MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, June 14th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
This is a polarizing pitching slate. There are a ton of great pitching options at the top with a ton of vulnerable pitching in the middle and a couple of horrible pitchers at the bottom. Normally, the horrible pitchers are targeted at ownership rates that are too high for us to be aggressive on the best plays. That’s not the case today, though. We’re seeing every team under 10% pOWN with virtually no middle-class ownership tier. Everyone’s either near 10% or under 7% pOWN, so let’s simply look at the strong scenarios to bust the slate.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, June 14th
CHALKY STACK
Pirates at Ryan Feltner
There’s no real chalk on this slate, but the most-owned stack will likely be the Pirates visiting Coors Field. They guaranteed 9 innings of hitting against Ryan Feltner and the Rockies bad bullpen.
Feltner only surrenders a 5.6% barrel rate on a 25% fly-ball rate, but his contact rate is pretty high this season (79.2%). The Pirates have a sneaky amount of power when they make contact, highlighted by these big barrel rates against righties:
Oneil Cruz, 19.5%
Jack Suwinski, 14.8%
Bryan Reynolds, 11.1%
Andrew McCutchen, 10.7%
Add the cheap rates of Rowdy Tellez (8.5%) and cheap catcher Henry Davis (7.2%) and we can make full stacks pretty easily at a discount. Feltner isn’t a great pitcher to stack against because of his power prevention, but the Pirates salaries in Coors Field should be appealing to the field.
My stance is that there isn’t an obvious starter to attack with stacks on this slate, so bullpens are gonna matter a lot to me on this slate. The active members of the Rockies bullpen compile the worst xFIP on the slate (4.66), the second-worst SIERA (4.34), and a bottom-five HR/9 rate (1.07).
I have no clue where I’m going on this slate at the moment, but the Pirates are going low-owned enough for me to have them in my single-entry pool, where I normally fade Coors. In MME, it won’t cost us more than 20-25 lineups to double the field on Pirates exposure, which is pretty cheap for Coors, so going overweight is fine. Just remember that Feltner isn’t a bad pitcher. In PNC Park, I’m not sure the Pirates would even be in consideration for me.
All things considered, I have eight stacks in a jumble. The Pirates are at the top with low ownership for Coors, but not much separates them from the other stacks we’re going to discuss in this space today.
TOP STACKS
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