MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, April 7
Justin Carlucci walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on the collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Welcome back! We have games all over the place today, but our focus will be on the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates. It’s a short main this evening and there is one major difference between both sites. The Tampa Bay vs. Oakland game is featured on FanDuel (with a 6:40 ET lock time), but it’s not available on DraftKings.
Let’s dive into it and kick off the weekend.
Chalk Stack(s) — Dodgers and Nationals
Let’s start with the Dodgers, who are playing the 9:40 ET nightcap on Friday.
Good ol’ Madison Bumgarner should be on the bump for Arizona. If you’re crawling out of a decade-long hole, I’ll catch you up. First of all, how is this guy only 32 years old? Anyway, he’s not “the guy” anymore. Dating back to 2022, Bumgarner, a former world champion and four-time all-star, is striking out just 15.9% of hitters and owns an xFIP well over five. All of his rates are just bad. You name it – ground balls, line drives, fly balls, hard contact – all are well below league average for a pitcher.
The southpaw, to his credit, has fared much better against lefties than righties. While LHB are still putting the ball in play, RHB are hitting him to a tune of a .357 wOBA and .229 ISO. Don’t get me wrong, all hitters against Bum are definitely in play this evening.
If you’re playing these Dodgers, my lean is to have more exposure to these right-handed bats (and I’m hoping Trayce Thompson is in the lineup – a lot of raw power there) and sprinkle in those stud lefties (Freeman, Muncy) throughout your builds.
Early pOWN% have Mookie Bets and JD Martinez checking in well over 30%. If that holds true by late afternoon, they are de facto cash-game plays for optimal-type builds/contests. Betts owns a .293 ISO and 48% fly-ball rate against lefties since the beginning of 2022, while Muncy checks out at .270 and 53%. If you’re trying to exclude on in your GPP stack, I’d much rather have Mookie tonight than Muncy.
As for tournaments, Trayce Thompson hit three homers on April Fools’ Day. I’m not sure if that was a joke, but he does have a lot of pop. At a current 1% pOWN, I’d gladly take an overweight stance on him and a chance at being fooled against a bad pitcher.
It looks like the public is willing to disregard recency bias and go back to the Nationals on Friday after Coors laid a total dud yesterday. Who drew up a 1-0 ballgame? Not this guy. However, Washington is currently checking in at the second-highest collective pOWN% and they’ll have a chance at redemption against Jose Urena.
Urena isn’t great at baseball, checking with a 5.27 xFIP, while striking out just 14% of hitters and walking 10% of them. He does do a good job of keeping the ball on the ground though, which ideally isn’t what we’re looking for. I think the Nationals’ path here is to BAPIP the heck out of him to get into that Colorado bullpen.
Stacking against ground-ball pitchers in tournaments just isn’t my thing. Urena throws over 50% sinkers to both sides of the plate. That being said, I’d be more prone to having a mini WAS stack tonight where I’m looking for some salary relief.
There is still only one National priced above $3.3K on DraftKings, which can help you pay up for pitching again. I’d want to look at these lefties, as Urena sports a .384 wOBA and an atrocious 12% BB rate against southpaws, which gives them more of a shot to at least get on base and potentially steal one or score. Keep an eye on Luis Garcia if he leads off today, while the switch-hitting Jeimer Candelario certainly has upside at $2.9K on DraftKings.
Current pOWN% shows Garcia, Candelario and Maneses carrying between 20-30% on FanDuel, so if you’re playing cash games, I think you can/should target one or two of them if it helps make your build work. Just make sure to check back before lock to see our current up-to-date pOWN%.