MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, September 20th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Projected ownership projects to be spread out pretty evenly on this slate, where we can easily stack up half of the teams. Today, in this space, we’ll discuss where I’m going to be the heaviest, but if there’s a spot you really love, go for it. We’re prioritizing pitching with our money, but with bats, we should play whoever we want.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our PrizePicks promo code and Underdog Fantasy promo code, two of the best DFS apps available today.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, September 20th
TOP STACK
Braves at Valente Bellozo
The Marlins used up 4 relievers and a position player to pitch through the Dodgers scoring 20 runs on them yesterday. This is a bad ballpark for hitting, but the Braves pack a lot of power. They can score 2 runs with a bunch of warning track outs or straight-up mash the Marlins for double-digit runs and face another position player pitching toward the end of the game. The range of outcomes is really wide, but the quantity of power in their lineup probably gives them the highest ceiling.
We don’t normally target hitting in loanDepot Park, but Valente Bellozo is pretty bad. He has a 5.08 ERA, with just 6.02 K/9, allowing a .228 ISO on a 10.5% barrel rate. The Braves should make a lot of contact and frequently get the ball in the air, so we should target Bellozo with these high barrel rates against righties:
Marcell Ozuna, 16.5%
Matt Olson, 12.8%
Jorge Soler, 12.4%
Ramon Laureano, 11.7%
Michael Harris, 9.9%
Sean Murphy, 9.2%
There’s no stack projected as chalk on this slate, so we don’t need to dumpster dive to diversify our full stacks very much. We can stick to these 6 guys to make our stacks.
I don’t know where I’m going in single entry at all, but the Braves are where I’m most likely to double the field’s exposure in my 20-lineup build because Bellozo is pretty bad, and there are a lot of bats that I wanna cycle through.
PIVOT STACKS
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
