to the news and notes for today, along with some MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Very quiet day as far as weather goes, as only two games will have to be played fully outdoors and there’s no rain in sight. CIN/BOS will be in the mid to low 70s with 9mph wind out to left, and PHI/NYM will be in the high 60s with 9mph wind out to left as well.
- SD/MIA, MIL/TOR, MIN/HOU, COL/ARI, and NYY/SEA are all in domes today, so the roof status for those games is the only other weather news.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Bryan De La Cruz moved to the leadoff spot against a lefty yesterday and delivered with a huge game. Against another lefty today he’ll stay in the leadoff spot, and they may just keep him there against righties if he continues to mash. Cooper is getting a day off, so Gurriel will handle 1B and hit cleanup and Soler will DH.
- Jesse Winker landed on the IL yesterday, and Abraham Toro was called up to take his spot. Contreras is DH-ing so Caratini will catch, while Toro will immediately slot in to the lineup at 3B batting sixth. Kiermaier is back in the lineup for TOR after missing a couple games, while Belt is getting a day off.
- Casas is getting a day off for Boston, so Turner will play 1B, Yoshida will DH, and Refsnyder will join the lineup and hit fifth. The Reds have all their usuals against a lefty SP, but are mixing the order up a bit with Newman at leadoff.
- Against a lefty today, I’d expect COL to start Elehuris Montero, who is currently taking Blackmon’s spot as he remains on the bereavement list. Bryant is getting a day off, so Tovar will hit second and Jones will get a rare start vs. a lefty.
- Jose Altuve is getting a day off for Houston, so Dubon will hit leadoff and play 2B. Bohm is out for Philly as he deals with a hamstring issue, while Harper is back in the lineup after sitting yesterday.
- The Twins will be without Buxton, Correa, and Lewis today making Hunter Brown an even better SP play. Instead they’re going with Solano, Farmer, and Taylor with Julien at leadoff.
- Anthony Rizzo said he’s hopeful for a Friday return to the lineup, so I’d expect him out again today. We’ll likely see a similar lineup as last night, with Calhoun hitting third, Bauers at 1B, and possibly another Greg Allen start after homering yesterday.
- It’s a tough call as to who is the top stack between TOR, BOS, and ARI, as all are in great spots at home against weak righty SPs with projected team totals over 5.4 runs. I’ll be stacking all three of them up in various ways in GPPS and will definitely have exposure to each in cash games too. PHI, CIN, HOU, and COL are lower-owned stacks I like having exposure to today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Hunter Brown ($10,500) only went up $200 in salary after going for 55 FP last start, and at home against a Twins team with just a 3.45 run total currently, he’s my cash game SP1 today. The Yankees have a similar projected run total, and Kirby ($9,200) is pretty cheap. However, he’s just a GPP option for me today as this Yankees team is still much more potent than Minnesota, especially with the way Judge is hitting. Alek Manoah ($8,000) continues to be extremely tempting at this low price, and he will have more big games this year, so I would definitely have exposure to him in some capacity today at home against MIL. Clarke Schmidt ($7,700) is another guy I like a lot for this cheap of a salary in a pitchers’ park, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in some cash game lineups today. Nola, Snell, Garrett, and Varland are other SPs today that I like for a GPP pool.
- We definitely want Boston exposure in cash games as they are almost at a 6-run projected team total. Rafael Devers ($3,400) is at his lowest price of the season after dropping another $100 overnight. Verdugo ($3,300) and Yoshida ($3,600) are also very affordable and solid cash game targets, and Justin Turner ($2,900) is a nice cheap option to help complete a full stack along with Duran ($3,100) or Refsnyder ($2,500). I like taking higher than 1.5 total bases for Devers on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo offer.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Arizona is in a great spot at home against Lamet, who’s allowed 9 ER over his last three appearances which included just 1 completed inning. Smith ($2,700), Marte ($3,000), and Carroll ($3,500) are all too cheap and are probably my favorite stack of the slate, as there is so much HR and SB upside there.
- George Springer ($3,100) remains too cheap and is a top OF target in cash games. Daulton Varsho ($2,900) is hitting cleanup today and is another great value OF to stack with Springer.
- Turner ($2,800) and Schwarber ($3,000) are solid value options from PHI, Bregman ($3,100), and Tucker ($3,300), who I’d target for value from HOU. If you want some cheap COL exposure against Henry, I’d go with either Tovar ($2,500), Diaz ($2,800), or Grichuk ($3,200). De La Cruz ($2,800) is worth mentioning as a top GPP value bat that could go very low-owned against Snell.
- Hunter Brown ($10,000) remains the SP1 for cash games, and right now, I’m leaning toward Alek Manoah ($6,900) as SP2. Manoah dropped $1k since his last start, and in an above-average matchup with MIL, he is just a bit too cheap for someone who can put up 20 FP any start and will likely have plenty of run support for a win. Schmidt ($7,700) is just a bit more salary and also in consideration for cash game SP2, while Nola ($9,100) would be my choice if you want to spend up for a bit more of a ceiling.
- Much different hitter pricing on DK today as Devers ($6,100) is the second most expensive bat and nowhere near as much of a must-play as he is on FD. For BOS exposure, I like going with either Turner ($3,600), Duran ($3,700), or Refsnyder ($2,600), and then if you have the extra salary treating Devers and Yoshida ($5,500) as more of luxury options.
- Pavin Smith ($3,100) is my top p/$ bat of the slate and should be easy to find a spot for at either 1B or OF, while Marte ($4,800) and Carroll ($5,200) are still pretty affordable and are top targets as well. Grichuk ($3,900), Tovar ($2,900), and Montero ($2,500) are my top targets from COL for the price.
- Springer ($4,800), Chapman ($4,600) and Varsho ($3,600) are my top p/$ targets from Toronto, with Varsho being my priority for the price and his cleanup spot today.
- The Reds currently have a decent run total of around 4.5, so I don’t mind some one-offs from them in cash games. Guys like McLain ($3,700), Steer ($3,800), Stephenson ($4,300), and Fairchild ($2,300) are fine plays for the price at a variety of positions and make for a great value stack in GPPs.
- If you need an extreme salary saver stack, then the trio of Calhoun ($2,200), Kiner-Falefa ($2,300), and Bauers ($2,000) are worth taking a shot on in GPPs as they will go extremely low-owned against Kirby and you can stack the top bats around them.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!