MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, June 30
Derek Farnsworth walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
It’s not only Friday, but the Friday of a holiday weekend (at least for those of us in the U.S.). The Fourth of July is right around the corner. While I could do without fireworks every night until one in the morning, it’s a holiday that I do enjoy. So much of the enjoyment of holidays comes down to tradition and ever since I was a little kid myself, my family would drive down to a small town in Southern Utah and celebrate the Fourth with my grandparents and all of our family down there. It’s the same parade, the same food, and the same ice cream parlor every year, yet it never gets old. I’ve been lucky enough to share the traditions with my little one and it’s something he looks forward to every year. I know you are here for baseball, but sometimes it’s nice to talk about something other than sports for a minute.
As for tonight, there are 12 games on the main slate and plenty of options to choose from on the stacking menu.
Chalk Stack – White Sox vs. Luis Medina
While we do have a game in Coors Field tonight, the White Sox are slightly edging out the Tigers in terms of ownership. They are currently checking in at 8.6% on DraftKings and 10.9% ownership on FanDuel. Compared to most slates, that’s far from the chalkiest stack that we’ve seen in MLB DFS. The simulations are a big fan of the White Sox, as they are showing up in the optimal lineup between 13% and 14% of the time. This means that while the White Sox will be popular, they still project as a nice team to stack on this slate.
Now, let’s take a look at the matchup. This season, Luis Medina owns a 5.44 xERA with a 21% strikeout rate and a 12% walk rate. He’s right around league average in terms of his ground ball rate (42%) and he gives up a significant amount of hard contact (35%). When it comes to his splits, he has allowed a .341 wOBA to lefties and a .408 wOBA to righties this season. His reverse-splits bode well for the White Sox, as they have a right-handed heavy lineup (especially at the key spots in the order).
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